NFL odds Week 17: Betting edges on Panthers-Bucs, Browns-Commanders, more

This week's NFL slate has some great matchups in store, including the Panthers-Buccaneers on FOX and the FOX Sports App. 

I ran my models to give you my favorite betting edges and predictions for Week 17 of the season. My goal for this weekly column is to always provide you with nuggets you didn’t know before reading this piece.

As the playoff picture starts to come into focus, let's take look at my favorite edges of the week (odds courtesy of FOX Bet).

Panthers at Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Tampa Bay’s run defense has fallen off substantially over the last month.

The last three weeks, the Bucs rank in the bottom 10 in multiple RB rushing metrics. They’ve allowed the ninth-most EPA/rush to RBs on early downs and the fifth-most yards before contact on these runs.

This is something the Panthers will look to take advantage of. This offense ranks top-five in EPA/play and yards before contact per rush on RB-runs since Week 11.  

And this is during a time they’ve played multiple solid run defenses, including the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos.  

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers secondary will be hurting. They are expected to be without Jaycee Horn following surgery Tuesday on a broken wrist. Horn was the team’s best CB and played everywhere. He primarily played out wide, but played nearly equal amounts of right CB (279 snaps) as left CB (263 snaps) and played some in the slot and in the box as well.

He missed Week 7 with an injury. In his place, CB Donte Jackson stepped up. On the season, Jackson primarily played right CB. In Week 7, when these two teams met, Jackson played 54 of 63 snaps aligned as right CB. 

Jackson stepped up in a big way in that game, recording a game-high 10 tackles vs. Tom Brady’s Bucs.  

But Jackson suffered a torn Achilles in Week 10.

Now the Panthers are down their top-two starting CBs. They just signed 35-year old Josh Norman, who will be on a pitch count. In for the Panthers will be C.J. Henderson and Keith Taylor, and both are liabilities.

Ironically, however, I believe it might be the Panthers offense which drives some of the production in this game.  

Carolina ranks No. 1 in EPA/dropback on early-down passes since Sam Darnold took over in Week 12, and they rank No. 2 in EPA/rush.  

Darnold himself ranks No. 1 in the NFL in YPA with 8.6. 

And this is a bad matchup for the Bucs based on the way the Panthers like to play offense.

Sixteen percent of Darnold’s attempts have traveled 20-plus yards, which is fifth highest in the NFL. They don’t throw underneath often, which is where the Bucs defense has ranked top-10 on the season (passes thrown within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage).

On early down passes in the first three quarters, Tampa Bay’s defense ranks second worst vs. passes thrown 20-plus yards on early downs. These passes record +1.09 EPA/att and QBs have thrown five TDs to zero INTs on them.

Under Steve Wilks, who took control in Carolina on a short week in Week 6, the Panthers have scored 21-plus points in seven of their last nine games and have gone over the total in five of their last eight, including three straight.  

Tampa Bay has played some of the most anemic offenses since Week 8:

• Trace McSorley (third string)
• Brock Purdy (third string)
• Andy Dalton
• Matthew Stafford
• Jacoby Brissett
• Geno Smith
• Lamar Jackson
• Joe Burrow

Burrow torched this defense with 4:1 TD:INT. Lamar Jackson was 2:0 TD:INT, as was Brock Purdy and Geno Smith. None of these QBs lit it up from a total passing volume perspective.

Down the home stretch of the season, betting the over on low totaled games has been profitable so long as the game is free of extreme rain or cold. Games played in above-freezing temps in the last month with a total of 40 or lower have gone over in six of seven games.  

Vikings at Green Bay Packers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

From Week 9 to Week 15, the Vikings played the NFL’s No. 1-toughest schedule of defenses. They had an easy matchup last week vs. a bad Giants defense, but it just so happens the Giants defense plays the style that has given Kirk Cousins trouble this year.

The Giants play both man and blitz at the highest rate in the NFL.  

Behind those blitzes, which come on 45% of all QB dropbacks, the Giants play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.

The Packers blitz at the No. 2-highest rate in the NFL, right behind the Giants.

But behind those blitzes, the Packers play zone defense 62% of the time, the No. 6-highest rate in the NFL. And the past month, they’re playing zone behind their blitzes at a 79% rate, the No. 3-highest rate in the NFL.

Kirk Cousins has the No. 2-largest split in the NFL when blitzed based upon man vs. zone coverage.

• Blitzed with man: -0.16 EPA/att, 28% success, 5.0 YPA, 40% comp
• Blitzed with zone: +0.09 EPA/att, 54% success, 7.0 YPA, 77% comp

Only the Jets QBs have larger splits.

Where do these Cousins’ splits rank? Out of 42 QBs with 100-plus attempts on the season:

• Blitzed with man, Cousins is No. 39 in comp % and No. 38 in success rate
• Blitzed with zone, Cousins is No. 9 in comp % and No. 8 in success rate

Cousins moves from a bottom-three QB to a top-10 QB depending on whether he faces man or zone behind the blitzes.

And with the Packers playing zone at the No. 3-highest rate in the NFL over the past month (No. 6 all season), it falls into a great category for Cousins to thrive in.

The Vikings last four opponents:

• Giants
• Colts
• Lions
• Jets

Since Week 10, these teams rank No. 1, No. 2, No. 10 and No. 11 in man coverage rate.  

Now Cousins gets a zone team that blitzes but plays zone, which he should have success against.

Additionally, since Week 10, when the Packers blitz, they actually only record pressure at a 32% rate, which ranks No. 31 in the NFL.

I know the talk is the Packers have turned the corner and are about to go on a run.

What I’ve seen is the Packers beat the No. 29 Bears and No. 27 Rams and then get fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa was concussed or they likely don’t beat the Dolphins (Miami was up 20-10 and driving at the time he was concussed).

Aside from Tua’s concussion last week, I’m looking at a Packers team that has defeated two teams all year by over three points:

• 3-12 Bears (27-10 and 28-19)
• 5-10 Rams (24-12)

The Packers' other wins were all by three points or fewer.

Browns at Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Prior to playing the 49ers, the Commanders played three games vs. bottom-five defenses. And they scored just 20, 19 and 12 points offensively vs. the Giants twice and the Falcons.  

The Commanders then went to San Francisco and scored 20 points in an eventual blowout vs. the 49ers.

Washington should have success running the ball vs. the terrible Browns run defense, but we’ve seen that simply facing bad run defenses does not equate to points for Washington.

I would presume that Washington turns more to the pass vs. the Browns, but their early-down play calling has been extremely conservative.  

Last week, on first-half early downs, Washington ran the ball at an 82% rate. That was more run-heavy than the Saints or the Browns, who played in 40 mph gusts in that blizzard in Cleveland.

Runs gained 2.4 YPC, -0.31 EPA/play and 17% success. Yet Washington ran it 22 times.

Meanwhile, passes gained 10.3 YPA, +0.77 EPA/play and 60% success. But because Washington ran the ball 82% of the time, they only had five pass attempts on these early-down plays.

This should be a good spot to predict a productive day from Brian Robinson, with Antonio Gibson out and the Browns allowing 5.3 YPC to RBs (No. 30) and the team being the No. 1-most run-heavy team in the NFL in neutral situations since Week 3.

The matchup doesn’t bode well for the Browns. The road map to beating the Commanders is to bypass the run and pass the ball.

Washington’s run defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL this year, and that is despite facing the NFL’s No. 1 schedule of run offenses. We’ve seen Nick Chubb’s rate of explosive runs drop by nearly 50% since his Week 9 bye.

If Cleveland moves away from the run due to the bad matchup, that just means more Deshaun Watson, which hasn’t been pretty, although this is the best matchup he’s faced and the weather should be better than the last few Browns games.

And we already discussed how Washington likes to run the ball and the Browns cannot stop the run.

If Washington cannot find a way to win this great matchup at home vs. a Browns team that couldn’t beat a bad dome team playing in a blizzard in Cleveland last week, the Commanders don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

Jaguars at Texans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Texans are the worst team in the NFL. And that’s not just a 2022 thing, either. The Texans have been the worst team in the NFL since losing Deshaun Watson.  

You wouldn’t know that when they played the Jaguars, however.

The Texans are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS since 2018 vs. the Jaguars. The Urban Meyer-led Jaguars couldn’t beat the terrible Texans in 2021, getting blown out in both games, 37-21 and then 30-16.

But the Doug Pederson-led Jaguars lost 13-6 vs. the Texans earlier this season as well.

It will be interesting to see what approach the Jaguars take in this game. Pederson said they don’t plan on resting players. But the game that will determine the AFC South is next week.  

Jacksonville could lose this game to the Texans. So long as they beat the Titans next week, they win the AFC South and make the playoffs.

On the flip side, if the Jaguars beat the Texans but lose next week to the Titans, the Jaguars are nearly assured of missing the playoffs. Their only outside shot is to have the Dolphins lose their last two games, the Patriots lose to the Bills in Week 18, the Jets lose to the Seahawks this week and the Steelers lose to the Browns in Week 18. In other words, they are 91% likely to miss the playoffs if they lose to the Titans in Week 18.

The Texans have been feisty the past month, nearly beating the Cowboys and Chiefs before knocking off the Malik Willis-led Titans.  

It is strongly in the Texans' best interest to lose this game in order to secure the No. 1 overall draft pick. But that does not appear to be the goal of Lovie Smith’s bunch.

A key to the Texans success has been on the defensive side, where they rank No. 1 in the NFL in pressure rate since Week 6 (42.1%) and eighth in sack rate (8.1%) over that span.

Top stories from FOX Sports:

• NFL Power Rankings: Packers, Dolphins move up as playoffs loom
• Tua Tagovailoa's impossible situation; Mike White's audition: AFC East notes
• Is Dak Prescott's interception spike a cause for concern?
• 2022-23 NFL playoff picture: Which teams are in, who's still in the hunt
• Why MLB teams are signing stars to deals of over 10 years again
• MLB free agency tracker: Signings, best players available
• NBA Stock Watch: Jayson Tatum strengthens MVP case; Aaron Gordon All-Star leap?
• College football transfer portal tracker: Card to Purdue, Uiagalalei to Oregon State
• Lionel Messi cements GOAT status with a little help from his friends
• 2022-23 College football bowl projections, odds for every postseason game

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!