NFL odds Week 16: How bettors are playing Packers-Dolphins; Huge bet on 49ers

It’s still a couple of days out, but no game on the NFL Week 16 odds board is getting as much attention as the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys. And not just because it’s America’s Game of the Week on FOX and the FOX Sports App, with a 4:25 p.m. ET Christmas Eve kickoff.

The betting chatter started Monday afternoon when murmurs of Jalen Hurts possibly not playing this week were followed up by confirmation that the Eagles QB and MVP candidate had a sprained shoulder. At that point, Hurts was considered uncertain to start Saturday, and the point spread shot up.

Now, two days ahead of kickoff, it looks like backup Gardner Minshew will get the start.

Let's jump into more on that game and other NFL Week 16 betting nuggets.

‘Something Was Up’

In the hour or so before the Hurts news went public Monday, oddsmakers had an indication that someone out there in the sports betting universe had information.

"We saw a couple of key bets come in on Dallas at -2 and -2.5, which gave us a bit of a clue that something was up," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said, noting sharp Cowboys action at both -2 and -2.5. 

"When the news came down that Jalen Hurts was likely to miss the game, the market avalanched toward the Cowboys and the Under. We went as high as -6.5 before we found a bet back on the Eagles."

And then came comments/reports Tuesday and Wednesday that made it sound as if Hurts just might be under center Saturday.

"In typical NFL fashion, news came out that Hurts is not completely ruled out yet, causing a small move back on the Eagles," Manica said. "We took more action on the move up on the Cowboys than we did going back down on the Eagles. We got as low as -4.5."

That said, with Philly pretty much a mortal lock to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Manica doesn't see the Eagles risking it with Hurts. The Eagles are 13-1 straight up (SU) and a more modest 8-6 against the spread (ATS).

"I assume having a lot to lose and little to gain by playing Hurts in this contest will result in Minshew starting," Manica said. 

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni confirmed Manica's thoughts on Thursday morning, saying he doesn't expect Jalen Hurts to start against the Cowboys this weekend.

WynnBet saw sharp play on Philly +6. So there are professional opinions/dollars on both sides of this big NFC East clash.

"The Eagles at +6 without Hurts looks like the main resistance point. The book will need the Eagles on Saturday afternoon," per Manica.

Worth Backing Minshew Mania?

Meanwhile, PlayUp USA head of wagering Rex Beyers isn’t altogether sold on the Cowboys, especially as favorites of 5 points or more. His sportsbook took a couple of key hits Monday on Dallas — both from the same customer — before any oddsmakers were aware of Hurts’ status.

"We got bet pretty good at Cowboys -1.5, and he laid Cowboys moneyline -120," Beyers said.

Once those bets hit, followed by the Hurts news, of course the line sprang up, as it did elsewhere. But Beyers believes Minshew is good enough to keep this game close, provided the Eagles actually go full bore Saturday.

"I think Minshew is between the No. 23 and No. 26 quarterback in the whole league, and as a backup, he’s probably No. 3 or No. 4. He could probably start for seven or eight teams," Beyers said. "But what I believe Philly will do is rest the whole team. Then they beat the Saints in Week 17 to clinch the No. 1 seed and rest everybody in Week 18."

A key component of Beyers’ Weeks 16, 17, 18 theory is that Philly holds New Orleans’ first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. So the Eagles absolutely want to win that Saints game to potentially improve that draft position.

Beyers hopes the Eagles opt to get after it against the Cowboys.

"At this point, we’re gonna need the Eagles, and I have no problem with that," he said.

Pack Not Quite Dead Yet

Just when you thought Aaron Rodgers & Co. could forget about making playoff plans, well, they find a way back into the postseason picture. Which is honestly hard to believe, considering all the Green Bay Packers did was win two games in a row, which still leaves them two games under .500 with three games to play.

The Packers (6-8 SU and ATS) face a formidable foe if they want to keep hope alive, as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

"This game got interesting for the Packers. The NFC is a complete dice throw for the final playoff spot," WynnBet’s Manica said. "Green Bay is on the outside looking in right now, but a couple more wins could make the final game of the season meaningful if the right teams cooperate in front of them."

Schedule makers did the Dolphins no favors over the past three weeks with road games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills. Miami dropped all three games, but the final contest last week at Buffalo was riveting. The Dolphins certainly showed they’re capable of hanging with anybody in a 32-29 loss to the Bills.

"The Dolphins return home after a hard-fought loss against their division rival and current AFC top seed Buffalo. The Dolphins can take a major step forward in the playoff race with a win here," Manica said.

But early bettors seem to think Green Bay is up to the challenge — or at least can cover the spread —  against a Miami squad desperate to get back on track.

"The two significant wagers we took were on the Packers at +5.5 and again at +4.5. The ticket count is also heavily in favor of the Packers. The interest in the Dolphins has been minimal to this point," Manica said Wednesday night. "This contest looks like it will be contested closely, given the magnitude of playoff implications, a situation where points are usually valuable.

"A respectable establishment has already made the move to -3.5. We will need the Dolphins on Sunday in a big way if this continues."

WynnBet opened Miami at -4.5 Sunday evening and pushed the Dolphins out to -6 by Monday afternoon. But then that Packers money started showing, driving the line down to Miami -4 by late Tuesday afternoon.

The Sharp Side

It’s a slow week for one bettor I check in with regularly. He literally hasn’t fired on any game on the NFL Week 16 odds board. He’s waiting on more news, be it injuries or perhaps more so weather, which is playing a big role this week.

There’s only one game he’s even got a lean toward, though he hasn’t bet it yet. And it’s Packers-Dolphins.

"I lean toward Green Bay currently," he said. "The wide receiver corps has become healthy and found its stride."

Hot and Cold

There’s arguably no hotter team in the NFL than the Cincinnati Bengals (10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS). Cincy is on a six-game SU win streak and has been money in the bank for bettors, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games.

On the flip side, the New England Patriots (7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) enter Saturday’s home game on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide. And oh, by the way, the Pats just lost a game in one of the most unimaginable ways ever, with their version of pitchy-pitchy-woo-woo going horribly awry in Week 15 at the Las Vegas Raiders.

"The early-week ticket count favors the Bengals," WynnBet’s Manica said. "The public looks at this game seeing one team ascending in the AFC standings and one which gravely damaged its playoff hopes with one of the most ridiculous plays in the history of football. It would seem to be easy money and bet the Bengals.

"The sharps beg to differ. We took two significant wagers on the Patriots at +3.5 and +3.5 (-120), as well as sizable moneyline wagers when we were not the best price. This generally signifies strength in the opinion. At this rate, we will certainly be rooting for the Bengals on Saturday, as the sharps have weighed in heavily on the home ‘dog early in the week."

Back To School

It’s not a bowl game that leaps off the schedule, but PlayUp’s Beyers noted Friday night’s Gasparilla Bowl is getting some attention. And his sportsbook has a position.

Wake Forest (7-5 SU and ATS) faces Missouri (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) in a 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

"We got sharp money on Missouri right away back on Dec. 8. One of the first bets was on Missouri +1.5," Beyers said, before jumping ahead to action that landed Wednesday. "Today, the sharpest of the sharp bet Wake Forest."

Wake is currently -2.5, and Baker wants to be aligned with the short favorite Demon Deacons.

"I like Wake Forest myself," he said. "We’re almost even to the game right now. I’d prefer to need Wake Forest, so I’d like my next bet to be on Missouri."

The Weather Outside is Frightful

Across a substantial chunk of the U.S., it’s going to be miserable this weekend, impacting a handful of NFL games.

"Weather is gonna be a fascinating thing for a lot of these games. You can hardly believe some of this stuff," PlayUp’s Beyers said, pointing to the Jaguars-Jets Thursday night game and Titans-Texans Saturday, among others. It could be around 20 degrees in Nashville, which is crazy.

But the Saints-Browns game in Cleveland particularly stood out. Saturday’s high is 14 degrees, with snow showers and strong winds.

"The Cleveland game is probably the worst of them all," Beyers said. "A total that’s below 33, it’s hard to fathom a total that low. It doesn’t take much to get to 33-34 points."

Beyers then quickly rattled off a few ways it often does: 17-16, 21-13, 20-13, 20-14 and so on. PlayUp opened the total at 34 and was as low as 31. Late Wednesday night, the total was 32.5 (Over -111).

"It’s hard to imagine any value betting the Under on any NFL game where the total is less than 33. It’s such a low number. So many things have to happen to keep a total that low," Beyers said. "That being said, we’ve got good two-way money. We’ve got sharp play on the Over and sharp play on the Under, as well. The money I respect more is on the Over."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There’s not much in the way of reported big bets as Christmas weekend approaches on either NFL Week 16 odds or college football bowl odds. But Caesars Sports did net one hefty Super Bowl futures bet: $50,000 on the 49ers +650.

If the 49ers (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) – who now have third-string QB Brock Purdy under center — can claim the Lombardi Trophy, the bettor would profit $325,000.

Not bad ROI for a couple of months’ wait, if it actually happens. As always, be mindful of how you wager. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Have a Merry NFL Christmas weekend!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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