NFL odds Week 8: Bet on the Browns to dominate the Steelers (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
How wacky of an NFL season have we had so far? We can look no further than some truly crazy lines this upcoming weekend to get a glimpse of what the hell is going on.
The Bengals are 10.5-point favorites on the road against the Jets. Full stop. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites against the Dolphins, who won 10 games last year. The Browns are favored by 3.5-points against the rival Steelers — and that's with Cleveland not even knowing who is starting at quarterback. The 3-4 Colts are favored by 1.5-points at home against the 5-2 Titans after Tennessee had the best back-to-back wins in the NFL this season.
Now that you've wrapped your head around all of that, let's get to the games.
Here are my best NFL bets for Week 8, with odds via FOX Bet.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (-3 at FOX Bet)
With nearly half a season of data in the books, the computers love the Cleveland Browns, despite the public souring on them due to a 4-3 record.
It looks like QB Baker Mayfield should be good to go for this game, but I like the Browns in this spot either way. I know it's tough to put your money behind backup quarterback Case Keenum, but remember, he's been with coach Kevin Stefanski for three seasons.
Statistically, the Browns rank second to Buffalo in net yards per play (1.3), and the Football Outsiders DVOA metric has Cleveland sixth in the NFL, ahead of the Bengals, Packers, Raiders and Titans.
Not surprisingly, great offenses have given the Browns problems, as their losses have been to offenses ranked fifth (Chiefs), eighth (Arizona), and 11th (Chargers).
Luckily for Cleveland, the Steelers rank 22nd on offense. Immobile QB Ben Roethlisberger will be a sitting duck in the pocket against Myles Garrett, who leads the NFL in sacks, is second in quarterback hits, and fifth in QB hurries.
The two times Pittsburgh went up against top-10 defenses — which the Browns are — the Steelers averaged just 4.6 yards per play against the Bills and 4.4 vs. the Bengals.
There are a lot of 3.5's in the market, but in a divisional matchup in which the "revenge" narrative applies after Cleveland's butt-kicking of Pittsburgh in the playoffs, I'm comfortable paying the extra juice to get the line down to 3 (-133).
PICK: Browns (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
CAROLINA (+3 at FOX Bet) at ATLANTA
This week I'm making some uncomfortable bets, and the reeling Panthers are one of them. We know they will be without star running back Christian McCaffrey and have a quarterback in Sam Darnold whose confidence is potentially shattered after getting benched last week.
On the flip side, the Falcons have won nine of 11 games against the Panthers. Carolina has also lost four weeks in a row, so why back them here?
The stock adage of buy low, sell high. Nobody's touching the Panthers in this spot, but they'll gladly load up on Atlanta, which has won three of four. Dig a little deeper, and you'll see the Falcons' wins have come against teams with a combined record of 4-16.
The Panthers will have a significant edge with their front seven, especially if star linebacker Shaq Thompson returns from injury — he's finally practicing again. They'll need some combination of Thompson and safeties Juston Burris/ Jeremy Chinn to contain rookie Kyle Pitts, who has dominated the last two weeks.
The Panthers must also get a pass rush from struggling Brian Burns and Haason Reddick because they've been forced to blitz a ton (second in the NFL in blitz percentage; 24th last year).
Ultimately, the Falcons shouldn't be favored by three over anyone, as we saw last week in Miami, where they didn't cover as small favorites.
PICK: Carolina (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
NEW ENGLAND at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4 at FOX Bet)
Everyone's talking about the Patriots after 500+ yards and 50+ points last weekend against the Jets. Drill down on the Patriots, and some things start to jump out, which explains this line.
This season, the Patriots have three wins, all coming against rookie quarterbacks (Zach Wilson 2x, Davis Mills). The Patriots have played four games at home and lost three relatively close games (Cowboys, Dolphins, Saints, Bucs).
For all the Mac Jones "Rookie of the Year" hype, he's only really had to win one game — the rally against the worst team in the league, the Houston Texans. New England was favored by a touchdown in that game and trailed almost the entire time.
There's also the "Chargers revenge" game for the narrative crowd after last year's 45-0 loss at home. I'm more interested in the suddenly-conservative Bill Belichick (league-low four attempts on fourth down) vs. rookie coach Brandon Staley (12 attempts) matchup.
LA's defense got healthier out of the bye week, with two key starters likely to return — safety Nasir Adderley and linebacker Drue Tranquill — to stop the Patriots run game. The latter grades out as the ninth-best linebacker per PFF and missed the bloodbath in Baltimore when the Ravens rushed for 187 yards.
Chargers roll in this spot. Lay the points.
PICK: Chargers (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at FOX Bet)
After being on the wrong side of the most shocking result of the season so far — Titans 27, Chiefs 3 — I'm going against Tennessee again.
*Slaps forehead* I get it — nobody is hotter than the Titans, having won back-to-back games at home against two of the best teams in the NFL (Buffalo and Kansas City). We are, after all, talking about an offense that scored on 11 straight possessions bridging the Bills and Chiefs games. So why go against them? Because the Titans are overvalued in the betting market.
How soon do we forget this team was favored against Arizona and lost by 25. Tennessee was also favored against the Jets and lost outright. A lucky defensive performance against the Chiefs doesn't make this a good stop unit.
You have to assume that the Colts — who have covered four in a row — will ride their healthy offensive line to a ball-control attack on the legs of emerging star running back Jonathan Taylor. And if Carson Wentz isn't making mistakes (no interceptions in the last five games!), his screen game should be highly effective against the Titans' powerful pass rush of Denico Autry and Harold Landry.
Yes, yes, I know what Derrick Henry has done to the Colts in the last four games (135.75 yards per game). But, please look at his banged-up offensive line and the 86 yards on the ground the lowly Chiefs defense held him to. And the 70 more touches Henry has than any other player in the NFL. Now ask yourself, why are the Colts still favored?
Buying this line down to Indianapolis -1 (-125).
Pick: Colts (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 point
Four-team, 7.5-point TEASER (+235)
Geno Smith has fared well as an underdog, covering both of his starts this season. But now he's favored and expected to beat Jacksonville, which is coming off a bye.
It's nice that Urban Meyer realized he has a very good running back in James Robinson — perhaps he'll use him against this porous Seattle defense and set up bombs to Marvin Jones against a terrible secondary.
Concern: Since 2019, rookie head coaches are 2-8 against the spread off a bye. Meyer has shown nothing so far to inspire confidence, but he has had two weeks to prepare for Smith.
Under no circumstances could I lay double digits on the road here — third straight road game — with the Bengals coming off their largest win this century. But teasing Joe Burrow down to a field goal? Certainly.
The Jets were humiliated by the Patriots, and they'll bounce back this week defensively for sure. But offensively? Mike White? Yeah, that's a problem against a feisty Bengals front seven.
The Saints dominated Tom Brady and the Bucs in two regular-season meetings last year, and New Orleans would've won the playoff game if the offense didn't turn the ball over four times.
Last week, the Tampa offense was fine without Antonio Brown. This week will be a different story. Marshon Lattimore has dominated Mike Evans in their eight meetings (just 23 receptions on 48 targets, plus four interceptions vs. three touchdowns allowed), so where will Brady find his edge?
If this game were at night, I'd put some money on the Saints' moneyline.
I had the Cowboys in this spot, but it's increasingly looking like Dak Prescott won't play, so I'm going to swap in the Rams.
It's not a traditionally great teaser leg going through the key numbers of 3 and 7. And this could be in jeopardy if Tyrod Taylor starts because he's at least competent. But the Texans are a disaster, with a -1.66 net yards per play, by far the worst in the NFL. How good are the Rams? They rank fourth.
LA was sleepy last week and not ready for the kitchen sink Matt Campbell's Lions threw at them. The Rams won't be caught napping again this weekend.
Jacksonville +11
Cincinnati -3
New Orleans +12
Los Angeles -7
Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.