NFL odds Week 14: Why the Cowboys will cover (and more best bets)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Let’s call NFL Week 14 "Rematch Weekend."
There are five divisional rematches this weekend, and four of them involve teams in first place (Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, Cardinals). And wouldn't you know it? The Packers remain the best team in the NFL against the spread (10-2), with Arizona and Dallas (which takes on a divisional foe of its own) one game back of them.
This is also the last week for teams on a bye, so there’s no opportunity to back the Patriots again, which is a shame. They’ve been an ATM this season for gamblers, covering seven games in a row. But there are still plenty of great opportunities on the board.
Let get to the NFL odds for Week 14 and our best bets (with all odds via FOX Bet).
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Prior to last week’s letdown against the Seahawks, the 49ers were starting to percolate, with three straight wins and covering in four of five games.
And then they opened as underdogs against the Bengals (+2.5).
The line movement here was interesting. Despite no information being released on the finger injury to Joe Burrow, money came pouring in on the 49ers. Did someone know something? Early-week money pushed the 49ers up to -1.5. Burrow was limited in practice Thursday, while Joe Mixon has yet to practice this week (illness).
Burrow already leads the NFL with 14 interceptions, and it didn’t help he was down two offensive linemen against the Chargers and was sacked six times. Both have been limited at practice this week, but they’ll almost certainly be without leading tackler Logan Wilson (shoulder), which could mean another George Kittle game nine catches for 181 yards and two TDs last week).
PICK: 49ers (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The market seems to be undervaluing Dallas, which hasn’t been fully healthy all season. Washington has thrived during its four-game win streak, sure, especially Taylor Heinicke (7 TDs, 2 INTs). But after being helped by early Tom Brady interceptions, they followed up with Cam Newton in his first start this season, then the struggling Seahawks, who offensively were a disaster, and the Raiders, who were playing without their top pass-catcher, Darren Waller.
Now comes the Dallas juggernaut. The Cowboys' offense will have Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper on the outside, and CeeDee Lamb can move back to the slot. Washington has given up a league-high 8 TDs to slot receivers.
Dallas is just the superior team, ranking 4th in overall DVOA; Washington is 21st.
PICK: Cowboys (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
After the Bills crushed me with an anemic MNF performance in a loss to New England, I’m going back to the well. It's a dangerous decision, but if you can get the hook with Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs, you have to take it.
Remember the NFL gambling mantra: No team is as good or as bad as they were last week. And NFL teams that didn’t cover the week prior, facing teams that did cover, are hitting at 71 percent this season. It’s just one data point, but speaks to the strength of the Bills.
The loss of CB Tre’Davious White will certainly be felt against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the Bills should be able to keep up offensively against a beat-up Bucs secondary. Teams that have gone pass-first have been able to hang with Tampa; Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston/Trevor Siemian and even Carson Wentz have had lots of success.
Weather won’t be a problem for Buffalo, and the defense will have a lot to prove after getting run over last week.
PICK: Bills (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Tennessee Titans teased from -9 to -2
Denver Broncos teased from -10 to -3
Kansas City Chiefs teased from -3 to +4
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Titans are off the bye week and getting Julio Jones back, although AJ Brown is still on IR as Tennessee tries to cling to the AFC South lead with Indy breathing down their necks.
This is mostly a play against Jacksonville, which has lost four straight since that rousing home win over the Bills. The offense has been ineffectual, and now Trevor Lawrence is complaining about the coaching staff benching his only weapon, James Robinson.
Yet I have a feeling this will be close, hence the teaser through the key numbers of 7 and 3.
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Going back to the "didn’t cover last week versus did cover" data point, the Broncos could not cash in Kansas City in Week 13 despite having ample second-half opportunities. On the flip side, the Lions won the Super Bowl, er, their first game of the season, at home in thrilling fashion. Then the team partied like rock stars and a dozen stars were ill and missed several practices this week.
The number subsequently ballooned up to double digits, which is far too much for this limited Denver offense to be laying against anyone. So teasing it down to a field goal bakes in some protection, even though we know Jared Goff is going to struggle outdoors in the cold.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Chiefs aren’t officially "back," but they might hang another 41 on the Raiders if Gus Bradley comes out and doesn’t play the two-high safety look that has stymied this KC offense in 2021.
During Kansas City’s win streak, here’s what Mahomes has done in four wins versus the teams that took away the big play: 2 TDs, 3 INTs. And versus the Raiders, who claim they couldn’t offer up that look, or didn’t have professionals capable of playing it: 5 TDs, 0 INTs.
You should know early in this one if the Raiders will be competitive or we’re looking at another bloodbath. But to have pre-flop action, a teaser is the way to go.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars, including a $10,000 prize on the Big Noon Kickoff game of the week, the weekly College Football Saturday contest and, of course, the Sunday NFL Challenge. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!