NFL odds Week 10: Patriots over Browns is the bet you need to make (and more)
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
This NFL wagering season has been a roller coaster, with each week bringing mayhem to the gambling world. Nonetheless, we charge ahead.
Here are the bets I'm eying in Week 10, with odds via FOX Bet.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10 at FOX Bet)
I'm taking the big home favorite here for a couple of reasons. First, the numbers work in my direction. When a double-digit underdog wins outright as the Jaguars did at home last weekend against Buffalo, they are only 1-7 the following week against the spread (ATS) as double-digit dogs again.
One of those seven losses just came two weeks ago when the Colts dominated the Jets after a New York win at home against the Bengals.
Second, this is just a bad matchup for the Jaguars. The Colts are far better in the trenches, better coached, and motivated to catch up in the AFC South.
The Colts' defense ranks 11th in DVOA, while the Jaguars' offense is 24th and has issues gaining yards through the air. It will be difficult to pound the rock against a Colts rushing defense that ranks second in the NFL.
Lastly, the Jaguars' defense has issues tackling and in coverage, and they will struggle to slow down the Colts' balanced offensive attack.
If Carson Wentz can avoid bad turnovers, this will be a blowout.
PICK: Indianapolis (-10 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10 points
Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-3 at FOX Bet)
The Vikings are not the most fun team to wager on, but they are the right side here. The Vikings' offense, while run-oriented, is not efficient at running the rock. But, this is a good matchup for Minnesota, as the Chargers give up the most yards per run, allowing 5 yards per carry.
Kirk Cousins is often a punching bag on social media, but the Vikings passing attack is ranked sixth in efficiency and is facing a Chargers secondary that is beat up.
We know the Chargers' offense can be high-powered at times, but they are not good on early downs, forcing them to be excellent on third downs, which is tough to sustain.
Also, the right side of the Chargers' offensive line can be had, which is perfect for the Vikings, who boast a top-10 pass rush. That side has given Los Angeles issues all season long.
Everyone is out on the Vikings, but this is a game I think they can win straight up. I'll grab the three points to be safe.
PICK: Vikings (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Cleveland (-.5 at FOX Bet) at New England
I get a Bill Belichick-coached team against Baker Mayfield? Yes, please.
The New England defense continues to improve this season after switching from their man-based coverage plan to more of a zone-based scheme that accommodates the talent on this team.
New England's run defense is a concern against this excellent Cleveland rushing attack. The Patriots rank sixth in pass defense but 17th at stopping the run. The Browns run game is led by their great offensive line and multi-pronged running back rotation. But, that rotation will be tested this week with some of their backs currently on the COVID-19 list. There is still a possibility they could return for the game, but it's something to watch.
Either way, I love when coach Belichick faces a one-dimensional offense like Cleveland's. The Browns can pass the ball when it's schemed up but are in the bottom third in the NFL on third and fourth-down conversions because their quarterback does not execute those situations well. The Patriots will sell out to stop the run.
I am slightly concerned about the Patriots' passing attack against the Browns' defense. The Browns' pass defense has underperformed to expectations, but they are healthier now and looked good against the Bengals last weekend.
The Patriots' offensive line could have issues against the Browns pass rush. However, the Patriots will protect their passing attack by rushing the ball and playing keep away.
Yes, the Browns recently beat the Bengals, but Cincinnati appears to be overrated, ranking 22nd in overall team efficiency.
The Browns have generally struggled against teams with a pulse this season. The Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals and Steelers losses all fit into that category. This New England team can play and will beat Cleveland straight up.
PICK: New England (+.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than .5 points (or win outright)
The Steelers are hosting the Lions, and the line is above a touchdown. Pittsburgh has been poor covering the spread at home this season, but they will not lose this game.
The Lions starting quarterback Jared Goff has played for three head coaches in his career. Jeff Fisher, Sean McVay and now Dan Campbell. Jared Goff's regular-season record when starting for a Sean McVay-coached team is 42-20. His record when starting a game for a coach who is not McVay is 0-15.
The Lions are not coming into Pittsburgh and winning with their overall team woes.
Dallas got embarrassed at home against the Broncos last weekend, and I think it's foolish to expect an equally poor performance this weekend against the Falcons. The Cowboys are a great team, despite the poor loss on Sunday.
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott looked off in his return from a calf injury, and the Cowboys offensive line struggled without Tyron Smith against the Broncos' pass rush. Even if Smith does not return this week, the Falcons pass rush is not scary. Take the Cowboys in the teaser.
Geoff's Two-Team Teaser:
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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