NFL odds Week 7 best bets: Bet on the Chiefs to blow out the Titans (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It's easy to talk about winners; it's much more difficult to stomach the losers. But the latter is where you learn your lessons in gambling.
For instance, take last week. I loved the Cleveland Browns all week. The line went my way, and I had closing line value. I was so pot-committed, I neglected to notice that both of their starting tackles were ruled out Sunday. The trenches are everything in football. The public will talk fantasy players and the flashy names you know, but without an offensive line, you're toast.
You could see the line caving routinely from the opening series, and Baker Mayfield was in trouble all game long. What a whiff on my part. Hopefully, there will be fewer lessons this week.
With that, let's jump into my best bets for NFL Week 7, with odds via FOX Bet.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3 at FOX Bet) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
This year, the Raiders have killed me from the season opener. First against Baltimore, then the Pittsburgh game, to last week, against the Broncos. As I watched Derek Carr torch Denver last week, it hit me - the Raiders are fantastic in the underdog role (3-1 ATS), but as favorites, they're 0-2 ATS.
After losing their coach, the Raiders find themselves as favorites against an Eagles team getting healthy at the right time after a big divisional win. Tight end Dallas Goedert is back from covid, and more importantly, their best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, also returns. That moves left tackle Jordan Mailata back to his natural position at LT. They finally have the same OL back that mauled the Falcons in Week 1 and should contain the Raiders DL - notably Maxx Crosby, who has graded out as the best pass rusher in the NFL so far leading the NFL in QB hits (11) and hurries (25).
The Eagles' defensive line is not generating pressure (24th), but part of that is facing elite offensive lines like Dallas and Tampa. They've been ferocious when they stepped down in class, like the game against Carolina (3 sacks, 6 TFL, 8 QB hits).
The Raiders offensive line is a train wreck. There's a significant concern about Philly's weak linebackers in coverage against Darren Waller. If they overload on him, that'll leave Darius Slay or Steven Nelson on an island deep against Henry Ruggs. But that's assuming Derek Carr's line holds up.
The Eagles are my strongest play this week, and this line will go down as it gets closer to kickoff.
PICK: Eagles (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3.5 at FOX Bet)
This week, the Colts seem to be a popular pick after nearly beating the mighty Ravens and crushing the terrible Texans. But you have to wonder if they'll be road-weary, playing their 4th road game in five weeks.
And the injuries continue to mount in the secondary. Safety Julian Blackmon is out for the season, and he's the 20th Colts' player to hit IR since the start of training camp in late July. The Colts offensive line hasn't had it's expected starting five yet this season, and even though star guard Quenton Nelson could play this week, it sounds like RT Braden Smith won't.
If you're the Colts, do you rush anyone back from injury - this includes TY Hilton, who briefly played last week, then was hurt again - with a massive home game against the Titans next week? Indianapolis already lost to Tennessee once and can't drop another to them again if the Colts want to win the division and get to the playoffs.
With the season coming down to next week, I give a strong lean to the 49ers here, even though they have injury issues of their own off the bye week. Left tackle Trent Williams may not play, and DT Javon Kinlaw is also banged up.
Professionals seem to be on the Colts here, driving the line down from 4 to -3.5 in some places. Still, I'm not a believer in Indy, and SF's linebacking strength should shut down the Colts' formidable screen game, as Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are tied for 3rd in receptions on the team.
Give me the Niners.
PICK: 49ers (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5 at FOX Bet) at TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans hosted the Bills on Monday and were 6.5 or 7-point underdogs. Now Kansas City comes to town, and the Chiefs are only 5-point favorites? That's fishy.
The Titans' cluster of injuries in the secondary is bad news when you have a Chiefs team coming in that ranks 1st in the NFL in points per drive and 4th in passing offense per DVOA.
A couple of questions pop up when thinking about the Titans, most notably, on a short week, how will Julio Jones be able to return from a hamstring injury? And, after a 20-carry Monday Night Football performance, will NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry (51 more carries than #2, Joe Mixon!) be up for the challenge?
The good news for the Chiefs is their best defender, Chris Jones, has returned to practice after a 2-week absence, and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. is rounding into form after missing the first four games. And Juan Thornhill is replacing struggling Daniel Sorenson at safety. The Chiefs' defense can't get any worse, that's for sure.
The offense should roll in a great spot for Kansas City after the Titans won their Super Bowl Monday against the team everyone crowned champions, Buffalo.
PICK: KC (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points
CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW YORK GIANTS (Total 43 at FOX Bet)
I haven't played a lot of totals this year, but I'll take a bite of the under in a game between a pathetic offense (Giants) and a reeling one (Panthers).
If everyone were healthy, I'd enjoy watching Saquon Barkley vs. Christian McCaffrey. Instead, both are out, and the offenses have suffered greatly.
The Panthers only mustered 3.5 yards per play vs. the Eagles at home; they didn't have one drive over 40 yards against the Vikings until late in the 4th quarter.
On the other side, the Giants' best-skill position players are hurt, so the Panthers should control the line of scrimmage.
This one is probably 10-6 heading into the 4th quarter, and whichever QB turns the ball over less, should win.
PICK: Under 43 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet
Five-team, 8-point TEASER
Who is betting on Washington this week? The line has come down from 10 to 7.5, which is ideal for teasers. The Packers aren't losing this game - they've dismembered bad teams. And make no mistake about it, Washington is a bad team.
The Football Team is also badly injured. The right side of their offensive line, the team's top running back, and top two receivers are all out or dinged up. Even if half of them do play, do you trust Taylor Heinicke to get you the cover?
Washington had just 76 yards of total offense in the 2nd half vs. Kansas City's defense. I'll see your last-minute rally in Atlanta and raise you the beatdown in Buffalo.
The lone hope for Washington is the Packers resting their starters in the 4th quarter in anticipation of the big game against Arizona next week.
I love the Bucs this week in every possible way against the Bears. Rookie QB Justin Fields against defensive mastermind Todd Bowles? Good luck, kid.
Teams have abandoned the run against Tampa's defense, which has given up the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. If Fields has no run game, how does he move the ball?
The Bucs are susceptible in the secondary, as Jalen Hurts showed in garbage time last week. We can talk about home-field advantage being mostly gone, but the Bucs have pounded two bad teams at home (Atlanta, 48-25, Miami 45-17).
Think Tom Brady is taking his foot off the gas after last year's "4th down" loss in Chicago? No way. If you hate double-digit spreads - and you should! - tease Tom below a touchdown.
There's a massive divide here among professionals on this game, but it's a stay away for me. The only way I'm getting involved is by teasing the Ravens at home.
You can parse all the mildly impressive Bengals stats you want - close home losses to the Vikings and Packers are one thing; they were less impressive on the road in Chicago - but there's a lot of noise when two wins are against dregs of the league (Jaguars, Lions).
The public seems to be gravitating toward the Bengals, and you know how I feel about public dogs on the road. Also, John Harbaugh vs. Zac Taylor is a big mismatch.
I like the Bengals this season, but not in this spot.
Sean Payton off a bye, with an extra week to prepare for Geno Smith? That doesn't feel like a fair fight.
I know Seattle's 27-10 all-time on Monday Night Football, best in the NFL. I also know that since 2010, when Pete Carroll arrived, the Hawks are 11-2 in this spot. But many (all?) of those wins were with the Legion of Boom (gone) and Russell Wilson (hurt).
With that being said, if you've followed this space all season, you know how I feel about the Saints offense and Jameis Winston. Somehow, they've lucked their way into being the best red-zone team in the NFL (13 TDs in 14 possessions), and they rank No. 1 in red-zone defense. Those numbers will undoubtedly regress to the mean.
The Saints' defense will keep them in this low-scoring game, and the teaser gives you protection if the Seahawks manage to win by a field goal. No protection from a Jameis Winston pick-6 for the loss, though. He hasn't thrown one yet this year, but you know it's coming.
If you think five teams is too ambitious, feel free to leave this one off the card because you're not going through any key numbers. It is the double revenge game - Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff! - but when you toss out the narratives, you're taking a home team against a winless opponent that just got buried by 25+.
The Rams are the better side, they're 6-3 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean McVay, but it's not a long-term winning strategy to bet huge favorites. So tease the Rams and watch the defense that knows Jared Goff very well hound him all afternoon.
Packers +.5
Bucs -4.5
Ravens +1.5
Saints +3.5
Rams -7
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Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.