NFL QB Trust Index: Which passers will be reliable in playoffs?

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

By now, you know what to expect out of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

Those guys have won Super Bowls and MVP awards. And come playoff time, they're as reliable as they come.

But with one week left in the 2021 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is shaping up, and we are guaranteed to get a green set of QBs this postseason. 

How much confidence should you have in these quarterbacks who haven't spent much time in the playoff spotlight? Let's go to the Trust Index.

Joe Burrow: Trust level — 5 out of 5

I'm not sure there’s a quarterback who has more trust from his teammates and his fan base heading into the playoffs than Burrow. The Bengals' QB has thrown for more than 900 yards the past two weeks in home wins over the Ravens and Chiefs, helping Cincinnati clinch the AFC North. 

The second-year pro has the type of swagger and confidence that playoff-winning quarterbacks often possess. His top target, Ja’Marr Chase, is going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and appears unstoppable at times. Chase added 25 expected points on his 11 receptions for 266 yards on Sunday. 

However, the Chiefs' game plan at Cincinnati was poor. The Bengals' offense has struggled to move the ball against two high coverages this season, and K.C. decided against using that defense. Still, the Bengals will host a playoff game, and Cincy fans should have a ton of confidence in Burrow to help win it.

Justin Herbert: Trust level — 5

Duh. What else does Herbert need to show to make you feel more or less confident in him? He set the Chargers' record for passing touchdowns in a season with his 35th in L.A.'s 34-13 win over the Broncos on Sunday.

Whenever the moment is big, Herbert steps up. The Chargers still have work to do to secure an AFC wild-card spot in Week 18. But, speaking as a Chiefs fan, Herbert is the last quarterback I want K.C. to see in the playoffs.

Kyler Murray: Trust level — 3.5

I have been harsh on the Cardinals and Murray, as they are in the midst of their usual second-half slide. However, Arizona righted the ship at Dallas with a 25-22 victory that kept the Cards alive for the NFC West title. 

Murray is always dangerous because when he’s on, he can be difficult to stop. The third-year QB has improved at making the difficult throws he struggled to complete in his first two seasons. After his ankle injury five weeks ago, Murray's accuracy declined, but it appeared to be back against Dallas. 

If the Cardinals get DeAndre Hopkins back for the playoffs, Murray should be able to move the ball with his arm. What makes Murray even more dangerous is his legs, which he has declined to use as much this season. But in the playoffs, anything goes, and Murray's mobility is a weapon he cannot ignore.

Dak Prescott: Trust level — 3

I don’t know why I have a soft spot in my heart for Prescott, but I still firmly believe in him, even after a lackluster second half of the season. 

Prescott started fast this season but then injured his calf with the Cowboys at 5-1 after an OT win at New England. After returning from the injury, Prescott has been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Still, we’ve seen at times that when all the Cowboys' weapons are healthy — which has been rare down the stretch — their offense is hard to stop. Prescott has periods of games when he looks back to normal, but it hasn’t been often enough for me. 

Maybe with the Cowboys officially out of the race for the No. 1 seed after the Packers' win Sunday night, Dallas can rest the sixth-year QB in Week 18 to get him back healthier in the wild-card round. A healthy Dak would allow him to use his legs more often, and that can be vital to the success of his offense.

Carson Wentz: Trust level — 2

Big yikes for the Colts, who had all their momentum derailed with a 23-20 home loss to the Raiders on Sunday. It’s fair to wonder if Wentz (16-for-27 for 148 yards and one TD) struggled because he was returning to the lineup after being out due to COVID-19 protocols, and we’ve seen many players struggle in their first week back. 

However, Wentz isn’t a consistent QB — even though it feels like there’s a campaign to get him an All-Pro vote this season. The six-year veteran is just OK at best. 

Even Colts beat writers admitted after Wentz's game-winning throw last weekend in Arizona that it was the first time all season that he’d been the difference for Indy. 

Well, that doesn’t cut it in the playoffs. The Colts' offense moves the ball almost in spite of him at times. Also, this would be Wentz’s second career playoff start, and that lack of experience in these big games could hurt on the road in the wild-card round.

Matthew Stafford: Trust level — 1.5

If you remove the name from the back of the jersey, it’s hard to watch the Rams and see that they have a different quarterback playing than they had the past four seasons.

Stafford threw another pick-six Sunday, but he also led the Rams to a critical comeback victory at Baltimore. Yes, Stafford played better in the second half — but guess what? His past month is good enough to beat teams such as the Vikings and Ravens, but not the type of squads the Rams will play in the playoffs. 

Stafford’s "expected points added" continue to drop each week, just like Jared Goff’s did in each of his seasons with the Rams. Stafford has played in just one playoff game in his career, and with the potential pressure of hosting two playoff games, I could see him combust under pressure this postseason.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.