NFL Week 16 Preview: Stats and Storylines for 7 Games on FOX

It's a full weekend of NFL football on FOX.

There's a pair of Saturday games before the regular Sunday afternoon slate, with several of the matchups having major playoff stakes. There are seven games in total, including four where a team can clinch a playoff berth with a little help. Here's our programming guide to the stats and storylines we'll be talking about with only three weeks left in the regular season.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Saturday, 5 p.m. ET)

This should be another get-right game for Philadelphia's offense. The injury to Jayden Daniels has obscured a rough defensive slide for Washington and Dan Quinn. The Commanders have dropped from 13th in total defense last year to 31st, and from 18th in scoring defense to 26th. They ended an eight-game skid by beating the Giants, but will go the rest of the season with backup Marcus Mariota. 

These teams play twice in the final three weeks. One area where the Commanders can test the Eagles is with their run game, which ranks fourth in the NFL at 137 yards per game. The Eagles had a top-10 run defense the last two years, but they're 22nd this season — getting defensive tackle Jalen Carter back at some point will help with their defensive front. 

The Eagles can clinch the NFC East and a rare repeat division title with a win or a Cowboys loss.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Chicago went 1-5 in the division last season, and for all its success in going 10-4 this year, it's just 1-3 in the division. So, it's a huge game if the Bears want their first division title since 2018. 

The Bears have seen midseason breakouts from their top two draft picks — tight end Colston Loveland, limited to 116 yards and no touchdowns in the first six games, now has 382 yards and four scores in the last eight games. Wide receiver Luther Burden III has 328 receiving yards in the last six, although he'll miss Saturday's game. 

Who steps up for Green Bay without Micah Parsons? One potential answer is 2023 first-round pick Lukas Van Ness, who has two starts in three seasons and 8.5 sacks in limited work. 

In three games against Green Bay, Caleb Williams has a 66% completion percentage with three touchdown passes and one interception — that one was significant in the final minute of the loss at Lambeau two weeks ago.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys need to win out and have the Eagles lose out to make the playoffs. The Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts. 

Should we start talking more about Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter? Los Angeles has won six of seven and held opponents to 20 or less in all six wins, including both of last year's Super Bowl teams in the last two weeks. The Chargers are a top-five defense in sacks, interceptions, third down and red zone. But the Cowboys have scored 40-plus points in three home games this year, so it's a fun challenge as the Chargers set themselves up to be a favorite on the road in wild-card weekend.

This game has the second-highest point total of the week, only behind Steelers-Lions. If it's a shootout, can Dak Prescott avoid throwing picks against a Chargers defense that has 17 interceptions this season?

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

New York's eight-game losing streak has faded rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart from the spotlight, but despite being without Malik Nabers or Cam Skattebo for much of the year, he has 13 passing touchdowns against only four interceptions. That's the same totals Brock Purdy finished his rookie year with. The only rookie quarterbacks with a better ratio in the last five seasons are C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams. 

It was easy to write off J.J. McCarthy after 10 interceptions in his first six NFL starts, but he's bounced back nicely, with five touchdowns against one interception in wins against Dallas and Washington. 

If you had Justin Jefferson ranking fifth on the Vikings in touchdown receptions, congrats. He has just two scores despite playing all 14 games, a testament to how much opponents focus on limiting him, especially in the red zone. In the last four games, Jefferson has a total of 85 receiving yards, with 10 catches on 24 targets.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Panthers did the Buccaneers a massive favor by blowing a 10-point lead to the Saints and losing last week. Had they won, they could have clinched the division with a win on Sunday, but now the advantage is back with the Bucs, whom they face again in Week 18. If the Buccaneers win either game and beat the Dolphins in Week 17, they win a fifth straight division title.

The Bucs have won nine of 10 against the Panthers, but last year's game in Charlotte wasn't easy. They needed a field goal as time expired to go to overtime and win there. The Panthers finish the year with three games against their 2022 castoffs, with two against Mayfield and Sam Darnold next week. 

Two areas where Carolina's defense could make things easier for Baker Mayfield: they're 30th in sack percentage and 29th on third downs, two weak spots for Tampa Bay in their midseason slide.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Broncos are already in the playoffs, and the Jaguars can clinch their own spot with a win and a loss by either the Colts or Texans. The Broncos are the last remaining NFL team undefeated at home, riding an 11-game win streak and in control of the top seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. If the Jaguars can win, they'll match their best win total in 20 years with two games still left to be played. 

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been a nice spark for Jacksonville since the trade deadline, and was rewarded with his play with an extension on Thursday. But his only career multi-touchdown game was in Denver in 2023, and he has more touchdowns against the Broncos than any other team. 

For the Jaguars, running back Travis Etienne needs 51 rushing yards to hit 1,000 for the third time in his four NFL seasons.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

In a hot-seat battle of head coaches trying to avoid getting fired, it's probably a smart week to pull out the win. 

Arizona has lost six straight and given up 40 points or more in four of them — the Cardinals in their history had never given up 40-plus points more than three times in any season. Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett, 33, has already matched his career high with 18 touchdowns despite starting only nine games. 

The Falcons are coming off a comeback win against the Bucs, and rookie edge rusher James Pearce has eight sacks, well within range to become just the sixth rookie to reach double-digit sacks in the last 14 years. The other five are Micah Parsons, Josh Hines-Allen, Maxx Crosby, Bradley Chubb and Joey Bosa. 

Arizona's Calais Campbell is ageless at 39. He's had the first five-sack season by anyone that old since Bruce Smith in 2002-03. 

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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