NFL odds Week 6: How to bet Cowboys-Eagles, pick
The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will resume their long NFL East Division rivalry on Sunday, this time with both teams in the hunt for first place.
The 5-0 Eagles are the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, and the Cowboys are right behind at 4-1, thanks to a four-game winning streak. The Cowboys lead the all-time series, which began in 1960, 72-54, winning the past three contests and seven of the past night.
Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Sunday's matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).
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Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles remain the only undefeated team in the league.
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Cowboys at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Point spread: Eagles -5.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Cowboys cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -227 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.41 total); Cowboys +170 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined
Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
Last week, the Cowboys averaged -0.21 EPA/dropback, which ranked No. 25 in the NFL.
Aside from catching Cincinnati's eighth-ranked pass defense by surprise in his first start and scoring 14 early points, Cooper Rush has had the good fortune of playing:
No. 23 pass defense of the Giants
No. 30 pass defense of the Commanders
No. 25 pass defense of the Rams
That’s three bottom-10 pass defenses.
Now, he goes up against the Eagles second-ranked pass defense, which has faced an average schedule of pass offenses to date.
The schedule discussion is also important to stick with on the other side of the ball.
The defense, not the offense, has helped the Cowboys win their games this year.
And on the season, look at these offensive lines they’ve gone up against:
- Rams
- Commanders
- Giants
- Bengals
In terms of pressure rate allowed by those lines in the first three quarters of games, they rank:
- No. 31
- No. 26
- No. 23
- No. 20
Sure, you might argue, but that’s because they played the Cowboys. Fine. Remove the Cowboys games. Those teams still rank:
- No. 31
- No. 25
- No. 23
- No. 13
In pressure rate allowed. They do not have good offensive lines.
That’s something you cannot say about the Eagles, whose offensive line ranks seventh in pressure rate allowed.
So clearly, the Eagles offensive line is in a different universe than the teams Dallas has defeated.
But there is still a problem for Philadelphia.
They haven’t faced a pass rush anywhere close to what the Cowboys bring.
On the season, the Eagles have gone up against:
These teams rank:
- No. 25
- No. 18
- No. 17
- No. 15
- No. 12
In pressure rate. None are top-10. The Cowboys are tops in pressure rate in the game’s first three quarters, recording pressure on 42.5% of opponent dropbacks.
So if the water meets its level, the Eagles will be pressured more than accustomed, and the Cowboys pass rush will get home less than usual.
So how does Jalen Hurts do vs. pressure?
It’s not ideal.
His splits this year:
When pressured: -0.48 EPA/att, 28% success, 5.3 YPA, 42% completions
When not pressured: +0.37 EPA/att, 52% success, 9.6 YPA, 76% completions
These splits are massive, but Hurts is still above average in EPA/att when pressured. But this game might be the first time we see more of these bad pressure numbers creep into the final output of the Eagles offense.
What’s going to be extra important for the Eagles is to jump out to an early lead.
It’s probably more important to emphasize building a fast lead vs. the Cowboys than any team in the NFL.
You cannot be predictable offensively against Dallas and drop back often to pass on known passing situations, and that’s exactly what happens when you’re trailing.
The Cowboys have led at halftime in all of their wins this year. They’ve forced opponents to drop back to pass often vs. their strong pass rush.
But the Cowboys run defense is a major liability. This strong Dallas defense ranks fifth vs. the pass but 25th vs. the run. And dead last vs. explosive rushing.
And the Eagles have the sixth-ranked run offense.
Dallas hasn’t even played a good run offense this year. Dallas has played the sixth-easiest schedule of run offenses this year. Every opponent has ranked 20th or worse save for the Giants.
The Eagles must use the run game to avoid as many long-yardage known passing situations as possible. And build a halftime lead.
That way, in the second half, the entire playbook is open to the Eagles offense, which will minimize the strong pass rush of the Cowboys.
Additionally, it will put the onus on the Cowboys offense to get aggressive to catch up. Which is exactly what you want Cooper Rush to have to do.
Rush has been solid passing the ball on first downs when defenses don’t know if Dallas is going to run or pass:
- 75% completions (No. 5)
- +0.41 EPA/att (No. 1)
- 60.0% success (No. 2)
- 10.0 YPA (No.4)
But look at his performance on second or third downs, with 5+ yards to go, and his ranking out of 35 QBs:
- 54% completions (No. 34)
- -0.33 EPA/att (No. 33)
- 37.1% success (No. 33)
- 5.5 YPA (No. 31)
He shifts from one of the best-performing quarterbacks when passing on first down to one of the worst when passing on late downs when the defense might likely play the pass.
If the Eagles jump out to a lead?
They’ll get many late-down attempts from Rush, which are terrible.
Can the Eagles land a knockout blow early, or will they keep the Cowboys in the game or trail?
Rush will only be passing when it’s in his best interest.
This game presents the perfect live betting opportunity. If the Cowboys start out the game getting after Hurts and don’t fall behind early, jump on the Cowboys live line.
The inevitable problem for the Eagles comes when, even if they jump out to a lead, they stall out their offense in the second half, as has happened in every game.
The Eagles are averaging 21.2 first-half points and only 5.8 second-half points.
Assuming they’re good enough to jump out to an early lead, Philadelphia must continue to keep pressure on the Cowboys via the scoreboard to keep Rush chucking from behind when trailing.
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
Anyone have Cooper Rush going 4-0 as a starter and 4-0 ATS?
He’s not taking Dak Prescott’s job, but he’s also not making mistakes and the Cowboys have turned back the clock, grinding teams with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and riding one of the nastiest front seven defenses in the league. Micah Parsons is playing a modern-day Lawrence Taylor, tied for the league lead in sacks with 6, and is 2nd in the NFL in QB knockdowns with 11. Rush has been playing with the lead almost exclusively, and hasn’t trailed in the 4th quarter yet.
The Eagles have blown teams away in the first half, and are the highest scoring team in the 2nd quarter (18.4 ppg). It’ll be very telling to see Rush in a hostile environment, at night, against an elite defense. Back-to-back road games for Dallas, on opposite coasts, will be a challenge, especially facing a mobile QB. Daniel Jones averaged 8.8 yards per carry for the Giants against Dallas; Hurts leads all NFL QBs in carries with 68.
PICK: Eagles (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points:
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