NFL playoff picks: Forecast for AFC, NFC Championship Games

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I’m rarely speechless, but I don’t quite know how to recap what we witnessed this weekend. 

As I sit at my desk completely wired after the Chiefs' thrilling, 42-36 overtime victory against the Bills to cap off the most incredible divisional round I can remember, the only words that need to be said are "thank you."

Thank you to the league, its players and its coaches for giving us this fantastic football. 

How did we get to championship weekend, and which teams do I expect to reach Super Bowl LVI in Inglewood, California? Let me try my best to get into it.

No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs 
When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Line: Chiefs by 7, over/under 53.5

The Chiefs will win if … they just sit in zone. Oh, and if they give more effort on defense.

Kansas City just won the most thrilling divisional-round game in history. There were 25 points scored in the last two minutes of regulation. It was a display of offense (and poor defense) we rarely see in the NFL. 

Now, Kansas City moves on to play the Bengals. The Chiefs and Bengals just met in Week 17, when Cincinnati rallied for a 34-31 victory. Kansas City was up 28-14 late in the first half and managed only three second-half points. This game was a comedy of errors for the Chiefs, who blew coverages, didn’t tackle and called some ridiculous defensive schemes. It summed up the worst parts of their season. Just self-inflicted wounds. 

The same thing almost cost them Sunday against the Bills: a truly mind-blowing tight-end option called on third-and-1; Harrison Butker missing a field goal and an extra point; the Chiefs' defense routinely blowing coverages. 

This is when the Chiefs are at their worst, but they have Patrick Mahomes, who makes it all right. 

I wrote about rematches recently, focusing on why they do not matter after four weeks. However, this game is within that time frame where it absolutely favors the Chiefs. K.C.'s defensive effort was poor at times against the Bengals. The Chiefs blitzed way too much, considering that Chris Jones could not be blocked. The third-and-27 zero pressure is still an unfathomable call. The Chiefs could not stop Ja'Marr Chase when he was singled up. 

All of these issues can be corrected with better playcalls. Just sit in zone. Give more effort. Now, Kansas City's performance against Buffalo has me worried because the Chiefs allowed way too many easy yards via blown coverages. Kansas City can adapt, and the Bengals don’t have much reason to do things differently. 

The Chiefs' offense stalled out in the second half against Cincinnati — but only on three possessions. The past two weekends that hasn’t been a concern, with 40-plus points in two straight games against two good defenses. 

Playoff Pat Mahomes has been fantastic, and he will continue to be this weekend. 

The Bengals will win if … Joe Burrow can follow Josh Allen's blueprint.

Against the Titans, the Bengals allowed nine sacks and countless other pressures, couldn’t run the ball, stalled out in the high red zone a bunch and scored only 19 points … and they won a road playoff game. That is not normal, but the Bengals deserve credit for battling through some offensive woes by forcing turnovers and shutting down the Titans' rushing attack. 

Now, the Bengals head to Kansas City as unlikely AFC Championship Game participants. 

The Bengals have their own quarterback who makes everything right in Burrow, who continues to make plays behind an abysmal offensive line. Chase is one of the best playmakers in the game, and the Bengals have other weapons who are tough to defend. 

However, that offensive line does limit Cincinnati. The Bengals have struggled in the high and low red zone because of their line. That’s a part of the field where being able to run the ball and pass protect is even more important. The field shrinks as it gets closer to the end zone, so the throwing lanes and rushing alleys are constricted. 

On the other side of the ball, Bengals fans swear their defense is good, but the numbers would suggest otherwise. Cincinnati entered this weekend 25th in defensive DVOA. The Bengals survived against the Titans due to truly awful play by QB Ryan Tannehill and a couple of bounces that went their way. 

Burrow is the dude in these must-win games. It’s that simple. Burrow must be Josh Allen. He must do everything in his power to win this game. I do not think the Bengals' defense will stop the Chiefs much. So it’s up to Burrow to get the ball out quickly, find the mismatches and, if the Chiefs make mistakes, make them pay. 

The pick: I know I picked the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by multiple scores in Week 17. I was wrong. But I’m back to the well with this one. The Chiefs are far better, they're more talented, and with Mahomes, they’ve lost only two of 10 playoff games.

Those games were both to Tom Brady. The Bengals do not have Tom Brady. The Bengals' offense can be bottled up with a fierce pass rush and zone coverage. The Chiefs would be stupid to do anything but that.

I think the over is certainly in play here, but I’m taking the Chiefs to win and cover.

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams
When: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and the FOX Sports App
Line: Rams by 3.5, over/under 46

The 49ers will win if … they stick to the plan and bully the Rams.

The Niners beat the Packers on Saturday with six offensive points, one blocked punt for a touchdown and a blocked field goal. After allowing an opening-drive touchdown to the Packers, they allowed only three more points the rest of the game. The Niners once again relied on a dominant pass rush, a speedy linebacker core and just enough plays for a secondary that needs to be challenged more.

On offense, they struggled all game, but in the most clutch moment of the game, Jimmy Garoppolo got them into field-goal range. He seems to rise to the occasion in the two-minute drill.

Kyle Shanahan has beaten Sean McVay six times in a row. The Niners are more physical than the Rams at the line of scrimmage in all the matchups. It’s that simple. 

In their game on the final Sunday of the regular season, the Niners got down 17-0 and clawed back in the second half using force — running the ball and rushing the passer. 

That is exactly what they must do again. They have to force Matthew Stafford into turnovers, which is common for the Rams when playing the Niners. They must avoid Jimmy G having to play a big role in this game. It’s tough to win that way, but it’s clearly working for now.

The Rams will win if … Matt Stafford continues to play like the quarterback people wanted him to be. 

The past two weeks, he has been that guy, guiding the offense with poise and no turnovers. If Stafford can do that, the Rams will win because they are the more talented team in this game. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Jalen Ramsey on defense. Andrew Whitworth (I assume he’s playing), Odell Beckham Jr., Cooper Kupp and Cam Akers on offense. The Rams can do this if Stafford doesn’t screw it up.

The Rams opened a 27-3 lead on the Bucs, only to need a Matt Gay game-winning field goal to win 30-27 as time expired. The Rams tried their absolute best to "Falcon" this game, with four turnovers! They were minus-two in turnover margin and won a road playoff game. That's almost unheard of. 

That said, Stafford was great, taking advantage of multiple blown coverages to hit some deep shots. He has gone back-to-back playoff games without an interception. 

Against the Bucs, the Rams' trench play was the story. Both the offensive and defensive lines dominated their opponent. Tampa Bay was expected to struggle at right tackle with Tristan Wirfs out, but Miller, Floyd and Donald all took turns winning over the left tackle. 

Once the Bucs got rolling, the Rams were back on their heels and had no answers — but they played well enough for three quarters to win.

The pick: I can’t pick both home teams to win and cover, so I’ll take the Niners here to cover the 3.5, but I think the Rams win outright. The hook is important in this NFC West rivalry game, and I’ll be happy to use it to my advantage. These teams know each other so well, and it’s up to the Rams to not beat themselves down the stretch. 

It’ll be a close game. Rams win. Niners cover. 

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.