NFL odds Week 8: Aaron Rodgers double-digit underdog for first time in career
By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer
One number leaps off the page when poring over the NFL Week 8 odds. The Green Bay Packers, perennial Super Bowl contenders and among the preseason title favorites, are 11.5-point underdogs at BetMGM (+10.5 at FOX Bet) prior to the Sunday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills.
And that’s after the Pack opened at +10.5, so there’s already been a one-point adjustment. At first blush, if you hadn’t really been paying attention this season, you’d be forgiven for thinking, well, surely Aaron Rodgers is injured, right?
No. Rodgers is perfectly healthy, making this situation even harder to fathom.
"I never thought I’d see Rodgers as a double-digit underdog," said BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton, who’s been behind sportsbook counters for 20 years. "Rodgers was the MVP last year. The Packers were 12-1 (+1200) to win the Super Bowl at the start of this season. When I first saw the line was 10.5, I couldn’t believe it. I was shocked.
"Green Bay is bad, but 11.5? That seems crazy. But that said, what should the line be? I guess it’s right because the line already went up a point."
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Down and Out
The Packers’ downfall began innocently enough. After Green Bay opened the season with a surprising 23-7 loss at Minnesota, Rodgers & Co. rebounded with three consecutive wins to right the ship.
But the last of those three wins was perhaps a sign that not all was well in Cheeseland. New England – a 10-point road underdog – was down to third-string QB Bailey Zappe, yet forced the Packers to overtime, with Green Bay eking out a 27-24 win.
Even a week later, in London, when the Packers lost 27-22, it still seemed like an anomaly. Hey, it’s the London game, a long/weird road trip, things happen.
But then the New York Jets went to Green Bay and waxed the Packers 27-10 in Week 6. And in Week 7 on Sunday, Green Bay lost again to Washington 23-21 as a 4-point favorite.
"At season’s start, I don’t think many people would have believed that the Packers would have lost to the Giants, Jets and Commanders in consecutive weeks," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said. "The result is the Packers open as 10.5-point underdogs at Buffalo."
Uncharted Territory
FOX Bet currently has this line set at Buffalo -10.5, but the spread is already up a point to Bills -11.5 at BetMGM. Rodgers has never been a double-digit ‘dog in his career, but it appears certain he will be this week, assuming the line holds for the Sunday Night Football matchup.
The results of the past few weeks are impossible for oddsmakers to overlook.
Green Bay is 3-4 straight up (SU) and 2-5 against the spread (ATS). Along with three consecutive SU losses, the Packers have dumped four in a row ATS. And all that came against teams that are not the caliber of Super Bowl favorite Buffalo.
Scott expects bettors to pile on the Bills, as they have all season long.
"History tells us when a line is double figures, our customers are happy to lay the points," Scott said. "I would expect this week to be the same, and the Bills covering will be a loser for us."
Can this number get higher?
"I don’t think it will, but I’m often wrong," Scott said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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