NFL Playoffs 2017, Raiders vs. Texans: Preview and Prediction
The Oakland Raiders face the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round of the 2017 NFL Playoffs. Preview, prediction and more from this matchup.
The Wild Card Round of the 2017 NFL Playoffs kicks off on Saturday with a matchup that we might not have expected at the beginning of the season. It’s actually a matchup that, given the players who will be in the fold, you might not have expected at the end of the season. That’s what’s in store as the Oakland Raiders travel to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans.
Despite a solid season, the Raiders limp their way into Wild Card weekend to face the Texans. After Derek Carr broke his leg, Matt McGloin suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, meaning rookie Connor Cook becomes the first rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first NFL start in the playoffs.
Do not count them out, though, as they still have Khalil Mack on defense and Amari Cooper at Cook’s disposal. Oakland ended their 14-year playoff drought with an exciting team. Even short-handed, they have to be considered a threat.
Houston also has its concerns at quarterback heading into this game. Brock Osweiler was benched in favor of Tom Savage, but with Savage still dealing with a concussion, the team turns back to Osweiler. Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports, among other places, reported the decision of Bill O’Brien on Tuesday. Running back Lamar Miller is expected to play, fresh off of completing the second 1,000-ard rushing season of his career. Any team with DeAndre Hopkins is a dangerous one as well.
Let’s take a look at how each team got here, what they need to do on Saturday, and what might happen in this Wild Card matchup in the 2017 NFL Playoffs.
Dec 24, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio reacts in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts during a NFL football game at Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
How Oakland Got Here
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Oakland posted their best season since they went to the Super Bowl in 2002, going 12-4 this season. They boasted a high-powered offense led by the combination of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. The Raiders ranked sixth in the NFL with 373.3 yards per game and seventh in scoring, averaging 26 points per game. Cooper set career highs in receptions (83) and receiving yards (1,153). Latavius Murray rushed for 12 touchdowns and Carr threw for 28, giving Oakland quite the triplets.
On defense, Khalil Mack posted another strong season with 11 sacks to lead the team, and Bruce Irvin added seven. It’s a defense that gives up a lot of yards, but it makes big plays. Al Davis is somewhere smiling looking down as his team portrays his motto: “Just Win Baby!”
Despite the strong record, it’s going to be tough for Oakland going into this game with a rookie quarterback. Connor Cook didn’t play badly in his outing against Denver, going 14-for-21 for 150 yards and his first touchdown. But it’s just a lot to ask for a rookie to make his first start in a playoff game as the silver and black make their return to the playoffs after 14 years out. Losing to Denver last week, combined with the Chiefs win, brought them into the Wild Card game.
How Houston Got Here
Bill O’Brien’s bunch finished with a 9-7 record, earning them the AFC South crown over Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Houston relied on their defense in 2016, with the No. 1 ranked unit in the league. 301.3 yards per game left the Texans some distance at the top of the chart. Despite losing the great J.J. Watt for the season early, the defense was stout, allowing just 20.5 points per game.
Houston took a gamble by betting on Brock Osweiler, despite only having seven starts under his belt prior to 2016. They gave him the big money, and he was not great, completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes and throwing for 15 touchdowns while also tossing 16 interceptions. Despite his benching to Tom Savage, however, he did win eight games as a starter and did put his team in position to win the division. He re-takes the stage on Saturday with Savage still dealing with a concussion.
DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 78 receptions for 954 yards. Moreover, the Texan’s other big offseason addition in running back Lamar Miller proved to be big for them on offense. With Osweiler’s struggles, the running game often became their best consistent catalyst on that side of the ball.
Jan 1, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Dekoda Watson (57) strip the ball from Oakland Raiders quarterback Connor Cook (8) in the fourth quarter at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 24-6. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Keys to Victory
For Oakland, Cook must not let the game become too big for him. He’s a rookie, and the bright lights of the playoffs could prove intimidating. Heck, it wouldn’t be surprising if it happened, but he has to rise above it. Part of that will come from a game plan that will play to his strengths. But the Texans are likely to make the Raiders beat them with Cook. He has to stay in control and not let it get to him.
On defense, make Osweiler win this game. Lamar Miller has rushed for a solid five yards per carry in three previous meetings with the Raiders. Osweiler has not proven that he can beat anybody with his arm in 2016. He has not been worth the money that Houston gave to him, so make him win this game for the home team.
Odds are he won’t be able to do it.
When possessing the ball, the Raiders must attack and avoid remaining conservative. Even with Cook under center, Cooper is still on the outside. Murray will still be standing behind him. Michael Crabtree just put up his first 1,000 yard season as a Raider. The offense has weapons. Use them.
Dec 18, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) limps off the field after a play during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Keys to Victory
For Houston, this game must be about Lamar Miller. Oakland’s defense, despite sporting Khalil Mack in the front seven, has been suspect. They were ranked 23rd in the league against the run during the regular season. As mentioned on the previous page, Miller has had success against the Raiders. 77.7 yards per game and five yards per carry are solid numbers. Oakland has an explosive offense. Houston must control the clock, and that means Miller for the win.
The defense must come after Connor Cook. He’s a rookie starting his first game, and it’s a playoff game. His comfort with the playbook is not going to be the same as Carr or even McGloin. This will be the first week he received first-team reps. The game plan will be set to his strengths, but he won’t have seen many exotic blitzes. The quickest way to get inside the head of a young quarterback is pressure. Get in his face.
Get the ball to the outside. Oakland was ranked 24th in the league against the pass. To win it, DeAndre Hopkins is going to need to have a huge day. More importantly, though, Osweiler is going to have to get him the ball in space—and not space on the sidelines five yards down the field. Moreover, he can’t turn the ball over.
Dec 24, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) is unable to make a reception during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction
This one actually is difficult to handicap. Prior to the injuries at quarterback, Oakland would have been the easy choice here. That offense is far and away better than that of Houston. A rookie quarterback brings the team back to the pack. Will Cook be able to perform on the national stage with a playoff game on the line?
On Houston’s side, it’s difficult to believe in that offensive group. The defense is phenomenal, but will the offense score enough points? Osweiler has not turned any heads during the regular season. He was paid a lot of money and found himself on the bench. Will he be accurate enough to lead his team to victory? Can they control the tempo and keep the Oakland offense off of the field?
These are all questions that are difficult to answer in this one.
This one will be closer than it should have been. It will be surprising if this one is not in doubt when the fourth quarter comes along. However, this will just be too much to ask of a rookie quarterback, and in the end, Houston holds serve at home.
Pick: Oakland Raiders: 17, Houston Texans: 21