NFL odds Week 7: Warren Sharp's betting edges on Giants-Jaguars, Seahawks-Chargers
By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer
This week's NFL slate features some great matchups, including the Seahawks-Chargers and Giants-Jaguars games on FOX. Granted, this week's card isn't as popular as last week's, but some games still present value from a betting perspective, so let's focus on those.
I ran my models to give you my favorite betting edges and predictions for Week 7 of the season. My goal for this weekly column is always to provide tidbits you didn’t know before reading.
So, let's leap into my favorite edges of the week, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
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Seahawks at Chargers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and the FOX Sports App)
Over the last three games, the Chargers are getting pressure on opposing QBs at the NFL’s fourth-lowest rate. That makes sense, given they lost Joey Bosa in Week 3 to a torn groin, and he’s missed the last three games.
On the season, the Chargers now have the NFL’s third-lowest pressure rate on early downs in the first three quarters of games.
They also blitz at a below-average rate.
We all know that Geno Smith has delivered one of the best performances to date on the year, averaging a top-5 ranking in EPA (+0.11/att) and success rate (49%) and YPA (8.0).
But when he’s clean (unpressured), all of those numbers increase pretty substantially: +0.29 EPA/att, 55% success and 8.2 YPA.
On the season, the Chargers have played three offenses ranking top-15 and three offenses ranking 20th or worse. They allowed 38, 28 and 27 points against the above-average offenses (Jaguars, Browns and Chiefs) and went 1-2 in those games, nearly losing all three.
They allowed 16, 19 and 24 points vs. the bottom-half offenses (Broncos, Texans and Raiders) and went 3-0.
Seattle shifted to a more run-centric game plan last week against the Cardinals, largely because Arizona trailed most of the game and could not mount a comeback.
It remains to be seen if the Seahawks will employ a similar strategy against the Chargers, but if they do, it should have success.
The Chargers rank 32nd in YPC allowed on early-down runs, giving up an astounding 5.8 YPC on the ground to opposing RBs. And they rank 10th-worst in both success rate allowed and EPA/play allowed on these early-down runs.
And this stadium does very little to provide a home-field advantage.
When not made underdogs of over a touchdown, teams are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) and 5-5 SU playing in this stadium vs. the Chargers.
And playing in this stadium facing the Rams, teams are 6-3 ATS and 5-4 SU.
That means road teams are winning in SoFi Stadium more than the home team, and road teams are a combined 13-6 ATS the last two seasons.
PICK: Seahawks (+6 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)
Giants at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and the FOX Sports App)
This should be a massive spot for the Jaguars, as they should have won their last two games.
And sharp betting groups have nonstop bet on the Jaguars during their latest 0-3 run to find themselves sitting at 2-4 on the season.
Meanwhile, the Giants have no business sitting at 5-1 right now. They have led for just 23.3% of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate of all teams with a winning record and 25th in the NFL.
New York is scoring on just 27% of first-half possessions but 50% of second-half possessions (second-highest rate).
The Ravens running backs averaged 8.0 YPC on early-down runs vs. the Giants defense last week.
I think it’s going under the radar how strong the Jaguars run offense has been. Jacksonville has gained 2.2 yards before contact per rush — best in the NFL.
The Giants run defense is highly vulnerable. They are allowing 5.48 YPC to opposing running backs (30th) while allowing a gain of 10 or yards on 16.3% of the carries against them (31st).
The Jaguars have played the eighth-most difficult schedule of defenses this season. Every single opponent they’ve faced has ranked top-14 in total defense except for the Houston Texans.
Now they face the 30th-ranked Giants. And New York has played a ton of bad offenses along the way, including the Bears, Panthers, Titans and Cowboys, all of which rank below average, including two of the three worst in the NFL.
The Jaguars are just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency.
All of this should translate into a solid spot to back the undervalued Jaguars while fading the overvalued Giants.
The stars are aligned.
And yet, I’m hesitant.
And that’s because of two key factors:
1) How often the Giants get pressure against how Trevor Lawrence does against it.
2) The rate of blitzing and man coverage the Giants use vs. how Trevor Lawrence does against it.
Let’s start with 1) pressure:
The Giants record the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is the fourth-most sensitive quarterback to pressure.
When not pressured, he’s +0.19 EPA/att.
When pressured, he’s -0.51 EPA/att.
Only the Pats quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Jimmy Garoppolo have worse splits.
So when you’re going against the Colts, with a below-average pressure rate, Lawrence has looked solid. Same for when he went against the Chargers, in a game they lost Joey Bosa in the first quarter and ranked No. 3 worst in pressure rate.
But when he went against Washington, he struggled. As he did in the rain against the Eagles. The Texans limited the passing attack by playing two-high on 81% of the Jags dropbacks in the first three quarters.
Now 2) blitzing and man coverage:
Per Sharp Football Analysis’s Rich Hribar, in two games against the Colts, Lawrence has completed 45-of-52 passes (86.5%) for 400 yards (7.7 Y/A) with three passing touchdowns (5.8% touchdown rate). Against everyone else this season, Lawrence has completed 58.3% of his passes for 6.6 Y/A and a 3.9% touchdown rate.
If you are facing the Giants, you should know you are getting blitzed. New York is blitzing on a league-high 47.5% of opponent passing plays, playing man coverage on 48.2% (second-highest). New York is playing man coverage on 61.1% of their blitzes on passing plays, which is ninth in the league.
Lawrence is averaging just 5.3 air yards per attempt against the blitz this season, which ranks 31st in the league. His 79.9 rating against the blitz ranks 24th. On blitzes with man coverage behind them, Lawrence is averaging just 3.6 yards per pass attempt, 29th in the league, but he is averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt (fourth) against zone blitzes.
There is no way to look at the Giants offense and suggest they should be able to excel against the Jaguars defense.
However, last week, the Jaguars allowed the Colts offense to convert 67% of third downs. And the Colts came back to win that game. Something the Giants are intimately familiar with.
The recipe for a Giants upset is to stay in the game early and force Lawrence to need to throw more late against blitzes, man coverage and pressure. Do that, and the Giants have a shot. But if the Jaguars are up early and can run the ball late on the Giants, this could finally be the week the late-game magic isn’t there for the Giants.
I was thinking of taking the Jaguars until I dug deeper into Trevor Lawrence facing this defense, so I will pass.
Browns at Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
In Weeks 1-5, there was no offense more balanced and efficient on early downs than the Browns.
Their EPA/dropback was +0.14. That ranked No. 3.
Their EPA/rush was +0.10. That ranked No. 2.
They were the only team in the top 5 in both metrics.
And then, they met their old nemesis – Bill Belichick.
Belichick’s Patriots knew Jacoby Brissett well.
Belichick’s Patriots also knew this Browns offense quite well.
Last year, the Patriots held the Browns to seven points, winning in a landslide 45-7.
Should we have been surprised the game was a little closer, but still a dominant Patriots win, 38-15?
Perhaps not.
Against the Patriots last week, the Browns gained just -0.65 EPA/att on early down passes. That ranked dead last in the NFL. Their rushing was better, but not by much, recording only -0.10 EPA/att.
It was, by far, their worst performance of the season.
Does this mean the Browns offense is completely broken?
No, it does not. And the Ravens defense still needs to be on its toes because their last two opponents, the Giants and the Bengals, still don’t come close to this offense.
But Baltimore’s offense had yet another game they should have won but couldn’t seal the deal.
No team had more EPA/rush on early downs last week than the Ravens, at +0.32/att. And Baltimore was top-7 in EPA/pass on early downs as well.
But the Ravens missed the FG, settled for two FGs inside the Giants' 16-yard-line, threw an interception that led to a touchdown and fumbled late to prevent a game-winning drive.
This should be an eruption spot for the Baltimore Ravens offense.
The Ravens just finished playing three top-10 defenses in the Bills, Patriots and Bengals.
Then they got the No. 30 defense in the Giants.
And despite playing their former DC, who knew everything there is to know about Lamar Jackson, the Ravens still converted 40% of their early downs into first downs, the highest rate in the NFL last week.
They just fell short in the red zone.
But now?
Now they go up against an even worse defense than the Giants.
Now they go up against the No. 31 Browns, who have not played anyone. Literally.
The Browns have played the NFL’s third-easiest schedule of offenses and still rank as the second-worst defense.
The Ravens offense is the best offense the Browns will have faced this year.
And they also have a terrible run defense (30th) which should help a Ravens offense that is finally getting support on the ground from its running backs.
Look at these splits from the Ravens RBs:
Week 1-4 yards before contact/rush: 1.2 (No. 17)
Week 5+ yards before contact/rush: 3.5 (No. 2)
Week 1-4 EPA/rush: -0.14 (No. 25)
Week 5+ EPA/rush: +0.16 (No. 2)
Whether it’s Kenyan Drake (119 rushing yards last week), J.K. Dobbins or both, the Ravens RBs should have a ton of success against this terrible run defense.
The Browns allow the most EPA/rush to opposing RBs of any team on the season and allow the second-most yards before contact per rush (2.2 yards).
Last week, the Browns simply tried to force the fourth-string rookie QB to beat them by loading the box with seven-plus defenders on 91% of the Patriots early downs.
It still didn’t work, and their pass defense was lit up for 309 yards while still giving up three rushing touchdowns.
It’s been that kind of year for this Browns defense – zero answers.
Despite playing terrible QBs.
And an injured Justin Herbert playing despite rib injections
Now? They have to try to stop Lamar Jackson. Finally, a top-flight QB who is fully healthy. Finally, a top-10 passing attack the Browns will have to deal with.
I don’t anticipate it going well for them.
PICK: Ravens -3.5 in the first half
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Steelers at Dolphins (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
It’s easy to look at the Dolphins and say that this was a team that jumped out early this season, looked decent and then showed more of its true colors. They lost their last three games, two of which were by double digits, and the return of Tua won’t mean much to this offense.
That’s the cop-out.
That’s the lazy man’s narrative.
A few things to poke a few holes in your argument.
1) Did you realize that Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the Bengals game with nearly six minutes remaining in the second quarter, and despite that, on the road on a short week Thursday game, off the brutal heat game vs. the Bills, that the Dolphins led the Bengals in the fourth quarter?
The Bengals scored 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points to produce a 12-point win.
2) Did you realize that Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the Jets game after ONE play, and the rookie Skylar Thompson, with zero practice all season with the first team offense, entered the game at that point, and despite that, on the road, the Dolphins trailed by only two, 19-17, with less than 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter?
The Jets scored 21 unanswered points in the final 9:22 of the game to produce the lopsided 40-17 final score, but this game was a two-point game for most of the third quarter and early into the fourth quarter.
3) Did you realize that Skylar Thompson was knocked out of the Vikings game just ONE minute into the second quarter, and Teddy Bridgewater had to fill in for him after not practicing at all week due to being in the concussion protocol? Despite that, the Dolphins trailed by just six points late in the fourth quarter and were driving for another touchdown to take the lead.
But on a second down, after gaining enough yardage to convert the first down, Jaylen Waddle fumbled the ball on the Vikings 26-yard line. Instead of a first-and-10 for the Dolphins with 4:00 to go and in scoring territory, Minnesota had the ball. After a 6-yard run, Dalvin Cook broke off a 53-yard TD run and the Vikings made the 2-point conversion. And what might have been a 1-point deficit had Miami scored turned into a 14-point Vikings lead.
And beyond that, the Dolphins massively outgained the Vikings the entire game, and it wasn’t close.
First downs: MIA 23, MIN 11
Total yards: MIA 458, MIN 234
Passing Yards: MIA 418, MIN 175
We could go on, but the point is Miami should have won this game despite being down three turnovers. But they lost in what looked like a lopsided game which was far closer.
4) For THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, the Miami Dolphins have seen their starting QB get knocked out of the game. For THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, a backup QB who either didn’t take first-team reps, had never even played with the starters or who spent the entire week leading into the game in concussion protocol was inserted into the game. A brutal turn of events for those QBs and Mike McDaniel, as every single one of those QBs has different skill sets, not to mention the backups throw with a different hand than the starter.
And during this time, the Dolphins have played the third-toughest schedule of opposing defenses, including the fourth-toughest schedule of passing defenses.
This should make life even more difficult for the insane QB situation.
And yet where does the Dolphins offense rank right now?
Sixth in total offense including fifth in passing offense.
That’s absurd. It shouldn’t be possible.
How do you play half the season to date with multiple backup QBs, against the third most difficult schedule of defenses and have the fifth-highest passing offense?
So that’s my argument for anyone who thinks this Dolphins team isn’t solid, particularly now that they have their starting quarterback back.
Now the Dolphins get their starter back and can play a Steelers team who just had a win gift wrapped for them.
The Bucs should have passed the ball more often against a terrible Steelers secondary last week. But they didn’t.
On first down in the first three quarters, the Bucs dropped back to pass the ball just 39% of their offensive plays.
These runs gained 3.6 YPC, -0.05 EPA/att and 43% success.
This is why, on second downs, they averaged 8.2 yards to go, the sixth-longest in the NFL.
It made no sense at all.
In total, on 42 early-down plays in the first three quarters of games, aside from three throwaways and a sack, this was the Bucs game plan on offense:
12 WR targets: +0.70 EPA/att, 11.0 YPA, 75% success
19 runs: -0.10 EPA/att, 3.2 YPC, 47% success
7 non-WR targets: -0.31 EPA/att, 3.9 YPA, 29% success
That’s correct – only 12 of the 42 plays were actual WR targets to attack the vulnerability of the Steelers depleted secondary. At the same time, the team instead called a ton of runs and non-WR targets, all of which produced terrible results.
Pittsburgh has played two offenses that rank 15th or better in efficiency this year:
38-3 loss to the Bills
29-17 loss to the Browns
We since have learned the Browns have one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. And despite that, on the Steelers final seven drives of the game, they didn’t make it inside the Browns 43-yard line except for once, and that was to kick the FG.
But both of those losses were by double digits.
Now the Steelers have to take on the Dolphins, who have the No. 6 offense in the NFL, despite everything I shared earlier about the deck stacked against them.
If there were time for a buy low and a sell high moment, this would be it. The Steelers, off their biggest win of the year, and their first win in their last five games, traveling on the road to face a team that is far better than the final scores indicate the last three weeks and is finally getting their QB1 back. Dolphins look solid in teasers this week, and if you had to pick the full-game ATS, I’d take the Dolphins.
PICK: Dolphins (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points
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