NFL odds: The Rams are your best bet for Wild Card Weekend (and more)
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL Playoffs are finally here, and it's refreshing to have football games where every team actually gives a damn. Mining that late December and early January betting battlefield can be brutal, and I'm just jacked that's all over.
Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us with two games on Saturday, three tilts on Sunday and a Monday night special. Ready or not, here we go.
Here are some early best bets (30-31-1) with lines via FOX Bet:
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)
I hate how much I love Las Vegas in this spot.
The Raiders have been in playoff mode for four straight weeks, and they delivered with victories in all four. You could make the argument that they're the motivated underdog playing with house money, and yet most pundits still aren't giving them a chance to make any postseason noise.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati has morphed into a very popular team at the window over the last month, and sportsbooks will undoubtedly take more Bengals bets in this matchup. One sportsbook director told me he's already written six tickets on Cincy for every one ticket on Vegas. And I don't expect that to change all that much by kickoff.
I missed getting Las Vegas +6, but this point spread is still too high. The Raiders have gotten progressively better against the pass down the stretch, and they have the personnel in the secondary to play man coverage. That will allow Maxx Crosby & Co. to put enough pressure on Joe Burrow to keep things interesting.
This matchup could very easily be a field goal game either way. Take the points and the first half Under.
PICK: Raiders (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Under 24 points scored by both teams combined in the first half at FOX Bet
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN)
Fading Kliff Kingsbury in meaningful games is my new thing.
The Cardinals melted like butter over the season's final weeks and blew their chance at an NFC West title and first-round home game. Arizona dropped four of its last five games, and two of those were absolute head-scratchers. How do you lose to Detroit and Seattle when neither team had anything to play for?
Los Angeles is more efficient on both sides of the ball, and I'll side with the defense with Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller to take care of business at home. That's a superstar at every level and enough talent to make life difficult on young Cards quarterback Kyler Murray.
As long as Matthew Stafford takes care of the football, the Rams will win by a touchdown or more behind the wizardry of Sean McVay's offense.
PICK: Rams (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points
Two-team, 6-point Teaser at FOX Bet (-122)
If you are not familiar with a two-team teaser, it allows you to move a side or total six points. But, you must win both legs of the teaser to cash in.
To maximize our betting math, let's tease the Buccaneers down through the key numbers of 7 and 3 and the Patriots up from +4 to +10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers teased from -8.5 to -2.5
Do you really think Tampa Bay is in trouble in this spot? The Bucs run defense is way too stingy for an Eagles team that sets up everything with the run. That's strength on strength, and I'll side with the team that's roster is loaded with playoff experience. Philly was impressive this year, but the sand will run out of the hourglass on Sunday.
New England Patriots teased from +4 to +10
And then there's a Bill Belichick-led team catching points. I lean heavily towards New England at +4, but I want more points just to be safe. Transforming this run-heavy Pats team with an extremely physical defensive line into a double-digit dog in freezing temperatures is too good to pass up.
Sammy's Teaser
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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