NFL odds Week 8: Why you should back the Cardinals, other best bets

It's Week 8 of the NFL season, and I finally hit the escape hatch on the New York Jets. Hopefully, you soared with me in Week 7 as they won outright, yet again, but it's time for me to lay off of them this weekend.

As for this week's slate, keep reading to find out why you shouldn't be worried about Kyler telling off Kliff and Aaron seemingly falling off a cliff.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my best bets for Week 8 (with odds via FOX Bet).

Patriots at Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Mac Jones-Bailey Zappe drama was thought to be solved when the latter put the Patriots up 14-10 in storybook fashion on Monday night. And then Zappe did nothing else the rest of the way, and New England got buried by the Bears, 33-14. 

So who is starting at QB this week against the Jets? You have to wonder about the confidence of Mac Jones after fans booed him and cheered on Zappe.

The Patriots were 1-point favorites on the look-ahead line; the spread went up to -2 after the loss. Why you may ask? Because the Patriots have beaten the Jets 12 straight times. 

Anyone who feels very confident about this game has no clue what they’re talking about. The Jets are very beat up, especially in the trenches, so they may get dominated at the line of scrimmage. 

The Patriots have only faced one defense better than the Jets - the Ravens - and Mac Jones threw three interceptions, and New England had four turnovers. While I’d love to make a case for the Jets for the fourth straight week, I'm worried about the injuries.

In this divisional matchup, I’ll get a little creative. Look for a slow start from both teams, so I'll grab the first-half Under.

PICK: 1st half Under 20 points at FOX Bet

Cardinals at Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Vikings come into this game off a bye, while the Cardinals are off the "mini-bye" after a Thursday win over the Saints. 

The Vikings are 5-1, but the advanced stats say they’re not very good. Overall, they rank 19th in efficiency, below the 2-5 Browns, 5-2 Jets and 2-4 Raiders. 

Minnesota was -6.5 on the look ahead, but after Arizona’s win and the offense's effectiveness with DeAndre Hopkins back, the line has cratered to -3.5. 

The Vikings' resume is suspect, as they needed to rally to defeat the Lions, Saints and Bears, and faced two backup quarterbacks for the Dolphins. Assuming Arizona can deal with whatever is going on between Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, the Cards should be able to move the ball easily and keep this one close. 

You’re not getting the best number, which hurts, but I still like Arizona in this spot.

PICK: Cardinals (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Steelers at Eagles (1 p.m ET Sunday, CBS)

Kenny Pickett has the weapons but no offensive line to give him time to get the ball to his playmakers. That’s trouble against the Eagles, who rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate while only ranking league-average in blitzing (17th).

Generating pressure without blitzing has enabled Philly's cornerbacks to dominate, as Darius Slay and James Bradberry have graded out as the 13th and 16th best cornerbacks in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.

The Eagles also rank No. 1 in turnover margin (+12) and are the only team that has yet to fumble this season. Are they due for some regression against a ball-hawking defense that unfortunately dropped four interceptions against Tua on Sunday night? 

The Steelers are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog of at least seven with two outright wins (Cincinnati, Tampa) in that spot. 

The Eagles make a solid teaser leg, taking them down to a field goal, but Pittsburgh should be live to cover the double-digit spread. The only good defense the Eagles have faced was the Cowboys; Philly was held to 268 yards and 3.9 ypp, and benefited from three Cooper Rush interceptions. 

Of course, Kenny Pickett has thrown seven interceptions in four appearances so far, but I'll take the points. 

PICK: Steelers (+10 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)

Giants at Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

For the second week in a row, the one-loss Giants find themselves on the road as underdogs against a team with an inferior record. Last week, the Jaguars had 27 first downs, 452 yards and seven yards per play. But a fumble at the goal line and a big failed fourth down helped the Giants steal another win. 

How many times can New York rally to victory? 

Daniel Jones, whom the Giants refused to extend in the offseason, has orchestrated a league-high five game-winning drives. He used to be turnover prone, but he only has four this season. 

However, this is a difficult travel spot for the Giants. They went from London back to New York for a physical game against the Ravens, in which they pulled off a miracle comeback. Then down to Jacksonville, where they lost two offensive linemen and rallied in the fourth quarter. The big question is, will they have enough in the tank to do it again after a cross-country trip to Seattle? 

The Seahawks will be without DK Metcalf, and we’ll see how Geno Smith handles being blitzed, as Wink Martindale has sent the second most blitzes in the NFL (100). Two weeks ago, against the Cardinals - who have blitzed the most - Smith was sacked five times and held under 200 yards passing.

Seattle feels like the side, but the Seahawks were only favored once this season and lost at home to Atlanta. Instead, I'll go with the Under, as points will be at a premium.

Pick: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Packers at Bills (8:20 p.m.ET Sunday, NBC)

The Packers have lost three straight for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era. They had a double-digit lead against NFC East teams in two of those games. In the other, the Jets pushed them around for four quarters. 

Now the Packers travel to Buffalo to face the best team in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog. 

Buffalo has one of the best defensive fronts, while the Packers line has been spotty at best this season, crippling Rodgers’ ability to find receivers who can’t get separation.

The last time the Bills were a double-digit favorite … they smoked Pittsburgh, 38-3. Josh Allen has only faced the Packers once - back in 2018 as a rookie and Green Bay rolled 22-0. 

Get in front of the Bills train at your own peril, but this is how I see this one playing out. Look for the Bills to come out of the bye week sluggish and perhaps overlooking the struggling Packers with the second-place 5-2 Jets on deck.

If you think Aaron Rodgers - who will be without his two most comfortable receivers in Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard - and the Packers can come out with something to prove, and their defense can play up to their potential, grab the Packers in the first half.

PICK: Packers 1st half +6.5 at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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