NFL odds Week 7: Best bets for Bears-Patriots, more

By Sam Panayotovich
Gambling Analyst

Nobody is more upset about a 1-4 weekend than me.

Our best bets (18-12 YTD) are still in the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

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Minnesota at No. 16 Penn State (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

It’s not looking good for Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan.

The super senior took a vicious hit last week at Illinois, and the word out of the Twin Cities is that Morgan hasn’t practiced all week. The odds are good that backup Cole Kramer will get the call, and he has completed only 14 passes in four years. If Minnesota can’t throw the ball, they’re in trouble.

It will be a "White Out" at Happy Valley, and that place will be absolutely rocking. That’s not exactly an ideal situation for a backup quarterback. Kramer won’t be able to hear himself think, and changing plays at the line of scrimmage will definitely be an issue.

I’m laying this number before Morgan is likely ruled out.

PICK: Penn State (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

No. 14 Syracuse at No. 5 Clemson (Noon ET Saturday, ABC)

Finally, some respect for Clemson.

The Tigers have covered three-straight games against NC State, Boston College and Florida State, and now they’re almost two-touchdown favorites against undefeated Syracuse. The origin of this line says a lot.

I have a feeling many people will be running to the window to take all those points with the No. 14 Orange, but I’m not sold. Syracuse has been a great story, but this is easily the toughest test of its season. Don’t be surprised if Clemson wins by three touchdowns.

Lay this number now before it gets to -14.

PICK: Clemson (-13.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 13.5 points

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Jets at Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Jets hype is getting ridiculous.

Denver was a 3.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line in Las Vegas, and it’s wild to me that the game is basically down to a pick ’em. Zach Wilson and the Baby Jets have morphed into a public darling, and that’s never a good sign.

The Broncos’ pass defense is still one of the best in the league, and if they can put pressure on Wilson, there’s a strong chance that he’ll make some mistakes. Ejiro Evero’s defense already has 20 sacks this season and has only allowed five passing touchdowns.

This won’t be a popular pick, but I’m riding with Denver.

PICK: Broncos (-115 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

Bears at Patriots (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

How many points will the Bears score?

Hopefully, you just said your answer out loud, and it was no higher than 10 or 13 points. I have a hard time envisioning the ever-erratic Justin Fields mounting much of an offensive attack against Bill Belichick’s defense.

Chicago is averaging 15.5 points per game — second-worst in the NFL — and odds are good that Belichick will have Fields seeing ghosts. New England has feasted on young quarterbacks for decades, and Fields is easily confused. The Bears offensive line stinks, and playmakers are few and far between.

A 23-7 final score feels way too possible.

PICK: Under 39.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.