NFL odds: Why Eagles vs. Cowboys will be a high-scoring track meet
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Another week of betting on football is coming to a close, but the most exciting game of the weekend is still in front of us.
As we wrap up Week 3 in the NFL and Week 4 in college football, here's my last best bet for the week, with lines courtesy of FOX Bet.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Over 51.5 at FOX Bet
Everybody that watched the Boys and Birds play in Week 1 practically ran to the betting window to bet their respective "Overs" in Week 2. So naturally, Dallas and Los Angeles scored 37 points while Philadelphia and San Francisco combined for 28.
Them's the breaks in gambling sometimes.
There were 827 yards of offense in the Chargers-Cowboys game, but some costly interceptions by Justin Herbert – including one in the end zone – kept points off the board. I am convinced that the final score was an anomaly.
We saw the Eagles-49ers matchup play out similarly. Philadelphia had a first-quarter touchdown called back because receiver Jalen Reagor stepped out of bounds before making the catch. If that wasn't enough, Jake Elliott proceeded to kick his field goal attempt into a wall of San Francisco special teamers. The game turned into a slow crawl from there.
I expect Dallas or Philadelphia to set the pace very early with a touchdown to open things up. Both teams have too much speed and play with too much pace to play anything other than the "Over."
The Eagles also lost star pass rusher, Brandon Graham, for the season with an Achilles injury.
Buckle up!
PICK: OVER 51.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet
Six-point teaser: Browns to -1.5 vs. Chicago Bears; Saints to +8.5 vs. New England Patriots (-125 at FOX Bet)
If you're not familiar, a two-team teaser allows you to move a side or total six points, but you must win both legs to cash. I don't particularly love laying -125 on a teaser, but I'll do it in this situation, given the circumstances.
Let's tease Cleveland down through the 7 and 3 and New Orleans up through the 3 and 7 to maximize our edge. Thank you, Stanford Wong.
Chicago is a horrendously coached football team that feasted on an even more terrible Cincinnati offensive line. And the game was still too close for comfort because Matt Nagy gonna Matt Nagy.
Word is, Andy Dalton will start at quarterback if he's healthy, and that should tell you everything you need to know about the Bears.
Meanwhile, New Orleans looked terrific in the opener and abysmal in the second game, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Expect the Saints defense to bounce back in Foxboro against rookie quarterback Mac Jones. I love the Saints getting over a touchdown with the tease.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5 at FOX Bet)
Aaron Rodgers is almost single-handedly keeping this line where it is.
San Francisco is such a superior (and healthier) team on the offensive and defensive lines, but the "Rodgers getting points" angle is hard for bettors to ignore. Green Bay is already starting two rookies to protect Rodgers, and now left tackle Elgton Jenkins is listed as doubtful.
That’s a recipe for disaster against a 49ers front that loves to bring pressure and make life uncomfortable for opposing quarterbacks. The Packers have also shown that stopping the run is still an issue, and Kyle Shanahan is smart enough to ground and pound ‘til the cows come home. Plus, it sounds like running back Trey Sermon has cleared concussion protocol and will start.
Green Bay will eventually get their lines where they need to be, but this is a horrendous spot off an already short week after playing on Monday night. If San Francisco protects that precious football, they’ll take care of business.
Pick: 49ers (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points
LEANS
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: Under 43 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Bill Belichick has a great defense and a rookie quarterback, and he certainly has more trust in the former when it comes to game scripting.
Belichick has made a Hall of Fame career out of tormenting erratic quarterbacks, and that song should remain the same against Saints signal-caller Jameis Winston.
The Patriots have been relatively conservative on offense – especially in the red zone – which keeps the ball on the ground and time melting off the clock. Expect New England to lean heavily on the run and short passing game until Mac Jones' training wheels come off.
This total is as low as it is for a reason.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 PICKS
Rutgers (+19 at FOX Bet) at Michigan
When Jim Harbaugh runs up the score on lowly Northern Illinois 63-10, it gives us some extra wiggle room the following week. Unlike NIU, Rutgers can tackle and complete a forward pass. They've got uniforms and everything.
Seriously, though, this number should be a lot closer to Michigan -14.5. The Wolverines (3-0 ATS) are better than voters and oddsmakers thought, which, in a weird, roundabout way, gives us betting value on Rutgers (also 3-0 ATS).
Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights on the up and up with senior quarterback Noah Vedral running the show. Rutgers has more speed and skill than you think, and the Knights can score enough to keep this one interesting.
Take the points.
PICK: Rutgers (+19) to lose by fewer than 19 points (or win outright)
Colorado State at Iowa (-23 at FOX Bet)
It’s sounding more and more like star receiver Dante Wright is going to miss his second straight for Colorado State.
Nothing is official yet, but Wright didn’t play last Saturday against Toledo and he reportedly hasn’t been practicing. That’s a big deal because the Rams will need all hands on deck against one of the best defenses in the country.
In two games at Kinnick Stadium this season, the Iowa Hawkeyes have held Indiana to six points and Kent State to seven. And that’s a defensive that prides itself on finishing games strong. Colorado State won’t be able to run the rock and I forecast plenty of short fields for the Iowa offense.
Historically, this is a game that the Hawkeyes win 38-10.
PICK: Iowa (-23 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 23 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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