NFL odds: How bad weather impacts betting lines

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Booking NFL games get even trickier once the calendar flips to December. 

On top of the usual balancing act a sportsbook performs with perception on one side of the teeter-totter and reality on the other, the weather tends to be a very interesting wrinkle in many parts of the United States.

Take Monday night’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots in Orchard Park. The FOX Weather forecast calls for 20 to 30 mile-per-hour winds, a 60% chance of snow and temperatures in the mid-twenties, with the possibility of gusts up to 60 miles per hour.

And while those factors were already baked into the odds when lines opened for Week 14 in the NFL, respected, sharp money from pro bettors has driven the market even lower. The point total, which opened at 45.5, is currently down to over/under 41 points scored at FOX Bet.

"You look at the Bills total this week, and it’s the lowest one they’ve had all season," Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons told FOX Sports. "Games in these bad weather cities like Cleveland, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Foxborough will always come out a little bit lower when you get past Thanksgiving just in case the weather is crappy.

"The wind factor is what people are really looking for. Each stadium is different with the wind, but if you see a front that’ll be heading through during the game, the wise guys are gonna see that. If the game is on Sunday, they’ll start hammering it around six days before kickoff. As the game gets closer, and the wind looks to be stronger, they’ll keep betting it down.

"Wind is the biggest factor for the weather." 

And if wind is the biggest factor when it comes to weather, the biggest effect from weather is undoubtedly on the over/under. 

Things like snow, wind and cold affect both teams more or less equally and don't have much of an impact on the point spread or moneyline — but inclement weather has an outsized effect on the total number of points scored by both sides. 

In fact, according to FOX research, the under has cashed in 54% of games with winds of over 20 mph since 2015. If you look back further and at games with even stronger winds, the trend becomes even more pronounced:

We’re just hours away from Bills-Pats now, of course, so it's pretty clear what kind of weather we can expect on Monday night. But what about earlier in the week, when there's always a chance that the weather forecast is inaccurate? Frigid, windy conditions can turn to a picture-perfect day for football in a matter of days.

As you can imagine, the wise guys will quickly change their tune and come over the top on totals that are perceived to be too low given a change of information.  

"If the forecast clears, the wise guys push the total back up," Salmons said. "It’s like a freeroll. They originally bet ‘Under,’ then bet ‘Over’ the lower numbers. You see a lot of that stuff go on behind the counter."

Football games that get hit with snow and wind are even tougher to quantify when it comes to creating in-game totals. Live betting is getting more and more popular around the country as players have learned they can watch a few drives, then make a bet.

If a game with a preflop total of 48.5 gets slammed by blustery elements and heavy snow in the first quarter, though, what do you do?

"The Eagles-Lions game in Philly about eight years ago comes to mind," Salmons recalled. "I checked the weather forecast, and it was supposed to snow, but you didn’t know how much. My buddy works for the Eagles, and he texted me an hour before the game and said it was coming down ridiculously hard. The total was like 50ish or high 40s. They all started betting it ‘Under.’ 

"It was 0-0 in the second quarter and I remember live betting ‘Over’ 8.5 in-game. Then all of a sudden, every play started going for a touchdown. You see it in these snow games sometimes. Teams can still pass if the snow is on AstroTurf. It’s a really big advantage for passing attacks as long as there’s not six or eight inches on the ground."

The Lions led 8-0 at halftime, but the two teams combined for 46 second-half points — 34 in the fourth quarter — and Philadelphia won 34-20.

"All those original ‘Under’ bets lost, which you never thought in a million years could happen," Salmons cracked. 

As Salmons has learned, the truth is often in the details.

"I like to educate myself on what’s actually happening [at the stadium]," he explained. "About two weeks ago, the Packers and Seahawks played the afternoon game in Green Bay. They cut to a shot of Lambeau Field and it’s snowing, but it was clearly several hours before kickoff because nobody was on the field.

"They’re trying to sell you on a snow game at Lambeau, but I’m looking at the weather forecast, and it’s clear skies, 35 degrees and five mile-per-hour winds. In that situation, people saw the snow shot and the total started to inch down a bit, but there was nothing to it. The game wound up 17-0 because Seattle couldn’t score. It had nothing to do with the weather.

"You have to trust sources at the stadiums and the forecast in front of you." 

Lastly, what about fair-weathered teams having to travel to inclement conditions? Much like home-field advantage has slowly declined over the last couple of decades — home teams are 78-101-1 ATS this season — so has the notion that warm-weather teams can’t win in the elements.

Thirty years ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers always seemed to struggle in freezing temperatures. Bettors loved firing wagers against Tampa when the thermometer read 32 degrees or fewer.

Last year, the Bucs went into frigid Green Bay with a stout defense and a 43-year-old quarterback and bounced the Packers in the NFC Championship.

So maybe the warm-weather stuff is more myth than truth at this point.

"I like to think these teams are more prepared than they’ve ever been," Salmons said. "Smart coaches know what to do. If it’s going to rain on Sunday, the team will practice outside and the coaches will dunk the balls in water to replicate the situation. Belichick does that stuff all the time.

"Teams aren’t as dumb as they used to be. Teams used to practice inside without crowd noise, then they’d go on the road, and it would be loud, and they wouldn’t know how to react. Those days are mostly over.

"One thing that hasn’t changed is that Jared Goff is terrible in the cold. You can just see it on his face. He wants no part of the elements."

And neither, apparently, do "Over" bettors.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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