NFL odds Week 13: Bet on the Vikings to roll the Lions (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The landscape for Week 13 in the NFL is bizarre: Five road favorites of a touchdown or more.
That is the first time this has happened in over 40 years. This weekend will likely turn out one of three ways: extreme chaos with home underdogs winning outright; close, exciting games with the favorites eking out victories but not covering; or lastly, the books get slaughtered as the favorites roll.
I only took the bait on one of those games straight up and tossed the rest in a teaser. Week 13 might turn out to be the best teaser weekend of the season, which means expect the lines on favorites to creep even higher on game day.
Let's get into my best bets with odds via FOX Bet.
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Logic would dictate that a team coming off extra rest (Las Vegas) has a significant advantage over a team on short rest (Washington, played Monday Night). But the numbers say otherwise. Since 2003, teams with extra rest vs. teams on a short week are just 39-54-1 ATS (42%).
This line was as high as Raiders -2.5 earlier in the week before big, professional money came in on Washington. This line may close at pick 'em.
Strangely, the Washington defense has improved since former No. 1 pick Chase Young was lost for the season. Since the bye week, WFT has held top-15 offenses Tampa Bay (first) and Seattle (14th) below 6.0 yards per play and below 20 points. Both games were at home, and this one's on the road, but Washington's defense is trending up.
The Raiders rode a historic night of penalties to pull off a Thanksgiving win in Dallas, but this is a team that has been leaking oil since they fired their coach and the Henry Ruggs DUI tragedy.
Fun subplot: Washington defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was the most successful Raiders coach over the last 15 years, and he was the coach when Derek Carr had his best season as a pro (2016).
Expect Del Rio to try and blanket Hunter Renfrow with Kendall Fuller, who has graded out as the sixth-best cornerback in the NFL per Pro Football Focus.
Significant injury to keep an eye on. The Raiders' leading receiver Darren Waller is doubtful (knee/back).
PICK: Football Team (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Let's get the obvious out of the way early. Yes, Andy Reid is a rock star off of bye weeks.
As you read in the Super 6 column, Reid is 26-6 over his career in that spot. 10-4 with the Chiefs and 7-1 with Patrick Mahomes. But, I'll see your Reid trends and raise you Teddy Bridgewater's underdog ATS numbers — 26-9 as an underdog and 20-5 on the road as a dog.
This number seems high for a divisional matchup against a Denver team that has gotten healthier recently. Star edge rusher Bradley Chubb returned last week and played 30 snaps, and Garett Bolles, their best tackle, may return for the first time in a month.
The defense that slowed Kansas City's offense for much of the season — two high safeties, preventing the big play — can be played by the Broncos. It's something Las Vegas couldn't do three weeks ago, and KC made them pay. The Chiefs scored 41 points and were deemed "back."
Let's remember that Dallas employed the two-high safety defense, and the Chiefs only scored 19 points.
Fun fact: In Kansas City's last eight games, it's 0-8 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more.
The Chiefs have won 11 straight in this series, and I think they'll extend that streak here, but I'm willing to buy the half-point and deal with the extra juice to get double-digits with the dog.
PICK: Broncos (+9.5 (-120) at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The last meeting between these two teams took weeks off my life. Minnesota was cruising when Mike Zimmer went into ultra-conservative mode and nearly lost the game outright. The Vikings hit a 54-yard field goal at the horn for a 19-17 win after leading 16-6 with five minutes left.
Sure, the Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook this week, but he missed the earlier meeting, too. Alexander Mattison had 153 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in that game.
Laying a touchdown on the road in a division battle certainly sounds insane, but not when you remember that the Lions will be without D'Andre Swift. The star running back leads Detroit in carries and yards and ranks second in receptions and yards receiving. And he leads the Lions in YAC by a mile (471, nobody else is over 200). Jared Goff will lean heavily on backup Jamaal Williams, a veteran of NFC North wars. But he's no Swift.
The Vikings have led every game by seven or more points this season, yet are only 5-6. Their last three losses have been to playoff-bound teams (San Francisco, Baltimore, Dallas). But, the Lions are 0-10-1.
Look for Minnesota to roll.
PICK: Vikings (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points
Three-team, 7.5-point Teaser at FOX Bet:
Indianapolis Colts -10 to -2.5
Let's call this one the roll-the-dice on-the-road teaser. Not sure I've ever done three road teams in a teaser, but the numbers make this bet a clever play.
The Colts smashed the Texans in the earlier meeting, 31-3, and their strengths (offensive line, Jonathan Taylor) dovetail nicely with Houston's weakness — stopping the run. The Texans rank 25th in DVOA run defense and just let the Jets gash them for 157 yards.
As long as the Colts don't get caught looking ahead to the Patriots showdown next week, they will be fine.
Arizona Cardinals -7.5 to pick 'em
This leg is more about the Bears and their issues than the Cardinals. Justin Fields is dinged up and Andy Dalton might be the QB for Chicago. Either way, expect the Arizona pass rush to pressure — Cardinals are seventh in blitz percentage — early and often.
If Kyler Murray isn't 100 percent, you have to trust Colt McCoy after the starter's 2-1 mark. Those wins did come against familiar divisional opponents. He looked confused when he stepped outside against the Panthers, which resulted in an embarrassing loss for Arizona.
The problem is, the Bears injury report is longer than a CVS receipt. Playing without your three best defenders (Mack, Hicks, Smith) in the front seven is mission impossible.
The Eagles are off a loss, and the Jets are off a cover. Taking teams in this situation is something that's been a winning recipe much of this season, as we've outlined here before.
What muddles the handicap is Philadelphia's injury woes at QB, RB and center, which is the crux of their running game. And you saw how Jalen Hurts isn't capable of beating teams with his arm last week vs. the Giants.
The Eagles defense should win at the line of scrimmage, and the secondary — led by Darius Slay — has big-play ability against a rookie quarterback. They've eaten up young, inexperienced QBs (Sam Darnold, Trevor Siemian), and even decent ones, too (Matt Ryan, Jared Goff).
The Eagles should win a close one.
JMAC's Teaser:
Colts -2.5
Cardinals -.5
Eagles +.5
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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