NFL Week 15 injury report: Analysis of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Trey Hendrickson, more

By Dr. Matt Provencher
FOX Sports Injury & Performance Analyst

Heading into the NFL's Week 15, you're fortunate if your team has not had to deal with some crucial injuries. Some teams have been hit harder than others.

The Baltimore Ravens, already one of the league's unluckiest teams health-wise, now have to worry about the status of quarterback Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, the Bills will have to closely monitor Josh Allen's foot. And losing Trey Hendrickson could prove a huge blow for the Bengals.

All of this is very important, as the health of any NFL team can have a direct impact on the standings. We've worked to quantify player and team health with the BUS, which you can learn about in the video below.

For more analysis of the NFL from Dr. Matt, follow him on Twitter or go to FantasyPredictors.com.

As far as this week goes, here is the lowdown on nine key injuries, with players' expected time missed and impact on production when they return.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

Injury: Ankle sprain

Impact: Affects pocket mobility, rushing, elusiveness 

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: Jackson is a rare athlete, and you can expect him to be out there in full force if he can. Data predicts, however, that his productivity will be down around 10-15%. I expect his passing to be about normal but suspect his mobility will be diminished depending on the severity of his symptoms.

Notes: Jackson is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. His mobility is one of the attributes that make him as dangerous as he is. Coach John Harbaugh has said that Jackson doesn’t have a high ankle sprain, which is great news. But even a low ankle sprain can hurt production. Although it’s not clear yet if Jackson will play in Week 15, I would say the chances are good that he is out there. We will watch and see how he progresses this week. If he can play, expect the medical staff to have him taped/braced up and protected while he is out there.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns

Injury: High ankle sprain

Impact: Affects power, cutting/pivoting/speed

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 1-3 games

Production upon return: Expect Hunt's snap percentage to be down about 20% in his first game back, then about 10% over the next two games, depending how he feels upon return.

Notes: The Browns are calling this an "ankle" injury. From video analysis, it looked to be more like a mechanism for a high-ankle-type injury. These can be difficult for running backs to return from, as they affect movement, cutting, power — basically everything a back has to do. Medical staff can tape and protect the ankle, but one bad twist during a tackle can send him back to the medical tent quickly. I would expect the Browns to give him at least this week to rest and recover and possibly next week, depending on the severity. Then they will see if he can ramp up football activities. They want to make sure he is healthy before putting him back in, especially considering that he recently missed time due to a separate calf injury. 

Leonard Williams, DE, Giants

Injury: Elbow

Impact: Affects tackling, pass rush, defensive positioning

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: Even if Williams can return this week, the data predicts nearly a 30% decrease in snap percentage when returning from elbow injuries. The Giants will want to make sure he can handle the defensive load before overdoing it and risking reinjury.

Notes: Originally, Williams and the Giants feared the worst: that he had suffered a very significant elbow injury that might end his season. However, further testing revealed that it wasn’t as bad as originally thought, and now there is a chance that he will play this weekend. We will watch his practice progression this week, but if he can play, it would be huge for a defense that needs him and huge for him, considering that he has never missed a game due to injury.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers

Injury: Ankle (potentially high ankle)

Impact: Affects change of direction, burst, strength

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: If this in fact a high ankle injury, Ekeler's snap percentage could be down 20% upon his return. If it is a low ankle injury, however, that number drops to about 10%. The severity of the injury will play a huge role in his return. 

Notes: From video analysis of the injury Ekeler suffered Sunday, it looks to be a possible high ankle injury. Chargers coach Brandon Staley has said that Ekeler is "fine" and that he could have gone back in. It's possible, though, that the ankle got worse after the game, once Ekeler’s adrenaline calmed down, especially considering that he missed Monday's practice. With this being a short week — the Chargers host the Chiefs on Thursday — can they tape it to allow him to play? Given the opponent and the fact that the Chargers are in the playoff hunt, they will play Ekeler if he can go. We will see if he practices Tuesday. If so, there is a good chance he suits up. 

Giovani Bernard, RB, Buccaneers

Injury: MCL injury/hip strain

Impact: Affects knee stability, direction change, postgame recovery

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: From three games to rest of season

Production upon return: Between the hip and MCL, you can expect Bernard's productivity to be down 10%-15%, even if he does return this season. If he can’t return and takes the offseason to heal, he will most likely be back to his normal productivity upon return.

Notes: Bernard was said to have a hip injury, and now he has an MCL injury as well. Most MCL injuries don’t need surgical intervention, but they do need time to heal. With his position — not to mention the amount of cutting and pivoting that he needs to do — Bernard needs to trust the stability of his knee. He was placed on IR by the team to give him time to rest for a minimum of three games before hopefully getting back into practice and testing the knee. Once he feels comfortable, he will return to the field. This means he will miss the remainder of the regular season but could be back for the playoffs depending on the severity of the injuries.

Josh Allen, QB, Bills

Injury: Left foot sprain/turf toe

Impact: Affects mobility, throwing follow-through, pocket presence

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: This type of injury usually can put athletes out for one or two games, but keep in mind that this is an important time of the season for the Bills. Regardless, a player's production usually drops about 10% in the first game back and improves in the second before finally leveling out. Hopefully, for Bills fans, Allen's symptoms decrease, and he can get out there and put on the performance they need to win.

Notes: Allen was seen in a walking boot following Sunday's game against Tampa Bay. He was originally diagnosed with a turf toe, but after further testing, the team said he also has a mild foot sprain. He is considered day-to-day. Foot injuries can affect a player's mindset and how he decides to approach the game. It could even affect the overall offensive game plan if Allen's mobility is down. I imagine that with the Bills in the thick of the playoff hunt and having lost three of their past four games, Allen will be out there regardless of the pain if he thinks he can be productive. 

Terry McLaurin, WR, WFT

Injury: Concussion

Impact: Affects processing, memory, play ability

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: The data predicts that once McLaurin clears protocol, we will see a 5-10% drop in snap percentage, but productivity on the field is usually about the same. 

Notes: McLaurin was ruled out of this past Sunday's game after suffering the injury the previous week. He will have to clear the NFL’s protocol to return. Washington has a big game against division-rival Philadelphia, and both teams are 6-7. WFT would love to have McLaurin back, but his safety is paramount to his return.

Trey Hendrickson, DE, Bengals

Injury: Back

Impact: Affects core, mobility, pass rush, tackling

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-3 games

Production upon return: Less severe back injuries usually keep guys out 0-1 games, and when they do return, they are at a level that was essentially the same as preinjury. I wouldn’t expect Hendrickson to be down much when he gets back on the field. At most, we might see a 5% decrease in snap percentage.

Notes: Hendrickson going down against San Francisco was a huge hit to the Bengals' defense. Luckily, it sounds like he is doing OK and has a chance to play this week. Back injuries are difficult, as the pain can be constant and debilitate an athlete if he can’t move well. If the symptoms settle down, we should see Hendrickson play this week, based on reports. However, it is something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season — and even in the offseason — if the severity is bad enough.

Alex Anzalone, LB, Lions

Injury: Ankle

Impact: Affects mobility, quickness

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-2 games

Production upon return: Expect Anzalone to be down about 10% when he returns. If the injury is less severe, the reduction could be lower with some good bracing/taping.

Notes: Lions coach Dan Campbell said Anzalone is day-to-day. The Lions have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, and they will want to keep their starting middle linebacker safe and healthy. But if it’s just an ankle sprain and he can play, expect Anzalone to do everything he can to get out on that field. He is a guy who will do anything to be out there with his teammates.

Logan Thomas, TE, WFT

Injury: ACL tear

Impact: Affects stability, strength, trust in knee

Surgery: Yes

Potential time missed: Remainder of season

Production upon return: Thomas will need time to regain mobility, strength and proprioception and learn to trust the knee when cutting. As long as he does that, he will be ready to go next season. Every so often, another surgery is needed for scar cleanup and cleanout of the knee. We will have to watch how he progresses this offseason.

Notes: Additional tests have shown an ACL tear in Thomas’ knee after all. This is tough for Washington as it continues to fight for a playoff berth. We knew Thomas was injured and going to miss some games, but this puts an end to his season. He will have to have surgery and then work his way back for the start of the 2022 season. 

Renowned orthopedist Dr. Matt Provencher and his company, Proven Performance Technology (PPT), deliver data-driven injury insights to football fans. In this first-of-a-kind role as Athlete Injury and Performance Analyst for FOX Sports’ digital platforms, Provencher provides important predictive player health and recovery information about post-injury performance, the impact of weather, field conditions and more.