NFL odds Week 7: Wacky wins and bad beats
Vince Lombardi (the guy with his name on the NFL trophy given to the Super Bowl-winning team) once said, "Football is a game of inches."
Bettors either cashed in or lamented that phrase at the end of the New York Giants-Jacksonville Jaguars game on Sunday, a 23-17 win for the G-Men.
Welcome to the world of wacky wins and bad beats in sports betting.
Each week, we'll recap the betting plays that had some people cashing in and others tearing up their tickets in frustration. To paraphrase famed broadcaster Al Michaels, "those plays are significant to some."
Let's dive into this week's craziness!
Matter of inches
Bettors on both sides had frayed nerves in the final minutes of the Giants-Jaguars game.
Boosted by big runs by Saquon Barkley (13, 20 yards) and quarterback Daniel Jones (15), the Giants – +3 at FOX Bet, despite entering the game with a better record (5-1 vs. 2-4) – got a 34-yard field goal by Graham Gano with 1:04 to go to extend their lead to six points.
The Jaguars took over at their 25 after a touchback. Consider the ebbs and flows that ensued:
– On first and 10 from the Jaguars' 35, Trevor Lawrence was sacked, but the play was nullified by defensive holding with 51 seconds to go.
– On the ensuing play, Lawrence had a pass intercepted by Fabian Moreau at midfield, but the play was wiped out as the Giants were called for illegal use of hands.
– Given new life at their 45, the Jaguars proceeded to throw an incompletion, got called for a false start, then threw two more incomplete passes, bringing up fourth down and 15 with 22 seconds to go.
– Lawrence then completed a pass down the middle for 28 yards to Marvin Jones Jr. to the Giants' 32 and a first down. Wait, there's more …
– Dexter Lawrence was called for roughing the passer on the play, giving the Jaguars 15 move yards to the Giants' 17.
– Five seconds were remaining after two incomplete passes. On third down, Trevor Lawrence completed a pass to Christian Kirk. But after all of that, Kirk was tackled at the 1-yard line by Xavier McKinney and Julian Love as time expired.
So Jaguars moneyline bettors were one yard and an extra point from cashing in. And Over bettors in the Over/Under (43.5 combined points) would've won with a touchdown. We don't know what hurt more, Jags on the moneyline or the Over.
Jacksonville skeptics cashed in as the Jaguars are 0-5 straight up (SU) as the favorite since 2020.
One bettor, books cash in on Panthers
The Tampa Buccaneers were a 13.5-point favorite at FOX Bet over the Carolina Panthers, who were starting a third-string quarterback (PJ Walker) and were led by an interim coach after Matt Rhule was fired on Oct. 10.
Bettors were all over Tampa Bay, BetMGM Data Analyst John Ewing tweeted.
That didn't dissuade one bettor, who plunked down $5,000 on the Panthers moneyline (+500 at some books).
Final: Panthers 21, Buccaneers 3.
The bettor collected a cool $25,000!
No more carries for Kamara
Alvin Kamara not getting a carry in the final 22 ½ minutes cost a parlay bettor from cashing their five-way in-game parlay during the New Orleans-Arizona game Thursday night.
Kamara got a carry for 3 yards with 7:57 to go in the third quarter.
The Cardinals scored a touchdown on the ensuing possession to expand their lead to 35-17, so the Saints started throwing the ball on almost every play.
Kamara finished with 49 rushing yards on 11 carries in the 42-34 loss. The bettor hit the other four legs of the parlay but failed on Kamara rushing for 50+ yards.
The $5 in-game parlay would've paid $74.12.
NFL betting notes
– The Indianapolis Colts have not covered the first-half spread in nine consecutive games, including 0-7 this season.
– Since the Green Bay Packers beat the Buccaneers 14-12 on Sept. 25, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are a combined 0-8 ATS.
– Jaguars QB Lawrence is 0-4 as a favorite against the first-half spread in his career.
– The Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 35-17, ending their streak of covering against the spread (ATS) in the first six games this season.
– Speaking of the Bengals, second-half Under bettors love them, as Cincinnati has allowed a combined 22 points in the past 15 third quarters.
– For bettors who like the Under: Since scoring six touchdowns in the 48-45 loss to Seattle on Oct. 2, the Detroit Lions have not scored a touchdown in the eight quarters since.
College bettors fret finish
In college football Saturday, the No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats held off SMU 29-27 as the Mustangs tried to rally by scoring 13 unanswered points late in the fourth quarter.
SMU cut the deficit to two points with a 1-yard touchdown run with 1:57 to go but failed on the ensuing two-point conversion pass attempt.
The finish affected bettors in multiple ways:
– The Bearcats (-3.5) failed to cover because of that TD, and a tipped pass played a role.
SMU's RJ Maryland caught a tipped pass on fourth down and 14 for a 16-yard TD pass with 5:09 to go to bring the Mustangs within one score, 29-21, as SMU bettors who took the points cashed in, thanks to the two late scores.
– SMU moneyline bettors (+140) were counting on the two-point conversion to have a chance to cash in.
– Had the Mustangs converted the two-point conversion Over bettors (59.5) would've cashed in since the game would've been tied at 29 (58 combined points), meaning even the lowest possible deciding score (safety, two points) would've pushed the game Over.
Sun Devils inches away on moneyline
A couple of inches kept Arizona State from attempting a game-winning field goal against Stanford.
The Sun Devils coming that close defied the odds, given the circumstances.
Trailing 15-14, the Sun Devils faced fourth-and-19 from the Cardinal's 43.
Elijhah Badger made an apparent one-handed catch at the 1-yard yard line with three seconds remaining.
Upon further review, the pass was correctly called incomplete, and Stanford ran out the clock.
Here's a closer look at Badger's foot and the sideline. Sun Devils bettors who took the three points cashed in, but Arizona State moneyline bettors (+120) missed out.
Not a snap for Weber State
When was the last time you've seen more than one punt snap result in a safety outside, maybe, junior varsity football?
Weber State (-3) gave up a record four safeties when punt snaps went out of the end zone, giving Montana State eight points. That is an NCAA record for FBS and FCS.
Final: Bobcats 43, Wildcats 38. Montana State was +118 on the moneyline.
Stay tuned for more of the wackiness!
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