NFL odds Week 8: Steelers over Browns is the bet you need to make (and more)
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season. There's plenty of action on the board, so let's jump in!
I like the slate, so here are my favorite wagers on the board, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
For more, click here for your full NFL odds for Week 7, and check out the all-new "NFL Odds" section on FOXSports.com and the FOX Sports app for everything you need in the sports betting world.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5 at FOX Bet) at Cleveland Browns
May I interest you in some numbers?
Mike Tomlin is 39-20-2 as an underdog. Tomlin's Steelers have covered 56% of their divisional games, the second-best record in the NFL — because Green Bay. Also, his teams have covered 61% of the time as road dogs.
More fun facts. Big Ben is 23-2-1 straight up against Cleveland. And NFL road underdogs coming off a bye that are 7-point underdogs or less are 55-34-2 against the spread (ATS) since 2010 and 25-15-1 ATS since 2016. Lastly, Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the division during the regular season under coach Kevin Stefanski.
If you can't tell where I'm going with this one, I'll spell it out for you. I'm taking the Steelers getting more than a field goal off a bye against a Browns team that has disappointed me in the past.
The Browns have lost to the three playoff teams they've faced this season. While the Steelers aren't a playoff team yet, I like some advantages in this matchup.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is rushing back from a shoulder injury. I anticipate the Steelers' defense will make him regret that decision, as Pittsburgh has the fourth-best pass-rushing unit in the NFL. This Pittsburgh defense won't fear an injured Mayfield, and will just need to stop the Browns run game to stop this offense.
On the other side, the Browns' defense is middle of the pack. Cleveland's defensive line could impact the game, but injuries at linebacker hurt will limit that side of the ball.
Pittsburgh's offense has played better of late and comes into this game off a bye. They are a veteran group, and I have to imagine they used this time off to self-scout. For instance, what plays are working and what needs to be thrown out are usually discussed during off weeks.
I expect we get the best offensive performance of the season from this Steelers squad. I'll take Pittsburgh with the hook.
PICK: Pittsburgh (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+3.5 at FOX Bet)
I understand if you are inclined to assume the Lions will be flat after an empty the playbook type of game against the Rams last weekend in Los Angeles. The Lions ran trick plays, played their butts off and almost left Los Angeles with their first win. But Detroit came up short and now faces an underwhelming Eagles squad back in Detroit.
I don't often lean on my playing experience to handicap games because more often than not, that can be the worst way to wager. However, this spot is where my experience is helpful.
I played every snap for the 2010 Carolina Panthers team that finished 2-14. I shouldn't be admitting that out loud, but it's essential here. We were competitive like the Lions for the first few weeks of the season but started 0-5. Then the 1-5 San Francisco 49ers came into town. Our team knew this was the chance for us to win a game.
I remember the feeling that week — and later in the season when we beat a poor Cardinals team — that this was the best opportunity to get into the win column, and if we played our game, it would happen.
That is how the Lions players will be approaching this game. Detroit has been in every game but one this season. The team has played with high effort and purpose under Dan Campbell, but the wins haven't come yet. Detroit will go into this game knowing a win is coming against Philadelphia.
The Eagles surprised the NFL with a massive Week 1 victory against the Falcons. Since then, they've mostly been uncompetitive for large stretches of the season. They beat the Panthers three weekends ago to notch their second win, and even that was a struggle. Carolina (Sam Darnold) handed them the game. Again, the Lions know they can win this game.
When you have two teams that are close in efficiency, as these two are, the one place to look for an edge is on special teams. That phase is all about coaching and execution, and the Lions rank 3rd in special teams, while the Eagles come in at 18th. That's enough of an edge to make my wager even sweeter.
Give me the Lions in this spot.
PICK: Lions (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5 at FOX Bet) at Minnesota Vikings
At the beginning of every week, I text the cohost of my gambling podcast about games I like. When going through the card, I immediately noticed the Vikings getting a few points at home after a bye week. It seems like an excellent spot to take a home dog, right? Not so fast, my friends. This game is not the spot to back Minnesota.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins is 1-7 ATS vs. teams off a bye and 3-10 as a primetime underdog. Also, Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is 11-2-1 against the spread off a bye.
Plus, the more you look at the matchups, it's tough to see where the Vikings are better than the Cowboys? Possibly at running back and wide receiver, but how significant are those advantages to winning? The Cowboys have the better quarterback and are far better in the trenches. Look for Dallas to win this game straight up.
However, you might want to pause wagering on this game until you see the status of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who is dealing with a calf injury. Practice reports have been positive, and I expect him to play this weekend. If Prescott does suit up, you'd get a better number by betting on the Cowboys now.
PICK: Dallas (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Miami at Buffalo (-14 at FOX Bet)
The Bills are off a bye after a heartbreaking road loss to the Titans. Buffalo is the most reliable team in the AFC and ranks first in overall team efficiency. Look for the Bills to come out with some fire this weekend.
On the flip side, the Dolphins are a wreck, with rumors speculating they are moving off their young quarterback. But beyond that news, Miami is just plain bad statistically. The Fins rank 28th in overall DVOA, 26th on offense and 25th on defense.
The Dolphins also have the worst offensive line in football, and their season feels like it's over already. The Fins blew the final minutes of the Falcons game last weekend to put the nail in their season's coffin.
When it comes to gambling, Miami has only covered one of its last six games (last weekend).
The Dolphins just aren't playing good football, so look for the Bills to get back on track.
PICK: Buffalo (-14 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 14 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!