NFL odds: The 4 best Super Bowl futures bets right now
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL playoffs are here, and Super Bowl futures are out for the 14 teams that have a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
We're going to break down the four best bets to win the Super Bowl, and no, we don't like the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Tennessee. The Titans were as high as +2800 before the season kicked off, so you don't want to bet them at +850 now.
The No. 1 seed in the NFC, Green Bay, was +1300 to win the Super Bowl after the preseason, so you're not getting the best number if you grab them now at +375.
Which leads me to my four best futures bets. Here is where the value lies, with odds via FOX Bet.
Los Angeles Rams: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals, specifically Kliff Kingsbury, as the Rams have won nine of 10 vs. Arizona. Kingsbury only has one win against McVay, and that was earlier this season when the Cardinals were at full strength.
The Rams, who rank second in net yards per play this season, come into the postseason as sleepers because nobody believes in quarterback Matthew Stafford. He led the NFL in pick-sixes this season and tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (17). And Stafford has zero playoff wins, having started his career in moribund Detroit.
The Rams are definitely a Super Bowl favorite if you trust the numbers. They are one of two teams that rank in the Top 10 in offense, defense and special teams (Dallas is the other). Yes, the eye test makes you terrified of Stafford, but the value is there on the Rams.
PICK: Rams (+1000 at FOX Bet) to win the Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Nobody wants to see the 49ers in the playoffs. The Cowboys have to be nervous about drawing Kyle Shanahan in round one, especially with their power running game that grinds opponents to dust.
Shanahan will exploit your weaknesses — he is famous for attempting just eight passes in the NFC title game two years ago vs. Green Bay — and he has the best receiver/tight end combo in the NFC in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
Numbers also suggest San Francisco is a strong play. The season-long metrics speak highly of the 49ers — third in net yards per play, top eight in offensive and defensive efficiency. One potential problem is on special teams, where San Francisco ranks in the bottom six of the NFL.
You can be sure the 49ers will be bet by professional gamblers against the Cowboys, and then certainly the following week against the Rams, who San Francisco has beaten six straight times.
The 49ers' secondary is their biggest Achilles heel, with Aaron Rodgers looming in the NFC title game. But, San Francisco is definitely worth a sprinkle at this price.
PICK: 49ers (+2500 at FOX Bet) to win the Super Bowl
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LVI*
Green Bay Packers: +375 (bet $10 to win $47.50 total)
Kansas City Chiefs: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50 total)
Buffalo Bills: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Tennessee Titans: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Los Angeles Rams: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Dallas Cowboys: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Cincinnati Bengals: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
New England Patriots: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Arizona Cardinals: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
San Francisco 49ers: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Las Vegas Raiders: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Philadelphia Eagles: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Pittsburgh Steelers: +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total)
*Odds as of 2 p.m. ET on 1/14/2022
Buffalo Bills: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
How are we supposed to handle Buffalo's postseason chances? The Bills have destroyed inferior opponents, as every one of their wins came by double figures. But it has ended ugly when they get in close games: 0-5 in one-possession games. Just to show you how random that is, the Bills went 6-1 in one-possession games last season.
The loss of All-Pro Tre'Davious White at cornerback hasn't been felt yet, but it could be if they face Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase or A.J. Brown.
If you have the intestinal fortitude to not overreact to small sample sizes, and you can trust the season-long metrics — the Bills ranked first in the NFL in net yards per play, and their defense was No. 1 in DVOA — then Buffalo is built for a Super Bowl run.
PICK: Bills (+750 at FOX Bet) to win the Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50 total)
For the first time in three years, the Chiefs won't have home-field advantage in the AFC, and thus no bye week to rest up for a Super Bowl run.
Kansas City's season-long metrics don't jump off the page because of its slow start when they were 3-4, and the defense was historically bad. Yes, the defense ended the season ranked 24th in efficiency, but the addition of Melvin Ingram on the edge enabled them to move Chris Jones back to the inside, where he's more effective. The secondary is still awful and susceptible to the big play, which is why matchups vs. the Bills or Bengals are not ideal. And also why they're thrilled Justin Herbert is not in the postseason.
The Chiefs lost to all three division leaders in the AFC. Still, give me the Patrick Mahomes plus Andy Reid QB/coach combo over the rest of the AFC to once again hoist the Lombardi.
PICK: Chiefs (+425 at FOX Bet) to win the Super Bowl
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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