NFL odds Week 9: Best bets for Colts-Patriots, Dolphins-Bears
Happy November – it’s time to bet against Tennessee!
Our best bets (21-18 YTD) are in the green, and I’m rolling with five plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
No. 18 Oklahoma State at Kansas (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1 and FOX Sports App)
It sounds like quarterback Jalon Daniels will be back for KU.
We hinted at this a couple days ago, and I definitely expect Daniels to lace ‘em up after a week of practice.
This number has moved to KU -1 at multiple shops, but FOX Bet is still dealing it at a pick ‘em. Lucky you.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is just a battered bunch right now. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has clearly been playing hurt, and offensive linemen and playmakers are dropping like flies to injury. And let’s not forget that the Pokes just got throttled 48-0 last Saturday against K-State.
Take the Rock Chalkers at home.
PICK: Kansas (PK -110 at FOX Bet) to win straight up
No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)
This won’t be popular, but I’m anti-Tennessee here.
The Volunteers finally face a tough opponent away from Knoxville, and it’s crazy to think this will be their first road game in four weeks. And this goes without being said, but the Bulldogs are easily the best defense that Heisman-hopeful Hendon Hooker will face to date.
Tennessee’s offense is loaded, but Georgia is loaded on offense and defense. For all the talk about Georgia’s challenges stopping Tennessee, Tennessee gave up almost 50 points to Alabama and Georgia’s offense is better.
Athens will be rocking this Saturday and I expect Hooker to face some adversity. Georgia will throw a bunch of different coverages and looks against Hooker, and I have my doubts about him being able to carve up one of the best secondaries in the country.
Give me the Dawgs by two touchdowns.
PICK: Georgia (-8.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8.5 points
Vikings at Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
I’ve done a complete 360 on this game. Earlier in the week, I was feeling Minnesota, but now I’m way too ready to bet Washington.
The Vikings continue to escape with close wins. Minnesota has won five straight football games, all by one score. That’s almost impossible to sustain.
It’s also helped that the Vikings have beaten four losing teams over the aforementioned hot streak. I think Kirk Cousins and Co. are long overdue to have some bounces go against them and don’t look now, but Washington has been playing good ball since Taylor Heinicke re-entered the chat.
Washington’s defense continues to impress – WSH is 4-1 to the "Under" in its last five – and if the Commanders can pressure the pocket with that pass rush, Cousins’ first game back at FedEx Field will be very interesting.
PICK: Commanders (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Colts at Patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Colts’ offensive line is horrendous right now.
According to Pro Football Focus, Indianapolis ranks 28th in pass blocking and 30th in run blocking. That would explain why Jonathan Taylor is only rushing for 4.3 yards per attempt and 77 yards per game. The line isn’t getting any push, which is the real reason why the offense is struggling.
I’m not exactly excited to lay points with Mac Jones, but the Patriots will undoubtedly run the rock with success and be able to make plays down the field via play action. At the end of the day, my favorite part of this game is Bill Belichick scheming against inexperienced quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
Lay the points with New England.
On a side note, there is a chance Taylor is out, which is more the reason to get this bet in before the line moves.
PICK: Patriots (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
Dolphins at Bears (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Good luck to Chicago’s defense up front.
If the Bears aren’t getting home with a pass rush – Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith are no longer running through that door – those speedy, skillful Dolphin receivers should eat all afternoon at Soldier Field. Chicago’s D was absolutely shredded against Dallas and Miami has more weapons.
Also, Chicago’s offense has been surprisingly effective over the last couple weeks. Luke Getsy is finally starting to call more run plays for quarterback Justin Fields, which makes the entire attack more dynamic and tougher to stop. Let’s not ignore the Bears scoring 62 points in their last two contests.
Don’t be surprised when Miami puts up 30, which leaves some light lifting for Chicago to get this thing "Over" the number.
PICK: Over 45.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.