NFL odds: The MVP race is Aaron Rodgers' to lose — here's why

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Stop the presses: Betting arithmetic implies that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will take home his fourth NFL Most Valuable Player award.

Rodgers was as high as +550 before Tom Brady laid a goose egg against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, and the market has drastically swung toward the green and gold gunslinger ever since.

FOX Bet is currently dealing Rodgers at -175 (meaning a $175 wager wins $100), a price that implies a 63% chance of Rodgers taking home the hardware. Some sportsbooks are even higher.

NFL MVP odds via FOX Bet*

Aaron Rodgers: -175 (bet $10 to win $15.71 total)
Jonathan Taylor: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Tom Brady: +650 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Patrick Mahomes: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Josh Allen: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Dak Prescott: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Cooper Kupp: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Joe Burrow: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Matthew Stafford: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

*As of 12/31 at 7 p.m. ET

"We’re at -240 on Rodgers right now," WynnBET senior trader Motoi Pearson told FOX Sports. "And we’re pretty protected with him, because we’ve been booking the MVP market with the notion that he’s going to win.

"It’s pretty favorable with Green Bay’s remaining schedule, and we’re definitely happy with Rodgers being the favorite at this moment."

Yes, Brady has the edge in yards — 4,580 passing yards to Rodgers' 3,689 — but that's thanks to 157 more throws. Rodgers has been much more accurate and efficient, plus his team has French doors to a first-round bye in the NFL Playoffs.

In fact, Brady is no longer even the runner-up in MVP odds at +650. The biggest riser in the MVP market is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who’s now +600 at FOX Bet. The odds are good that Taylor finishes with over 2,000 yards on the ground and 20 touchdowns, but that’s likely not enough to unseat the reigning champ.

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"We’ve taken a bunch of money on Taylor, and a decent amount recently at 10-to-1, that we probably didn’t want to take," Pearson said. "If he wins the MVP, we’ll be in some trouble because of all the bets at bigger prices.

"Another skill guy with big liability that we’re trying to avoid is Cooper Kupp," Pearson added. "We wrote some good bets around 50-to-1 on Kupp a few months ago, but I’m not scared. It’s a quarterback-driven league, and that helps drive the MVP conversation."

Kupp pulling the upset and winning MVP would make Pearson queasier than he gets after a late-night cheese fry splurge on Fremont Street. "We would lose mid-to-high six figures," he reported.

Another dark horse is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. FOX Bet has Mahomes listed at 11-to-1, which is notably lower than some of the 65 and 70-to-1 prices that were in the market when KC stumbled out to a 3-4 start.

Kansas City has since ripped off eight straight wins, and much like Green Bay, the Chiefs are well on their way to the top seed in their respective conference.

"We were pretty careful with Mahomes across all the markets," Pearson explained. "We didn’t ever want to get too high for MVP or in the AFC and Super Bowl markets, because we know what he’s capable of doing. We’re willing to take some bets on Mahomes, and we’ll drop his odds accordingly if need be."

All in all, the conversation still starts and ends with Rodgers.

Assuming Green Bay takes care of business and beats Minnesota as a 7-point favorite in Week 17, then defeats Detroit in the regular-season finale, the Packers will finish with a 14-3 record and the top overall seed in the NFC.

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It would almost be impossible for the voters to ignore how important and valuable Rodgers is to his team at that point. So … could betting No. 12 to win the MVP at -175 at FOX Bet be somewhat cheap?

"It honestly feels that way," Pearson said. "There was a discussion about this in the back the other day. How high could we go on Rodgers? We’re a lot higher than most shops in the market, and the path to hardware is easy to see."

After the NFL hands out its awards and the postseason concludes, bookmakers will eventually turn the page and start taking bets for next season. For a cat like Pearson, it’s never too early to think about the future.

So is he higher on Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in 2022?

"Burrow 100%," Pearson said without hesitation. "I was pretty high on him coming into this season. He’s come into his own quicker than many people expected and he’s got so many weapons in that offense. Going forward, Burrow is the guy we’ll be watching closely in the MVP market."

"I would open Burrow around 20-to-1 next year."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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