NFL odds Week 8: Bettors strike back at sportsbooks, win big thanks to Cowboys

The NFL Week 9 odds market proved fairly fruitful for most bettors, while bookmakers were left holding a not-so-satisfying bag on Halloween weekend. One book had a particularly rough time.

"After seven weeks of bookmaker-friendly results in the NFL, the bettors won by knockout today," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said late Sunday night.

The primary culprit? Big and popular favorites managed to cover the spread or win outright. That kept moneyline parlays rolling all day long. And into Monday night, for that matter.

Let's die into a weekend where public bettors won money on the NFL.

Favorites Fallout

Blowout wins by the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys in Sunday’s early slate put bettors in a good position for the rest of the day. The Eagles plowed past Pittsburgh 35-13, easily covering as hefty 11.5-point favorites. The Cowboys nearly hung almost a 50-burger on the Bears, winning 49-29 as 9.5-point favorites.

But again, it wasn’t so much about those two teams covering the spread, but it was more about them winning straight up. Lots of recreational bettors enjoy playing moneyline parlays, in which each team selected simply has to win the game. And bettors like to put favorites on those parlay tickets.

Philly and Dallas obliged, as did a host of other favorites throughout Sunday: The Patriots, Dolphins, Vikings, Titans, Falcons, 49ers and Seahawks all won. Then the Bills – the most popular team in the NFL with public/recreational bettors – posted a relatively painless 27-17 victory over the Packers in the Sunday night game to cap it off.

Buffalo failed to cover the 10.5-point spread, but by just winning, the Bills kept moneyline parlays alive. How alive?

"The parlay liability going into Monday night will be enough to feed a small country for a month," BetMGM’s Scott said.

And surely the heavy majority of that liability will be on the Bengals, 3.5-point road favorites against the Browns. BetMGM and surely other sportsbooks will be rooting hard for a Cleveland outright upset.

More Parlay Pain

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said his customers also did well with several of the aforementioned teams. And one game that unfolded just as he’d hoped – Titans at Texans – turned out not so good.

Or, on the flip side, it turned out extremely good for one bettor.

With rookie QB Malik Willis under center, Tennessee got a massive game from running back Derrick Henry (219 yards rushing, 2 TDs) in a 17-10 victory, covering as a 1.5-point favorite. Which Andrews and his team initially thought was good for the book.

"We needed the Titans. It would’ve been a decent win," Andrews said, before revealing a blindside. "Some guy hit a 10-team parlay with the Titans as the last leg. I didn’t know it was coming."

The customer notched the win on one of South Point’s 10-team, half-point parlay cards. On those cards, bettors pick their 10 teams against the spread (ATS). And since all the spreads are half-point (i.e. 3.5, 2.5, etc.), the cards guarantee a winner or loser in every game. There are no ties.

The South Point bettor went a perfect 10-0. Andrews wouldn’t reveal the amount wagered or won, but this should suffice:

"It paid out at 750-1 odds," Andrews said.

Remember the Titans

The Titans are the hottest team in the league, short of the undefeated Eagles. Tennessee has won five in a row straight up (SU) and is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Sunday’s win at Houston, with a backup QB who contributed almost nothing, was a particularly strong sting for The SuperBook.

"The Titans winning in Houston was our worst result of the day," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "The public didn’t care who was playing QB for Tennessee, they just wanted to fade Houston."

However, the Steelers-Eagles result – generally bad for most oddsmakers – was helpful to The SuperBook.

"The public and the sharps were on the Steelers plus the points, so Pittsburgh not covering was a good outcome," Degnon said. "It was basically a break-even NFL Sunday."

Back to School

The college football Week 9 odds market proved much more fruitful for The SuperBook. Most notably, the wild ending between TCU and West Virginia was a home run.

For those who missed it: Leading 34-31, TCU faced a fourth-and-1 at West Virginia’s 29-yard line with 26 seconds remaining. Rather than kick the field goal, the Horned Frogs opted to go for it, looking to end the game.

But instead of running the ball, TCU caught the Mountaineers and went over the top. QB Max Duggan threw a 29-yard TD pass to Savion Williams, and the Horned Frogs won 41-31. Oh, and they covered the 7.5-point spread – which The SuperBook needed because West Virginia was a trendy underdog play Saturday.

"TCU covering at West Virginia was one of our best results, so we were thankful for those end-of-game shenanigans," Degnon said. "Tennessee blowing the doors off Kentucky was also a big winner for us. It was a great college football Saturday for the book."

The third-ranked Vols rumbled to a 44-6 victory over No. 19 Kentucky. The Wildcats were 11.5-point underdogs and another trendy ‘dog play.

WynnBet junior trader Caden Wickwire echoed Degnon’s comments.

"It wasn’t a great NFL week. We had a small loss," Wickwire said. "But we held really well in college football. The college football [results] more than made up for the less-than-spectacular week in the NFL."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

One of the largest bets reported this weekend was on an unlikely team: the flagging Denver Broncos. 

A customer of Caesars Sports poured $325,000 on Denver +3 (-130) vs. Jacksonville in the London game. The Broncos ended up nabbing the outright victory, 21-17.

It was a $250,000 win for the bettor.

Another Caesars customer fired the following bets on NFL Week 8:

• $110,000 on Bucs +1.5 vs. Ravens (loss)
• $110,000 on Cowboys -9.5 vs. Bears (win)
• $110,000 on Seahawks -3 vs. Giants (win)
• $110,000 on Browns +3.5 vs. Bengals (TBD, Monday night)
• $110,000 on Bengals-Browns Under 47 (TBD, Monday night)

By going 2-1 on those first three wagers, the bettor is up $90,000. Pending tonight’s results, that number could grow significantly, get completely wiped out and then some, or stay fairly stagnant.

I like being married, so I’d never wager like that, even if I had the bankroll to do so. #ChilisMoney is your friend, folks. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.