NFL odds: Unders, underdogs and more Super Wild Card betting trends
Now that the longest NFL regular season in history is behind us, Super Wild Card Weekend is finally here! And from a gambling perspective, this weekend will indeed be a super wild one.
There are a couple of betting trends that stand out. Let's look at this weekend's matchups and dive into which wagers could fatten your wallets.
One big trend that has served to be profitable has been fading quarterbacks making their playoff debuts. Per FOX Sports Research, since 2002, QBs making their first career playoff start are 13-28 against the spread (ATS) and 10-31 straight up (SU).
One such instance of this trend features Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts who will be making his first playoff start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
That the Eagles are facing an MVP candidate in Tom Brady is enough reason to steer clear. Throw in the records of players in Hurts' position, and you've got even more reason to avoid taking Philly.
Also making his playoff debut is AFC darling Mac Jones. The rookie QB out of Alabama leads the New England Patriots as they battle the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night.
Narrowing down the aforementioned trend, we found that betting on rookie quarterbacks in their first playoff starts was a losing proposition. Per FOX Sports Research, rookie QBs in that situation are 4-8 ATS and 5-7 SU since 2000. So Jones has a double play working against him; he's making his first playoff start, and he's a rookie.
Now that we've looked at who bettors should fade, let's look at a glaring trend that presents some value: Betting on road teams.
Per FOX Sports Research, road teams have gone a whopping 15-3 ATS and 12-6 SU over the past four seasons. Will the scorching hot road play continue this season? Let's highlight a few of these matchups.
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals go further west to square off against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. The Cardinals are 4-point underdogs.
Yes, this is the first playoff game for the Arizona signal-caller and yes, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs after losing four of their past five games. However, the Cards did defeat their divisional rival 37-20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 3. Can Arizona keep this road team trend going?
The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Ohio to take on the banged-up Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday. The Raiders (+5.5), fresh off an epic season finale, are looking to avenge their home loss to the Bengals eight weeks ago. In 2016, Derek Carr missed his opportunity to start for the Raiders in playoffs because of injury. So with this matchup being both his and Bengals QB Joe Burrow's playoff debuts, that trend is a wash.
But can the strong road play trend hold on?
The San Francisco 49ers (+3) will take a trip to Texas to battle the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Can America's Team fight off the road trend against this spirited 49ers group? One thing is for sure, bettors backing the Boys would much rather face rookie QB Trey Lance than Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a recent Super Bowl appearance under his belt.
From an over/under point of view, unders have reigned supreme in the playoffs lately. Over the past four seasons, 12 out of 18 games have gone under their point total. One major factor is weather, which has the potential of coming into play again this weekend in Buffalo, where it is projected to be zero degrees at game time.
Lastly, if you've blindly just taken underdogs since 2015, you would be up some cash. Dogs have been barking during that time span, going 10-3 ATS.
So, there you have it, folks! Which of these betting trends are you throwing some money down on during Wild Card Weekend? Get in on the action right now at FOX Bet!
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