NFL odds Week 18: Bet on the Chargers, three-team teaser and more
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Congratulations, boys and girls, you made it to the end of the marathon, as NFL Week 18 is finally here!
After Sunday, it's all smooth sailing. You won't need to monitor daily injury reports or COVID-19 lists for all 32 teams. There will be no more overreacting to what you just saw, unhappy players or coaches on the hot seat.
The playoffs are beckoning, and since they were very good to us in this space last season, let's get this party started early!
Here are my best bets for the final week of the season, with odds via FOX Bet.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
This game features the biggest matchup of the weekend, and it's tough not to love the Chargers. I'm fading the narrative and scoffing at the "same old Chargers" who always lose the big games and choke when favored.
Yes, they crumbled against the lowly Texans two weeks ago, placing them in this must-win predicament. But the Chargers — as of this publishing — are in the COVID-19 clear, and they're as healthy as they have been in over a month, with the only issue being center Corey Linsley (questionable).
Los Angeles' offense is on a roll and should torch Las Vegas (380 yards of offense, 4-for-5 in the red zone in the earlier meeting), as the Chargers have scored 28 or more points in five straight games.
If you're just looking at last week, sure, the Raiders played arguably their best game of the season, winning straight up as a big underdog in Indy. But, if you dig into the metrics, you will see that the Raiders rank 25th in the NFL on third downs (second-worst among playoff teams) and 29th in red zone scoring (worst among playoff teams). Las Vegas is also 6-2 in one-score games, which means regression is on the way.
Over the Raiders' last eight games, they've topped 17 points just twice. Even with tight end Darren Waller possibly playing for the first time in over a month, Last Vegas just doesn't have the offense to keep up.
PICK: Chargers (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The final week is one of my favorite weeks of the season and not just because the playoffs are on the horizon. Everyone wants to bet on teams that need to win, because you know, motivation! All of that, of course, is baked into the point spread.
Betting favorites means sometimes grabbing inflated lines; this is highly significant in the season's final week. Case in point, Jacksonville just gave up 50 points to the Patriots and generally looked uninterested in playing football. Meaning, nobody is touching the Jaguars this week.
The Colts have been double-digit favorites four times this season. In those situations, they covered twice but didn't cover at home as 10.5-point favorites against Jacksonville in November.
There's only pressure on one team in this game. The Jaguars have covered just once over their last nine games, however, that cover was against the Colts.
Furthermore, Indianapolis hasn't had success in Jacksonville with their last win there coming in 2014. Only a couple of teams in the league should be laying this number, and Indianapolis, with its run-heavy attack, isn't one of them.
PICK: Jaguars (+16.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 16.5 points (or win outright)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield this weekend? It's not happening. Instead, it'll be Brandon Allen vs. Case Keenum in a game that means nothing for the Browns.
After a rousing home win that gave Cincinnati its first division title since 2015, the Bengals are resting Burrow, among others, while running back Joe Mixon is on the COVID-19 list.
Zac Taylor's Bengals will be hosting a playoff game, most likely against the Patriots. This week, the sole objective is to get out of this game with no injuries.
Don't be surprised if former Michigan running back Chris Evans gets 20 carries for Cincy, as the weather will be a major factor (rain, wind, 30 degrees all weekend).
The Browns are on a short week, and it's going to be difficult for an eliminated team to muster the energy for another rivalry game. First to 17 wins?
PICK: Under 38 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet
Three-team, 7.5-point Teaser
Washington Football Team teased from -6.5 to +1
This line might touch Washington by a touchdown as we approach kickoff because nobody's running to the window to back Jake Fromm starting his first NFL game.
The Giants have been arguably the league's worst team for about a month. It appears everyone has quit on coach Joe Judge.
Washington isn't in the business of laying a touchdown, or close to it, to anyone, so teasing this spread and needing Ron Rivera's team to deliver a win at home is a reasonable ask.
Los Angeles Rams teased from -4.5 to +3
I just can't quit the Rams. I grabbed them at +900 to win the Super Bowl this week, adding to a preseason position on the Matthew Stafford-led Rams.
Stafford has been putrid down the stretch, throwing 11 interceptions in the last eight games after just four in the first half of the season. And, there's some concern that Sean McVay can't beat Kyle Shanahan (0-5 in their last five meetings), as San Francisco dominates the trenches and runs all over the Rams, who are perceived as soft.
But, metrics tell another story, as the Rams come in second in net yards per play, only behind the Bills.
Minnesota Vikings teased from -5.5 to +1.5
Is Kirk Cousins in prime time? Nope, this is a 1 pm kickoff. We've seen quarterbacks return from COVID-19 and struggle (see Carson Wentz last week), so perhaps Cousins comes out and looks atrocious to end what has been a bad year for the Vikings.
Do they play hard for Mike Zimmer in what could be his final game in Minnesota? I believe so.
Yes, the Bears crushed the Giants, but are we supposed to be impressed with 249 yards of total offense and 3.8 yards per play? And Justin Fields just hit the COVID-19 list, so he won't start. If it's Andy Dalton at QB again, I'll feel great about this teaser leg.
JMAC's Teaser
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars, including a $10,000 prize on the Big Noon Kickoff game of the week, the weekly College Football Saturday contest and, of course, the Sunday NFL Challenge. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!