2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Seahawks, Bucs, Dolphins showing signs of life

A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Commanders, the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons and the Houston Texans all looked like they were in great position to cruise to the playoffs.

It's amazing how much, and how quickly, things changed.

Suddenly, all four of those teams are in a fight to the finish as teams like the Miami Dolphins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Seattle Seahawks have come to life. And as more and more intra-division battles take place in December and January, some of these races might come down to the very end.

The wildest race is in the NFC West, where all four teams are still alive. But that's not the only place where things could get wild.

Here is the NFL playoff picture through Week 12:

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

Even a team as good and as battle-hardened as the Chiefs can sometimes fall victim to a trap game. They should have had no trouble with the Carolina Panthers and when they were up 27-16 heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday, it looked like they were home free. But they let that 3-8 team off the mat and needed a last-second field goal to head home with a victory. All's well that ends well, as long as they wake up in time to play the struggling Raiders at home next week.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

The BIlls sure were rooting for the Panthers to pull off that upset over the Chiefs while they were sitting home on their bye week. They'll need every advantage they can get as they head into a three-game stretch against the 49ers, Rams and Lions. They're still going to cruise to the AFC East title and the playoffs, but especially after beating the Chiefs at home last week, they really want to make sure the next time they play them it's in Orchard Park, N.Y. again.

Playoff probability: 99%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

They did not do themselves any favors with their snow-drenched loss in Cleveland on Thursday night. Their lead in the AFC North is now just a half-game after the Ravens beat the Chargers on Monday night. Everyone’s eyes are on the Steelers’ Dec. 21 showdown in Baltimore, but Pittsburgh can’t afford another letdown between now and then. They’re at Cincinnati then home to Cleveland the next two weeks before a game in Philadelphia. They might need to get through that stretch 2-1 to really make the rematch with the Ravens matter.

Playoff probability: 93%

4. Houston Texans (7-5)

It's a good thing the AFC South is bad because the Texans aren't looking so hot right now. Their defense was shredded by Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, while they couldn't run on the Titans' defense and C.J. Stroud threw two interceptions. They've now lost three of their last four games and four of six. They still lead their division by two, but they're keeping hope alive in Indianapolis every time they lose.

Playoff probability: 94%

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

One week after a tough loss in Pittsburgh, the Ravens got right back on their roll by winning the Harbaugh Bowl on Monday night in convincing fashion over the Chargers. They’ve now gone 8-2 since their surprising 0-2 start and they’ve scored at least 30 points in seven of their last nine games. Doing it against the Chargers, who boast a top-10 defense, wasn’t easy, either. They’ve got another tough test against the Eagles at home on Sunday. Then they get a much-needed bye week to rest up before their Dec. 21 showdown against the Steelers.

Playoff probability: 99%

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

It’s a little bit alarming that the Chargers could not get their offense going against a Ravens team that has been struggling on defense. But it still did take one of the AFC’s best teams to stop L.A.’s four-game winning streak. They’re still in good wild card position, but the road ahead is difficult. They go to Atlanta and Baltimore before coming home for the Bucs and Broncos. That’s a tough, four-game stretch that will show whether they’re serious contenders or the same old Chargers.

Playoff probability: 86%

7. Denver Broncos (7-5)

Another terrific outing by rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the surprising Broncos keep clinging to that last playoff spot. They've now won two straight and are 7-3 since they started the season 0-2. They'll look to continue their roll against the Browns on Sunday before they get their bye week. They need that game because their last three games of the season aren't easy, and the Dolphins are suddenly not that far behind them.

Playoff probability: 73%

On the outside looking in: Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (5-6) have won three straight and their offense has kicked into gear.  With a soft remaining schedule, they're a sleeper for the seventh spot. … The Indianapolis Colts (5-7) are still being propped up by the struggling Texans, but after losing to the Detroit Lions they've now lost four of their last five. Maybe they can stop the bleeding in New England next Sunday. … Can the Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) come off their bye week and win their last six games? That might be their only hope.

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (10-1)

After a no-sweat win in Indianapolis on Sunday, they come home for three weeks against the Bears, Packers and Bills. Maybe the Bears and Packers won't be pushovers, but that Bills game is shaping up as perhaps their last remaining test of the season. They certainly weren't tested the last two weeks in beating the Jaguars and Colts by a combined score of 76-12. They really might be as good as they look, too.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)

The most impressive thing about the Eagles isn’t just that they’ve now won seven straight games, it’s how they’ve done it. Their defense has been dominant. They gave up 123 yards to the Rams on the first two drives Sunday night, then mostly shut them down the rest of the way. And Saquon Barkley is rolling, adding another 255 rushing yards and 47 receiving yards to his MVP-like totals. Their game in Baltimore next Sunday is a clash of the titans, but after that they get four of their last five games at home.

Playoff probability: 99%

3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)

They took over first place in the wildest division in the NFL by vanquishing two straight division foes. First, Geno Smith engineered a late comeback against the 49ers last weekend, and then on Sunday they continued their momentum by stifling the Arizona Cardinals. They've got a difficult road ahead and not much room for error, so Smith really needs a win in New York against his old Jets team next Sunday to keep their momentum going.

Playoff probability: 44%

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)

They probably knew they'd lose ground on their bye week with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing the woeful New York Giants, and now their AFC South lead is down to just one game. That's a problem because not only did the Bucs get receiver Mike Evans back to make their offense near-whole again, but the Falcons come out of the bye with games against the Chargers and Vikings. Things get easier after that, but they need to get their momentum back after two straight losses, and that won't be easy.

Playoff probability: 70%

5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

They keep winning even though they sure don't look good doing it. They were cruising over the Bears on Sunday, leading 24-10 heading into the third quarter. But they blew the whole lead and needed an overtime field goal to win. The good news is their offense went crazy with 452 yards, including 330 passing yards and two touchdowns from Sam Darnold. But oh, that late-game defense. They'll need to do better to hang on against the Cards and Falcons the next two weeks, even at home.

Playoff probability: 98%

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

They looked dominant against a strong 49ers defense on Sunday, though it surely helped that San Francisco was without starting quarterback Brock Purdy. Whatever, it was still a second straight win out of the bye and six wins in seven games overall. The Dolphins on Thanksgiving night won't be a pushover and then they head to Detroit, so things will get tougher for them. But they've given themselves a nice cushion.

Playoff probability: 90%

7. Washington Commanders (7-5)           

They looked absolutely terrible for three quarters against the Dallas Cowboys, then positively magical in the fourth quarter, right up until they blew the game in the end. Maybe the game woke up Jayden Daniels and their offense, at least. They better hope so because they've suddenly lost three straight games and they might be without running backs Brian Robinson (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) with a tough Titans team standing between them and the bye and a few hot NFC teams sitting right on their heels.

Playoff probability: 59%

On the outside looking in: 

The Arizona Cardinals (6-5) couldn't have stumbled out of their bye week in a worse way, no-showing on offense against the Seahawks. They'll see them again in Arizona in two weeks, but they have to survive a game in Minnesota first. … The Los Angeles Rams (5-6) are still 4-2 since their bye week and are only one game out of first place in the NFC West after losing to the Eagles. But they need all the help they can get in a packed division and facing a very tough schedule the rest of the way. … The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) looked like their old selves, crushing the hapless New York Giants and snapping a four-game losing streak. They've given themselves a shot now if they can stay hot. … The San Francisco 49ers (5-6) looked like they might be the dangerous team in the NFC West when Christian McCaffrey returned. But then they lost QB Brock Purdy and were hammered by the Packers. Now they're in trouble with a game in Buffalo next Sunday and Purdy's status uncertain.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.