NFL odds Week 16: Seahawks will cover against Chiefs, other best bets

Week 16 of the NFL season is a unique one. 

Weather will play a factor in a handful of these games, there are some notable quarterback injuries and a few award races could be finalized after the weekend. 

And as always, I've got some wagers for you that I hope will put some cash in our pockets by the end of the weekend (odds via FOX Bet).

Seahawks at Chiefs (1 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

I feel confident the Chiefs will cover any game where they are a short favorite of three points or fewer. And I certainly expect them to cover in those rare instances when they're underdogs. However, if the Chiefs are favored by more than a touchdown, take the other side. 

Kansas City failed to cover nine points against the Broncos two weekends ago, getting out to a 27-0 lead before holding on to win by six. Last weekend, the Chiefs were 14.5-point favorites at Houston, and it took overtime for them to escape with a victory. A month ago, the Rams went to Arrowhead, catching anywhere from 15 to 16.5 points without Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. The Chiefs won, but it was an ugly 26-10.

I do not know why the Chiefs play this way against inferior opponents, but it has been a trend for years. Turnovers, lackadaisical game plans, poor red zone offense and lack of defense make these games closer than they should be. 

Seattle is coming to town, and the Seahawks need a win to keep themselves afloat in the NFC playoff race. And while Seattle hasn’t played well on offense in the last month, the Hawks can still move the ball on the Chiefs defense. KC's defense allows everyone to move the ball. That unit is ranked 24th in defensive DVOA. Even if the Chiefs do their thing and post a score in the low 30s, their defense will allow points to a desperate Seattle Seahawks squad. 

I will take the Seahawks to cover.

PICK: Seahawks (+9.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright)

Commanders at 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

I’m throwing out all of my gambling principles in this game. I’m taking the 7.5-point home team favorite whose head coach has routinely struggled in this spot. Give me the super-hot Niners against the Commanders — a squad coming off a national TV loss. Sure, the line is inflated. I do not care. San Francisco will win big.

The Commanders started slow. They had a single win through five weeks, then struggled to beat the Bears in Week 6. Carson Wentz was benched. Taylor Heinicke took over the offense and sparked the entire team. Then, Washington won six of their next seven, including handing the Eagles their only loss of the season. The other five wins were close. The Commanders beat the Packers by two, the Colts by one and the Falcons by six. Then came the games against the Giants that were sandwiched with a bye week. Against the Giants, Washington posted one tie and one outright loss, and now the squad is looking at not making the playoffs. 

Washington has struggled to beat better teams because of Heinicke's limitations. He’s a fun player to root for, but ultimately, he's not good. The Commanders are scoring only 16 points a game since he took over, and now they head to San Francisco.

The Niners defense is the best in the NFL. They do not allow points, their defensive line is fierce, the linebackers are fast, and the secondary is quick. Teams do not score against them, and I’m not sure what would propel the Commanders to score in this game.

The 49ers offense continues to roll with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy running the show. Kyle Shanahan isn’t asking Purdy to do much, relying on the run game, offensive line and screen game. However, when Purdy is tasked with throwing it, he appears more competent than most expected.  The Niners are a real offense with Purdy. And while the Commanders defense is excellent, this is a game where the Niners can wear them down. 

Washington's defense will be on the field for a long game. San Francisco will score late to cover this game and push the lead to double digits by the final whistle. 

PICK: 49ers (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points

Buccaneers at Cardinals (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Tampa Bay had its best offensive output on Sunday against the Bengals since a Week 4 loss to the Chiefs. The Bucs scored 17 first-half points, then allowed 34-straight points to the Bengals. They eventually added a late touchdown to end the game with 23 points. It appears the Bucs were "back" in the first half Sunday, but then they went right back to the style of play that has been characteristic of them this season. Turnovers, drops, miscommunications and poor play calling. That is their offense this year. They don't score, and they make too many mistakes. 

They struggle regardless of what defense they're facing, and the defense they face this week at Arizona is not particularly good. The Cardinals are ranked 27th in defensive DVOA, but they do rush the passer with J.J. Watt, and the Bucs are extremely injured on the offensive line.

The Cardinals offense is without quarterback Kyler Murray, and we have seen Colt McCoy have some success moving the ball. However, that won't happen against this Bucs defense. Tampa Bay's defense ranks ninth in DVOA and this team knows they need to be stout for any chance at a win. 

I would not expect the Cardinals to score much here. I’ll take the Under.

PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Saints at Browns (1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

This is the most extreme weather game you can have. Temperatures will be near zero most of the game, and the wind will be blowing up to 25 miles per hour. These are awful conditions for offensive football, so you should bet this game accordingly.

The point total is incredibly low. It's sitting around 32 — give or take a half point here or there. But even with this low number, I’m playing the Under. 

In the last 20 years, we’ve seen 52 games where the wind has been 20 mph winds or stronger. Of those, five of the eight were played in Cleveland. The final scores of those five games were 8-0, 23-17, 21-0, 13-6, 14-0. Saints-Browns is going to be one of those contests.

The Under hits in these matchups because it's impossible to pass, so it becomes a run-first affair for both offenses. Well, defenses know this and are prepared to stop the run. The game clock has fewer opportunities to stop, so it runs and runs. Also, adding points through the kicking game won’t be a big part of these teams' scoring. So you need multiple touchdowns to hit the Over.

Remember, it's the wind — not the cold, wet conditions — that creates issues for the passing game. And with gusts forecasted to reach 40 mph, neither quarterback will be able to move the ball down field with any regularity. 

Oddsmakers have priced this in, so passing totals are also incredibly low. Saints quarterback Andy Dalton’s number is 151.5, and the Browns Deshaun Watson is at 150.5. 

The pigskin will not be flying too much this weekend in Cleveland. Take the Under.

PICK: Under 32.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Broncos at Rams (4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Baker Mayfield has played two games for the Rams. For all but five minutes of those two games, he’s looked just average at best. Now Mayfield is playing the best passing defense in the NFL and the Broncos know they can only win with their defense right now. 

Mayfield threw for less than 150 yards against the Raiders before those final two drives where he played his best ball of the season. Then last weekend he threw for 111 yards against the Packers. 

The Broncos have only allowed over 198 yards just seven times this season, and most of those quarterbacks are at the top of the league. Baker Mayfield is not. Take his Under passing yards. 

PICK: Baker Mayfield Under 184.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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