NFL odds: Over/under win total best bets for every team in NFC South

Nothing says football is back like the official release of next season's schedule! 

And now that we know the dates of all the NFL regular season matchups for 2022, FOX Bet has released its win totals for every team. Folks, not only do we have ourselves a complete schedule to get excited about, but at FOX Bet, you can now bet on the win totals, too.

Our expert betting analysts — Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre — analyzed this year's slate and weighed in on how gamblers should wager on the win totals for each team in every division!

Let's look at the NFC South.

Like the NFC North, only one team in the division clinched a playoff berth in 2021. That squad was Tom Brady's Buccaneers. Tampa Bay racked up 13 wins last season and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. The Saints' hopes came tumbling down after quarterback Jameis Winston's ACL injury in Week 8 sidelined him for the rest of the season. With a 9-8 record, New Orleans finished above .500 but fell short of making the postseason.

The Falcons and Panthers finished at the bottom half of the division, posting records of 7-10 and 5-12, respectively. FOX Bet has set Atlanta's over/under win total at five and Carolina's at 6.5. Can Atlanta eclipse the total with Marcus Mariota leading the charge at QB? Will Carolina overachieve next season and exceed 6.5 wins as the franchise continues its rebuild?

Here are our experts' best win total bets, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

 11.5 wins for Tampa Bay Buccaneers at FOX Bet

Geoff's Pick — Over: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

This one feels too easy which is worrisome, but I have to pull the trigger on the over. 

Tom Brady returns to the Bucs after a short retirement, but as we all know, Brady did not retire because he couldn’t play anymore. TB12 had an outstanding 2021 season where he threw for 5,316 yards, 43 touchdowns and had only 12 interceptions. He has outstanding weapons like Mike Evans, and he has an excellent offensive line that was retooled with some player movement. 

Tampa Bay will continue to have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The team has a good defensive secondary, and the Bucs won’t suffer injuries at the same rate next season as they did last. 

We do have to remember that Tampa Bay did have a change at head coach with Bruce Arians retiring, but let's be honest; Tom Brady runs that offense. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will run the defense from his head coaching position. I hope he remains as aggressive as Arians.

When forecasting a team's win total for a season, it’s prudent to look at the division slate. If you’re able to win five or six division games, you should be over your total. Tampa Bay plays in a weak division. The Falcons have Marcus Mariota at quarterback and the Panthers have Darnold or a rookie QB. The Saints have Jameis Winston but with a worse overall roster than 2021. 

Tom Brady’s teams have also won 12 games or more in nine of his last 12 seasons under center. 

Give me the over.

7.5 wins for New Orleans Saints at FOX Bet

Sammy P's Pick — Over: -162 (bet $10 to win $16.17 total)

The Sean Payton era is over in The Big Easy, but the Saints’ stingy defense should pick up right where it left off in 2021.

New Orleans finished fourth in the league in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, but the Saints went down the drain when Winston tore his ACL in Week 8.

Allen has taken over head coaching duties, so don’t expect much to change on defense and let’s not forget that his unit is 4-0 in the regular season against Tom Brady since the Hall of Famer migrated to Tampa Bay.

Assuming Winston rounds into form by the season opener, the Saints’ offense should hum with Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and a healthy Michael Thomas along with newcomers at wide receiver in Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry.

The only way to look here is "over," but I’m never going to lay -162 on a season-long bet. That’s way too much juice.

I’ll wait to play "over" 8 wins at a better price or bet the Saints to make the playoffs around +135 or higher when those markets get posted.    

5 wins for Atlanta Falcons at FOX Bet

Jason's Pick — Under: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)

How the Falcons won seven games last year is still a giant mystery. One possible answer is that five wins came over teams that picked high in the NFL Draft; The Jaguars drafted first, the Lions went second, fourth were the Jets, the Giants picked fifth and then Carolina drafted sixth. Anytime they stepped up in class, they were trounced, losing six games to playoff teams by 14 points or more. 

The Falcons suffered a downgrade at QB in the offseason, going from one of the greatest players in franchise history in Matt Ryan to Mariota. By the way, Mariota hasn’t started an NFL game since he lost his starting job in Tennessee in October 2019.

There isn’t much to like here. Atlanta's top-10 pick Drake London is coming off a fractured ankle, the team has a perpetually underwhelming offensive line, and they've also got a defense that doesn’t inspire confidence on any level. 

Outside of DT Grady Jarrett and CB Casey Hayward regaining their All-Pro form, there's not much to like about the defense. Coach Arthur Smith brought in his buddy from Tennessee, 72-year-old Dean Pees, to coach the D last year. They finished 30th in DVOA, plummeting from 14th in 2020.

All that being said, if you don’t want to bet the under and tie up your money for five months, you can profit handsomely betting against the Falcons after the first four games. There’s a tiny chance they open the season 3-1. They won’t be massive underdogs against the Saints, at the Seahawks or against the Browns, who won’t have Deshaun Watson. 

After that, they’ll be mincemeat, especially if they have to turn to rookie QB Desmond Ridder.

I'm taking the under.

6.5 wins for Carolina Panthers at FOX Bet

Geoff's Pick — Under: -133 (bet $10 to win $17.52 total)

The Panthers are simple to me. If Sam Darnold or rookie Matt Corral is the quarterback, we should smash the under. 

The Panthers don't have talent at wide receiver or running back. They've got a young offensive line that could improve throughout the season and a new identity on offense with Ben McAdoo. I do have some concern with McAdoo’s offense being too stagnant and predictable, however, I will give him the benefit that he will adjust his scheme after spending some time away from calling plays. But once again, the Panthers will have Darnold or Corral at quarterback and that’s an automatic play on the under.

The Panthers' defense finished 15th last season in DVOA, and I expect the team's young talent to ignite the defense into a top-10 finish in 2022. But once again, they have two awful options at quarterback. 

However …

…if the Panthers land Baker Mayfield from Cleveland, I’d take the over here. I’m no fan of Mayfield, but it’s worth acknowledging that he led the Browns to playoffs when healthy in 2020. He’s a quality starter who could help the Panthers get their record close to .500 in a prove-it season for him. 

Unless Mayfield swoops in to save Carolina's season, I'm sticking with the under. 

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