NFL odds Week 2: How to bet Falcons-Rams, pick

The Atlanta Falcons will travel west to play the defending champion Los Angeles Rams on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET.

The Falcons are looking for their first win after being outscored 17-3 in the fourth quarter en route to a one-point loss to the New Orleans Saints last week.

The Rams are looking for redemption after losing in the NFL's first game of the season last Thursday against the Buffalo Bills when Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Falcons-Rams game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (4:05 p.m., FOX)

Point spread: Rams -10.5 (Rams favored to win by more than 10.5 points, otherwise Falcons cover)
Moneyline: Rams -500 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12 total); Falcons +333 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $43.30 total)
Total scoring over/under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick by FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The defending Super Bowl champions had the fourth-best odds to repeat after Brady returned to the Bucs and the second-best odds to win the NFC.

And before last Thursday’s kickoff, they were favored by 13 points in this game in the summer markets.

When this line reopened following the Sunday games, it was at +12.5 for the Falcons. This line has taken steady Falcons money to drop it all the way down to and through the 10, down to +9.5.

And then it took Rams money to move back to where it currently sits at +10.5.

The Rams have minimal home-field advantage, and there does appear to be some anchoring here tied to last season.

The Rams ran a conservative attack in Week 1, passing the ball on just 58% of their early downs in the first half, which ranked No. 14 in the NFL. Last year, they were 61% which ranked sixth-highest.

In particular, on first downs in the first half, the Rams ran the ball on 62% of plays, which was the fifth-highest in the NFL. Last year, they passed at a 54% clip, which was the 11th-highest.

Last week against the Saints, the Falcons’ run defense ranked 16th in success rate allowed to running backs. Specifically, on early-down runs in the first three quarters, the Falcons ranked 15th in success rate allowed and 12th in EPA/att allowed.

Undoubtedly, the Rams are more talented, have more depth and are the better team.

And there’s no doubt an angle I discussed last week is relevant here. And that is this:

Since 2011, teams off of Thursday night football in Week 1 who have those three extra days of rest advantage are:

17-3 straight up (85%)
14-6 against the spread (70%)

These results are regardless of whether they win or lose on Thursday. Regardless of whether they are impressive or unimpressive.

Luster fades, and people forget how good a team looked if they won. And in the Rams’ case, if they looked bad, they have more time to work on what they need to improve.

But there is this angle that seemingly hurts the Rams:

Teams off a home loss in Week 1 who are home favorites in Week 2 are just 3-11 ATS since 2004 (21%), and only five of these 14 games have gone over (36%).

These teams do tend to win (9-5 SU) but expecting them to do so in a flashy manner to gain margin is less likely. They’re simply trying to lock in a win. And when they’re leading late, they don’t go for margin and just try to run out the clock.

As such, teams favored by over a touchdown are 4-0 SU but 0-4 ATS since 2004. And no team (not one) has been favored by more than 10 points as the Rams are here.

Adding one other angle that could scare any Rams backer: Teams off a home loss in Week 1 who are home favorites in Week 2 AND PLAY A TEAM ALSO OFF A WEEK 1 LOSS are 0-8 ATS since 2003.

At one point, before gaining access to play-by-play data, I was more of a trend bettor. That was over a decade ago. But there are specific trends here to support the fact that the Rams might be getting slightly overvalued in the betting marketplace right now with this large of a number.

I’d lean Falcons with the 10.5 points.

PICK: Atlanta Falcons (+10.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)

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