NFL Week 16 injury report: Bucs lose three offensive stars

By Dr. Matt Provencher
FOX Sports Injury & Performance Analyst

When it comes to injuries in the NFL, the fates can be fickle.

Just last weekend, we wrote about how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a decided advantage when it came to overall team health.

Then, in a loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night, the Bucs lost three offensive stars — Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — in one fell swoop. Talk about bad luck.

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As we head into Week 16, though, there are other teams also dealing with some crucial injuries.

Here is the lowdown on seven key injuries, with players' expected time missed and impact on production when they return.

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

Injury: Ankle sprain

Impact: Affects change of direction, quickness, power

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-3 games

Production upon return: When Mixon returns, his production will likely be down 10%, and he might have to deal with nagging pain and injuries after that. After three games, he should level out to his usual highly productive self.

Notes: Mixon had a defender land directly on his ankle as he was tackled while it was plantar-flexed. He couldn’t continue, and the medical staff will have to focus on swelling control and pain control this week. We will have to see how Mixon progresses through practice this week, but if he does try to play, the staff will have to tape the ankle and most likely spat it as well to give him as much stability as possible. 

Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers

Injury: Hamstring strain

Impact: Affects strength, breaking tackles, direction change

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 2-4 games

Production upon return: We would expect Fournette’s snap percentage to decrease about 10-15% when he returns to make sure that he doesn’t reinjure the hamstring.

Notes: Fournette had been dealing with his ankle injury and attempted to play through it. Unfortunately, he sustained a hamstring injury that caused him to leave the game. The team has talked about placing him on IR. If this happens, he will be out for a minimum of three games. That possibility suggests that the strain is pretty severe. At Fournette's position, he will need to allow ample time for the soft tissue injury to heal. 

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

Injury: Hamstring strain

Impact: Affects jumping, route-running, quickness

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-3 games

Production upon return: Evans needs time to recover, and when he does return, he will likely experience a decrease in productivity of approximately 15%.

Notes: Evans went down early in Tampa’s loss to the Saints on Sunday, one of the three big offensive weapons the Bucs lost. We will have to watch as practice reports are released this week to get an understanding of the severity of his hamstring injury, but Evans will most likely be out there if he feels he can because of the other injuries. It’s important with soft tissue injuries, however, to give them proper time to heal. If you don't, they can turn into nagging injuries that keep you out of multiple games moving forward — see Julio Jones. Evans is strong and has played through injuries in the past, but in this case, he might take a game to rest and recover, unless it's minor and he thinks he can be productive.

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers

Injury: ACL tear

Impact: Affects cutting/pivoting, jumping, strength

Surgery: Yes

Potential time missed: At least 6-7 months

Production upon return: Godwin will return next season, and assuming he has been able to get his quad strength back, he will be ready to go. But he will have to test the knee before he feels comfortable getting back into game situations.

Notes: ACL injuries are a tough recovery. They require a lot from the athlete and medical staff to really work every day, sometimes rehabbing multiple times a day to get back to the level of a professional football player. Godwin will have to have surgery and then begin working on regaining his motion. From there, he will work on strength and proprioception exercises. Finally, he will return to football exercises and test the knee to see whether it is ready for game situations. This whole process can take, at a minimum, six or seven months, but it's usually approximately nine-to-12 months before a player is optimized for NFL action.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Broncos

Injury: Concussion

Impact: Affects decision-making, cognitive function

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: Once Bridgewater completes the concussion protocol, he should be back and ready to go at full capacity. In addition, our data shows that players in his position actually exceed their usual stats by about 8-10% in their first games back after going through the concussion protocol.

Notes: Bridgewater hit the turf hard Sunday and had to be carted off the field and taken to a hospital. The good news is the team said he is doing well and was released from the hospital. He will now enter the NFL’s concussion protocol before he can return. This is something the NFL has tried to make a priority, and his safety will be paramount before he is allowed to return. I expect Bridgewater will be on the field as soon as possible, but I would imagine he will most likely miss this week as he recovers. We will watch his progression through the protocol this week. 

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants

Injury: Achilles rupture

Impact: Affects push-off, power, jumping

Surgery: Yes

Potential time missed: 6-9 months

Production upon return: Not only does snap percentage usually decrease upon immediate return from this injury, but performance also tends to decrease and rarely returns to preinjury stats. We hope Shepard can climb the mountain others couldn’t, but it will be an uphill battle.

Notes: Shepard came off the line Sunday and immediately went to the turf clutching his ankle. It was pretty clear then that he had torn his Achilles, and that was confirmed soon after. Shepard has been dealing with a calf injury this year, and this is the last thing anyone wanted to see. He will have to have this surgically repaired, after which the work on motion and strengthening will begin. When he gets closer to returning to football next season, he will be tested on how he feels with football activities. These can be difficult to return from and can lead to some nagging pains throughout the season. It will be a six-to-nine-month recovery until he is ready to resume NFL activities.

Julio Jones, WR, Titans

Injury: Hamstring strain

Impact: Affects deceleration, jumping, direction change

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-3 games

Production upon return: For Jones, who has been battling these injuries all season — and in previous seasons — we expect a 25-30% decrease in production, as these are compiled injuries. In addition, he has a high likelihood of not completing his first game back due to hamstring aggravation.

Notes: Jones has been plagued by hamstring injuries throughout his career. He had just come off IR for his hamstring, so this is disappointing. As the Titans push for the playoffs, this could be a crucial loss, especially with A.J. Brown also injured. Brown might return as soon as this week, but even then, his output will likely be down. Jones will have to continue rehabbing and will practice this week in at least a limited capacity. It will be interesting to see how he progresses, but it is important for the team to not push this and to let him rest so that their big receiver can return healthy. They will need him if they make the playoffs. 

Renowned orthopedist Dr. Matt Provencher and his company, Proven Performance Technology (PPT), deliver data-driven injury insights to football fans. In this first-of-a-kind role as Athlete Injury and Performance Analyst for FOX Sports’ digital platforms, Provencher provides important predictive player health and recovery information about post-injury performance, the impact of weather, field conditions and more.