NFL odds Week 11: Bet on the Vikings to upset the Packers (and more)
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Remember a few weeks ago when we had quarterback uncertainty throughout the NFL? Well, it’s baaaaaaaaack.
While we don't have nine teams up in the air about the QB this week, we certainly have a few big question marks. Let's start with the Packers, who didn't have Aaron Rodgers at practice Wednesday or Thursday. Now his status against the Vikings is in question, and the line is on the move.
How about Jared Goff? Will he be able to start for Detroit?
Kyler Murray's high ankle sprain has forced him to miss two games, and if he misses the Seattle game, he'll have the bye next week to give the injury a whole month to heal. I'd guess he sits rather than risk further injury and jeopardize Super Bowl chances.
Lamar Jackson has a non-COVID illness and hasn't practiced this week. Will he be good to go against the Bears?
It's also unclear if Ben Roethlisberger will return from a bout with COVID-19, and the Panthers are keeping everyone guessing with P.J. Walker or Cam Newton.
Isn't this fun? Fearlessly, let's get to the picks, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
All seems to be right in Buffalo again after the Bills drop-kicked the Jets, 45-17. The stench from the 9-6 loss to Jacksonville is gone, but a dive into the Buffalo resume turns up … underwhelming.
Once you dig a little deeper, you see the Bills have just one win over a team that currently is above .500. The 38-20 beat down of the Chiefs was Buffalo's high watermark of the season. The Bills are rated as the No. 1 defense in the NFL and sit atop the DVOA rankings, but they are largely untested, which is why this week presents an interesting test.
This line had gone up from 6 to 7.5 before some money came back on the Colts. I haven't liked the Colts all season — not a Carson Wentz guy — but they're built to compete in Buffalo, as evidenced by last year's 27-24 playoff loss to the Bills. They covered the 6.5-point spread, rang up 472 yards and had 27 first downs behind Philip Rivers. If the Colts hadn't gone 2-for-5 in the red zone, they would've stolen that win.
Buffalo can't run the ball — haven't had a 90-yard rusher this season — and if the weather gets nasty, as it does in Buffalo in the winter, that's a considerable edge for the Colts and Jonathan Taylor, who is tied for the NFL rushing lead.
I nearly got through an entire Bills game without mentioning Josh Allen, who ranks second in the NFL in turnover-worthy plays (13), and remember, that's been against a weak slate of opposing defenses.
Lastly, the trend I told you about last week, about teams that didn't cover facing those that did cover, applies here. The Colts raced to a 17-0 lead over the Jaguars and then looked sleepy for three quarters before blowing the cover. It's almost as if they were looking ahead to this rematch.
PICK: Indianapolis (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Before you look at the quarterbacks, coaches and schemes, ask yourself this: Should Carolina be favored by 3.5 over anyone?
Since being favored against the Jets and Texans in September (and covering), the Panthers have only been favored twice, both times against NFC East teams. In those games, they lost outright to Philadelphia and the Giants. But because Carolina smashed Arizona last week — as predicted here! — all the love is going to the Panthers this week.
This bet is simply a number grab. I don't trust Taylor Heinicke, but I also don't expect Cam Newton to carve up the Washington defense should he be named the starter. Feel-good story? Certainly. But being favored is entirely different.
Remember, this is a week-to-week league. Last week, the Panthers took advantage of a letdown spot for the Cardinals, an early turnover, and a failed fourth down.
This matchup reeks of a low-scoring game, one that somebody wins by a field goal. If I can get the hook, I'm taking it.
PICK: Washington (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
This season, the Packers are an NFL-best 9-1 against the spread (ATS), and they've covered every game since the opener. But there's trouble ahead.
They've been waiting for LT David Bakhtiari to make his debut this week, but he's had a setback following ACL surgery. Aaron Rodgers didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday and running back Aaron Jones is out this week. The Packers, with Rodgers at the helm, have been immune so far, but every contender has had a setback over the last two weeks: Bills (lost to Jaguars), Rams (two straight losses), Bucs (lost to Washington) and Cowboys (Broncos).
Last year in Green Bay, the Packers let Dalvin Cook rush for 163 yards and lost 28-22. The Vikings are rapidly improving on the health front, with Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce — keys to the defense — returning after missing last week's win over the Chargers.
But you know the drill when backing Mike Zimmer's team this season: Strap in because a close game awaits. Of their nine games this season, eight of them have been one-score games.
The Vikings have performed poorly as favorites at home, losing to Dallas and not covering against Detroit, but they beat Seattle by 13 as a short home underdog.
Before you pause at backing Kirk Cousins head-to-head with Aaron Rodgers, a.) the game isn't in primetime, when Cousins has historically struggled; b.) Cousins has the best TD to Interception ratio in the NFL, 18 to 2.
PICK: Minnesota (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
I'm caving and backing a double-digit favorite this week. It might be the first time all season I've done so in this space.
Every time the Lions have shown up and fought hard for Dan Campbell this season, the next week, they've been a total catastrophe. Here's one staggering stat from the tie against Pittsburgh last week: Mason Rudolph had 50 pass attempts in nearly five quarters of action. The Lions didn't sack him once or even hit him. How do you not drill a QB once in 50 pass attempts? Now Detroit goes on the road again to face a better offensive line in the Browns.
I can't find an edge for the Lions anywhere. Detroit may have to start backup QB Tim Boyle if Jared Goff (oblique) has to sit. Goff missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Boyle hasn't thrown an NFL pass since 2019 when he played with the Packers. Imagine it is your first NFL start, and you have to face the NFL sack leader, Myles Garrett.
The Browns are coming off a 45-7 embarrassment against the Patriots, and one of the small red flags I like to look for is teams coming off a pathetic showing and bouncing back. We saw the Bills and Cowboys bounce back with huge wins over bad teams a week after suffering a stunning loss.
This game won't be close.
PICK: Cleveland (-11 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 11 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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