NFL odds: Over/under win total bets for every team in the AFC North
Nothing says football is back like the official release of next season's schedule!
And now that we know the dates of all the NFL regular season matchups for 2022, FOX Bet has released its win totals for every team. Folks, not only do we have ourselves a complete schedule to get excited about, but at FOX Bet, you can now bet on the win totals, too.
Our expert betting analysts — Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre — analyzed this year's slate and weighed in on how gamblers should wager on the win totals for each team in every division!
Let's look at the AFC North.
The Bengals were the belle of the AFC North last season as they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. The Ravens' season, however, was wrecked with injuries, and they failed to reach the postseason. Like Baltimore, the Browns with Baker Mayfield finished the season with an 8-9 record and were left out of playoffs, too. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, managed to clinch a playoff berth but lost in the wild-card round to the Chiefs. Can Cincinnati keep its top spot in the division, or will another team take the North next year?
Here are our experts' picks, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
7.5 wins for Pittsburgh Steelers at FOX Bet
Geoff's Pick — Over: -105 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
I’m going to trust in Tomlin and continue to believe this franchise will win games. Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers' coach for 15 seasons, and during that tenure, the Steelers have never finished below .500. One of those seasons did include an 8-8 campaign with quarterback Mason Rudolph starting eight games. Next season, the Steelers will either roll with Mitch Trubisky or their first-round pick Kenny Pickett at QB. Trust me, those two will not be worse than Rudolph in 2019.
Pittsburgh will always be guided by their defense which has finished no worse than 14th in defensive DVOA over the last four years. In 2020, they again had one of the best defenses in the NFL, which was able to propel the team to the postseason despite the fact that Ben Roethlisberger's arm slowly became a noodle as the season got longer.
The Steelers have a tougher-than-average schedule based on current odds for each week, but that doesn’t scare me away from believing they can win eight games.
I’m wagering on their culture and I like it.
9.5 wins for Baltimore Ravens at FOX Bet
Sammy's Pick — Over: -143 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $16.99)
I know we’re supposed to pick win totals, but I’m going in a slightly different direction with the Baltimore Ravens this season.
Hear me out.
The Ravens’ win total is O/U 9.5 with heavy juice (-143) to the "Over." That’s not the type of wager I want sitting on my pending wagers page for seven months — especially with all that juice. But there’s a similar and much more profitable wager you can make if you believe in Baltimore.
John Harbaugh’s club is currently 2-1 to win the AFC North. Now we’re talking!
Oddsmakers clearly have no strong feel for the division favorite with Cincinnati (+190), Baltimore (+200) and Cleveland (+225) all around the same price. I love the natural regression angle against the Super Bowl loser, and who knows how many games Deshaun Watson will play for the Browns?
Quarterback Lamar Jackson only started 12 games in 2021 and the Ravens were one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL in terms of total missed snaps by starters. I’ll bet against that happening in two straight seasons.
I obviously like the "Over" the win total, but +200 to win the North is a much better shake.
Mark me down for 12-5 and a division title.
9.5 wins for Cincinnati Bengals at FOX Bet
Jason's Pick — Under: -105 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
The excitement in Cincinnati about going from zero playoff wins in 30 years to reaching the Super Bowl last season is understandable. But, when it comes to gambling, we might want to dial back those expectations. Sorry, Bengals fans. Don’t hate the messenger, hate the market.
Four AFC teams currently have better Super Bowl odds than the Bengals — the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. And depending on where you look, Cincinnati is priced similarly to the Browns and Ravens. The AFC is ridiculously loaded, especially at the top.
The Bengals better get off to a hot start because they have the toughest schedule in the NFL to close the season where they will face Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Josh Allen and then the rival Ravens.
I’m largely betting NFC overs and AFC unders because the conferences are that imbalanced. The Bengals have a stretch of four road games in five weeks; out of the bye they face rugged, ground-heavy teams like Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
Joe Burrow is going to put up monster stats with the rebuilt offensive line and with his terrific receivers. However, the curse of the Super Bowl loser is real, and there’s more than a decade’s worth of data to back that up.
You don’t want to tie up too much of your bankroll in futures bets, but take a gander at the price of the Bengals to miss the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns' line pending; awaiting news regarding Deshaun Watson's availability
Geoff's Note —
With the suspension status of newly acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson unknown right now, there are no win totals available for the Browns. If Watson is cleared to play the entire season, which feels unlikely, then I’d consider picking the Browns' Over win total.
They are a talented team that just needs better play from a QB to unlock the squad's full potential. There would be some worry about Watson starting after a long layoff, but this Cleveland offense is quarterback-friendly and Watson, once active, should be able to succeed in it.
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