NFL odds Week 14: Bucs over Bills is the bet you need to make (and more)
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Week 14 of the NFL season is already here! There are some great matchups on the slate, so let's jump into the games.
Here are my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX)
The best spot to wager on the Steelers is when no one believes in them and they are an underdog. Case in point, last weekend. And, as usual, the Steelers won as a dog, moving Tomlin's record as a home dog to 14-3-2.
That success rate as a home underdog also carries over to road games, as Pittsburgh is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) as a road dog this season and 11-4 over their last 15.
But numbers alone aren't why I wager on games, so let's dive into the matchups. Pittsburgh has a decisive advantage in the trenches in this game which is crucial to me. Pro Football Focus has the Pittsburgh pass rush graded as the fifth-best in the NFL while Minnesota's pass blocking is ranked 29th.
Diving deeper into the numbers shows the Vikings' pass protection struggles happen upfront and with their running backs and tight ends. That isn't ideal when you're playing against T.J. Watt and the Steelers pressure packages.
The Vikings also appear to be without their left tackle again this week, so that is another huge concern. Also, QB Kirk Cousins will be without Adam Thielen, limiting his ability to push the ball down the field.
On the flip side, the Vikings' defense ranks 25th in pressure rate and 29th against the run. Why is that important? The Steelers have major issues moving the ball with their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who looks older by the week. Big Ben is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when facing pressure, leading the NFL in turnover-worthy throws under pressure. But, when not under pressure, Ben is serviceable and can guide an offense down the field.
I do not believe the Vikings can generate enough pressure against this Steelers offensive line to make Ben uncomfortable. I like the Steelers to cover the 3.5-points.
PICK: Steelers (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
We get a huge divisional matchup with the Cowboys heading to Washington to face the resurgent Football Team.
While Washington getting four points looks juicy, Dak Prescott has been dominant against the spread in the division, going 19-8 ATS in this situation over his career. So, I'm taking another angle here, and the under is where I'm putting my money.
Washington has won four straight, hitting the under in three of those four, while the Cowboys have gone under in five of their last six games.
The Football Team's defense started the season poorly, allowing 28 points per game through the first nine weeks. They allowed nearly 300 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing a game in that span. But, things have been different since Week 10, as they're only giving up 17 points and less than 300 total yards to opposing offenses.
Ron Rivera has done this throughout his career. His teams play better in the back half of the season, and the WFT will need it this weekend against the Cowboys' high-powered offense.
On the other side of the ball, Washington's offense has been better lately with Taylor Heinicke. The signal-caller is third in completion percentage and passer rating over the last four weeks. However, Washington has him throwing less and using running back Antonio Gibson, who is second in the NFL in carries since Week 10.
WFT is playing defense, using the run game and limiting the game for Heinicke. That is exactly how you cash an under ticket, so that's my play here.
PICK: Under 48 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Bills and Bucs are two teams going in separate directions. The Bucs, just like last season, are ascending in the home stretch. They've won and covered three straight games. On top of that, Tampa Bay has covered all but one game at home this season. Now the struggling Bills come to town.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bills have the first-ranked defense, but that number is skewed. The defense has played well against bum quarterbacks: Taysom Hill, Mike White, Tua Tagovailoa before heating up, and Davis Mills.
The only decent offense they've shut down this season is Kansas City's, and that was before the Chiefs started to fix their issues.
The Bills have lost when they've played anyone who can punch back. Tennessee, Indianapolis and New England all come to mind.
The Bucs' most significant advantage in this game is in the trenches, as they are better on the offensive and defensive lines.
The Bucs offensive line ranks first in the NFL, allowing the least pressure, while the Bills defense has a middle-of-the-pack pass rush. The Bucs are also first in the NFL at adjusted line yards while the Bills defense is once again in the middle of the pack at defending the run.
With Vita Vea back in the lineup for the Bucs, their pass rush and the run defense has seen an uptick. Frankly speaking, Buffalo does not have the line to stop Tampa Bay.
Lastly, Josh Allen just hasn't been the same player as he was last season. The Bucs are the right play here.
PICK: Buccaneers (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
Two-team, 6.5-point Teaser at FOX Bet:
I do not think Seattle is "back" after their win against San Francisco at home last weekend, but I know that Houston is miserable and not close to winning a game.
Any player on the Texans worth their weight is getting released or not playing. And Tyrod Taylor is out of the lineup, which means Davis Mills is back as the quarterback.
The Texans are 0-6 during Mills' starts, losing every game by double-digits except one. And with this teaser number, I just need Seattle to win by more than a point.
As for Bears-Packers, I have some juicy Packers nuggets you will like.
Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is 5-0 against the spread and straight-up against the Bears. QB Aaron Rodgers covers 65% of his home games, and he's 24-12 ATS in the division, 11-5-1 off a bye and 5-0 ATS in his division off a bye. If that's not enough, the Packers are getting healthier.
As for metrics, the Packers rank 10th in overall team efficiency, while the Bears are 26th.
The Bears are one terrible loss away from their coach getting fired, so I'll take the Packers under a touchdown in this teaser.
Geoff's Teaser:
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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