NFL Week 15: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks
You’ve done the unthinkable and escaped elimination your NFL survivor pool. Stay the course and heed these stone cold locks for NFL Week 15.
My NFL Week 14 stone cold locks were flawless as I went 4-0. The Cincinnati Bengals spoiled Robert Griffin III’s return, the Detroit Lions languished through injury to win over the Chicago Bears, the Minnesota Vikings fought for a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Atlanta Falcons struck the final nail into Jeff Fisher’s coffin as head coach of the Los Angeles Rams.
As always, before we get into my NFL Week 15 survivor pool stone cold locks, it’s imperative to push you in the right direction and away from shaky matchups.
Avoid these picks at all costs:
New England Patriots over the Denver Broncos: The Pats are coming off a big win over the Baltimore Ravens at home and are favored by three points on the road. However, they might run into some trouble against a Denver pass defense that’s allowed the fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. If LeGarrette Blount stumbles out of the block, Denver could capitalize.
Oakland Raiders over the San Diego Chargers: There’s no logical reason for my aversion to this pick. Oakland’s won three of the last five and has only lost one on the road while the Chargers are the Walking Dead with a .500 record in San Diego. Yet, wouldn’t it be so like the Bolts to throw a wrench into everyone’s plans?
Dallas Cowboys over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There are a couple of ways this game goes down: One is Dak Prescott proves his haters wrong amidst talks of his benching and delivers a diamond of a performance; The other is the Bucs further cement themselves as serious contenders for the NFC crown. If Tampa’s defense continues to churn out turnovers, Dallas will be in trouble.
Minnesota Vikings over the Indianapolis Colts: Does anyone know what to think in this contest? The Vikes are favored by four points at home and are fighting for their playoff lives. Meanwhile, the Colts are on the brink of being eliminated from postseason contention. You don’t think Chuck Pagano, Andrew Luck, and T.Y. Hilton are going to pull out all the stops? Indy’s defense has stepped up their game over the last month.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cincinnati Bengals: If Le’Veon Bell gets on track, this game could get out of hand, but if the Bengals can bring the thunder and lay the lumber, Cincy could come out on top. This is the one game that the Bengals will be the most ‘up’ for, a chance to put a kink in Pittsburgh’s road to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Tennessee Titans: Which Titans team will show up? The one that lost to the Chargers and got swept by the Colts or the one that took down the Broncos and Packers? Tennessee has the potential to be the most dangerous squad in the playoffs. A win over KC would open eyes around the AFC and make them the Tampa Bay Bucs of that conference.
Buffalo Bills over the Cleveland Browns: The Bills were a hard team to beat. They gave the Raiders all they could handle and put a scare into Pittsburgh, picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times, but allowing Bell to have a career day. There are questions about Tyrod Taylor and doubt surrounding Rex Ryan’s tenure. Doesn’t it seem appropriate that RG3 gets his act together and pulls out a stunner for Cleveland’s first win?
Houston Texans over the Jacksonville Jaguars: How much confidence can one have in Houston? Sure, Jacksonville’s offense is an unmitigated disaster, but the Jags defense has kept them in games. The Texans are favored by six points at home, but could end up sleepwalking their way to a bitter defeat and kissing their postseason chances goodbye.
Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears: What?!? The Pack are favored by six points on the road and have reeled off three straight impressive wins after four-game losing streak. However, this is the definition of a trap game. Cheeseheads should be on upset alert. Don’t underestimate the significance of Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury and the Bears pass defense. Green Bay will need their revamped run game to come through.
With the stinkers out of the way, let’s get to the stone cold locks…
Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) warms up before game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks over the Los Angeles Rams
History would dictate that the Rams would defy science and score yet another upset over the Seahawks. The Rams have won four of the past five matchups, despite sporting the worse record in those meetings. This go-around will be a little different as the Rams have hit rock bottom.
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After a handful of subpar seasons, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher was shown the door. Todd Gurley claimed the Rams are running a “middle school” offense. Many have expressed their concerns about first-overall pick Jared Goff as he’s earned a quarterback rating of 66 or less in three of his four starts. He’ll face off against a Seahawks defense that is third in points allowed and ninth in passing yards given up per game. It won’t help that L.A.’s second-leading receiver, Brian Quick, is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.
Seattle has lost two of its last three and must be licking its wounds after a total thrashing at Lambeau Field. Even though the Seahawks outgained the Packers, Russell Wilson tossed five interceptions. Despite the recent slide, Seattle is a completely different beast at home, where they’re undefeated through 14 weeks in the 2016 season. Expect Seattle to take out their frustration on a discombobulated Rams squad.
The Seahawks are favored by 15 points at home.
Dec 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) drops back to pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
New York Giants over the Detroit Lions
How quickly the tides can turn in the NFL. After their embarrassing Week 13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which Jason Pierre-Paul was lost for the rest of the regular season, the Giants rallied to put the clamps on the Cowboys and get the season sweep.
In all honesty, had Matthew Stafford not suffered torn ligaments and a dislocated finger in his throwing hand, this would be more of a toss-up. Granted, the Giants offense could very well be the worst in the league if it weren’t for Odell Beckham, Jr. They’re 25th in points scored and 27th in total yards gained. The run game is paltry and Eli Manning is in a horrendous slump. You could say OBJ is responsible for at least three of New York’s wins in the 2016 season. Well, the Big Blue funk stops here.
Though the Lions defense hasn’t allowed a lot of points (they’re 10th in points allowed) and their run defense is one of the best groups in the league, Detroit’s pass defense can be a point of weakness.
New York’s defense has earned their paycheck in just about every game this season. The opposition’s quarterback rating against their pass defense is second lowest only to the Denver Broncos. If the Giants offense just played average football, their defense could be the best in the league.
These two teams are evenly matched. Both offenses rely heavily on their passing attacks due to the lack of an adequate ground game. It’ll come down to Eli Manning bouncing back from a baffling stretch and Stafford’s hampered hand.
The Giants are favored by 4.5 points at home.
Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore Ravens over the Philadelphia Eagles
The Ravens almost pulled off a huge come-from-behind win over the Patriots in Foxborough and have shown the kind of bitter spirit that could carry them to an improbable Super Bowl appearance. No one’s really taken Baltimore seriously, though there are those who can’t help but get a pit in their stomach when facing them. They’ve now only got a 20 percent chance of winning the AFC North and a 30 percent chance of securing a playoff berth.
With their Week 14 loss to the Washington Redskins, the Eagles were essentially eliminated from the playoffs. As it currently stands, Philly’s got less than a one percent chance of advancing to the postseason. Most football followers could easily see Philadelphia trudging into Baltimore and getting manhandled. Say what you will about momentum, but a fire’s been lit under the Ravens while the wind has left the sails for the Eagles.
Baltimore’s 5-2 at home while Philly’s 1-6 on the road. The Ravens defense is ferocious. They’re first in the league against the run and fourth in points allowed. They’ll face an Eagles offense that is average to below average across most categories. Carson Wentz has not thrown more touchdowns than interceptions that past six games and has been sacked 18 times over the past eight weeks.
If only Joe Flacco had played like he’s played the past five weeks, the Ravens would be in a position to host a Divisional Round playoff game. Over those five games, Flacco has earned a quarterback rating of 92 or higher in four of those meetings. Joe’s been a man on a mission since the Week 11 loss to the Cowboys. Mix in a seething Steve Smith and the Ravens could ravage the rest of their schedule.
The Ravens are favored by six points at home.
Dec 11, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) celebrates after throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Falcons over the San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons stuck it to the Rams in Los Angeles Week 14 and should tear apart the Niners in Atlanta even with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu questionable for the contest. Atlanta’s three-game losing streak to San Fran will surely come to an end.
Normally, when your top two receivers aren’t in the lineup, your offense struggles. However, the Falcons flew on the wings of Matt Ryan and got big efforts from Taylor Gabriel, Aldrick Robinson, and Nick Williams. It didn’t hurt that Atlanta’s defense forced five turnovers.
Surprisingly, the Falcons have been lukewarm at home, going 3-3. On the other hand, the 49ers have yet to win a road game. Frisco is dead last in points allowed, passing yards per game, and rushing yards allowed per contest. On the flip side, the Dirty Birds are first in the NFL in points scored and third overall in passing yards per game. Those rankings should result in a points bonanza for Atlanta.
If the Niners have any shot at the upset, the burden lies on Colin Kaepernick. The Falcons pass defense is last in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. With the fourth most productive rushing attack in the league, San Francisco could utilize more play action to create optimal opportunities down the field. It would take his best effort of the season and an unthinkable collapse by Atlanta. With the Bucs breathing down Atlanta’s neck, they’ll come out firing on all cylinders.
The Falcons are favored by 14 points at home.