NFL Week 1 Survivor pool picks and analysis

Well, that was an exciting way to start the NFL season. I’m referring specifically to Denver’s rarely successful and typically irritating “ice the kicker” timeout.

Turns out 50 yards is no chip shot even at Mile High, as Carolina Panthers kicker Graham Gano hooked left what would have been the winning field goal. And so the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos begin their title defense with a 21-20 victory.

Now, as we’ll do each Friday, let’s take a look at the best and most popular Week 1 NFL survivor pool selections and try to chart a course through the shark-ridden waters to the promise land. As always, the first couple weeks are among the most treacherous as there’s little information to evaluate how reshaped teams have coalesced and will perform on the field.

It’s best in Week 1 to pick an established team with a strong track record, preferably a home team. In other words, don’t do anything stupid. Of course, the NFL is always difficult to predict. Perhaps you recall last year’s Week 2 survivor pool mass extinction, when each of the most popular six selections flopped, leaving behind a wasteland of confusion, despair and survivor’s guilt.

Well, probably not guilt. Let’s cut to Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins

Seahawks is the top selection on the board in a game with the most crooked line on the board with Seattle favored by 10.5. In FOX Survivor pools, one quarter of participants are on Seattle while in Yahoo! pools the rate is even higher at 39 percent.

For starters, despite their offensive line woes, Seattle is a very good, well-coached football team with a quarterback who makes plays out of nothing and a defense capable of bringing pressure with four men. Maybe new head coach Adam Gase can whisper Ryan Tannehill into the upper layer of quarterbacks, but last season Tannehill was among the league’s worst with or without pressure in his face. Also, Seattle’s CenturyLink Field is a noisy place, which won’t make Tannehill’s life any easier.

Meanwhile Seattle discovered in the second half of last season that Russell Wilson and the passing game can carry the offense, that Angry Doug Baldwin is also Really Good Doug Baldwin and that Pro Bowl special teamer Tyler Lockett is a dangerous receiving threat as well.

When Miami is on defense, they won’t have top pass rusher Olivier Vernon, who is now bathing in cash in New York, but they will have former Seahawks defensive back Byron “cash flow, all day”  Maxwell, who got shipped to Miami after Philly determined he was not the answer to their leaky secondary at his large price point.

Miami’s defense looks to be worse on paper than last season, not better, and gives no compelling reason why they might be able to fly cross-country to join only a handful of teams that have beaten the Seahawks at home in the past few seasons.

Seattle is the safest, smartest, least-stupid Week 1 pick you can make. If you’re in an enormous pool that you simply cannot win without taking a risk, look elsewhere I suppose, but if you’re in a mid-size (50 or fewer) pool, you’re asking for trouble to go elsewhere.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers

Remember when the Chiefs started 1-5 last season and then won 10 in a row, played catch with Texans QB Brian Hoyer in a Wild Card blowout and then nearly defeated the Patriots in the Divisional Round when Andy Reid once again showed an ineptitude for managing the game clock? Of course you do. Put another way, the Chiefs are good and may be more vigilant about avoiding a disastrous start.

A few reasons why Kansas City is a strong pick despite facing a divisional opponent, which is usually best to avoid in survivor pools when possible: Philip Rivers has really struggled against the Chiefs, particularly at Kansas City -- where he’s thrown just 15 passing touchdowns in 10 career games, per Per Rotoworld.com’s Rick Hribar. And the Kansas City pass defense, ranked 5th in DVOA last season, is still very solid despite losing cornerback Sean Smith to the Raiders. It would be real nice if Justin Houston were playing and Tamba Hali was at full strength (he’ll be on a snap count) but at least Eric Berry is back at safety after a holdout.

On offense, the Chiefs can afford to ease Jamaal Charles back thanks to his backfield mates. The 24-year-old Ware and Charcandrick West will get a chance (or 35) to run at one of the league’s worst rushing defenses (Chargers ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA in 2015) that won’t get to plug in their top draft selection, defensive end Joey Bosa, due to his “tightness” caused in part by the Chargers’ “idiotic” contractual dispute with the rookie. So what if Chiefs QB Alex Smith is a check-down machine, that's nice for survivor play from a disaster-aversion position. San Diego may keep it close but the Chiefs should grind this one out. Eight percent of FOX Survivor poolsters like Kansas City to take them to Week 2.

Houston Texas vs. Chicago Bears

I’m already on record saying that the Bears are among the five NFL teams with no chance to make the playoffs this season. Just wanted to put that out there. The addition of former Packers Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton made me a little less enthusiastic about that declaration, but I still think they’re in for a long season.

The Texans are lucky that they’ll have J.J. Watt for this game. Even if he’s only at 60 percent strength as he mends from offseason back surgery and groin surgeries, that’s better than most of the league’s defensive ends. Former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney looks poised to wreak havoc the way scouts had projected, and behind him Houston has one of the league’s best secondaries -- a group that really came on during the 2015 second half. Per Hribar, Houston didn’t allow any QB to break 250 passing yards over their final nine games. Personally, I pushed all-in on Alshon Jeffery in fantasy football this season but don't think this will be the week where I'll be patting myself on the back for it.

Houston brought in running back Lamar Miller this season and will use him to try to gash the Bears’ shaky rushing defense. The Texans might even get some competent quarterback play this season. At least they paid Brock Osweiler enough for that. I expect Houston to win this game and 10 percent of FOX and Yahoo! poolsters are on board, too.

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is actually the second most popular selection in FOX Survivor pools but it appears lower here because, well, I don’t think it should be so popular. Do I think the Packers will win? Yes. Am I willing to bet on it? I’ll bet on nearly anything. Am I going to bet on the Packers in survivor pools? No, I don’t think so, because it’s foolish to take any road team at this stage in the game when there are better options on the board.

The Jaguars are kind of a sexy/sleeper pick this season with their upgrades on defense in the draft and free agency. The Packers are also a popular Super Bowl pick despite how dreadfully out-of-sync they looked on offense at times last season. Jordy Nelson’s return will remedy some (maybe much) of that and maybe too the addition of tight end Jared Cook, but not a ton else has changed for the offense besides Eddie Lacy’s fitness and Josh Sitton’s surprising departure.

The Jaguars have an exploitable secondary and Blake Bortles may give the Packers’ defense more opportunities than it needs but again, the Jaguars offense has playmakers (Hey, Allen Bros!), tight end Julius Thomas is ready to go and the offensive line should be improved with Luke Joeckel moved inside to guard and former Steelers tackle Kelvin Beachum at his side.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns

You guys like to live dangerously, don’t you? Yes, the Browns will be lucky to win four games this season (perhaps one, according to former NFL head coach Brian Billick) but Carson Wentz is a rookie making his first career start after missing valuable reps during the preseason with cracked ribs.

I don’t think the Eagles will ask Wentz to do too much outside of handing the ball off 30-40 times, but the Browns are not going to roll over. Also I vaguely remember having a dream last night about Gary Barnidge catching a touchdown in the front right corner of the end zone, which is absurd to write but if it happens I want a record of it in case I decide to experiment with some lucid NFL dreaming. I would avoid taking the Eagles here.

Those are the top five most popular picks this week. Pick your poison and check back here tomorrow for the best prop bets for Week 1, and hit me up on Twitter @brettsmiley with any questions, comments or frustrations.