NFL odds Week 6: How to bet Buccaneers-Steelers, pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers for a Sunday afternoon, Week 6 NFL showdown.

The 3-2 Bucs are coming off a 21-15 win over the Falcons. The Steelers, on the other hand, are coming into this game on a four-game losing skid. So far this season, they've fallen to the Patriots, Browns, Jets and Buffalo. Pittsburgh's only win this season was a Week 1, 23-20 victory over the Bengals.

Can Tampa Bay keep rolling and improve to 4-2 this weekend, or will the Steelers finally get that elusive second win?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Buccaneers-Steelers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Buccaneers at Steelers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Buccaneers -8 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 8 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -400 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.50 total); Steelers +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total scoring over/under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

After a three-game home stand, the Bucs head out on the road to take on the hapless and injured Steelers.

Although this Steelers passing offense did not put up points last week, it showed a massive improvement.

Look at these passing splits:

Weeks 1-4: -0.21 EPA/dropback (No. 31)
Week 5: +0.05 EPA/dropback (No. 16)

In the last three weeks, the Bucs defense has been shredded with underneath passing. Yes, this came against the Packers and Chiefs, but they were also exploited by the Atlanta Falcons last week.

They allowed +0.34 EPA/att on passes from Mariota, which were thrown less than 15 yards.

Over the last three games, they are allowing +0.31 EPA/att on passes thrown less than 15 yards.

That’s the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Kenny Pickett should be able to have some success in this area.

Last week’s start for Pickett, facing a great pass defense in the wind on the road, was far less than ideal.

Playing in the friendly confines of his college stadium this week in his first start should make things substantially better for him.

One thing we know about the Bucs is that they will bring pressure. On the season, they’re blitzing at the fifth-highest rate on early downs, at 35%. Last week against Marcus Mariota, they blitzed at an insane 68% rate. The Bucs may try to do similar this week with the inexperienced Pickett.

But the wild thing about the Steelers passing offense on the season is they’ve been shockingly great facing the blitz.

This season, the top-ranked offense vs. early down blitzes in EPA/att is the Steelers offense.

They are averaging +0.37 EPA/att on 35 dropbacks vs. the blitz this year.

In addition to ranking first in EPA/att, they are second in completion rate, fourth in YPA and fifth in success rate.

While most of those attempts were from Mitchell Trubisky, Kenny Pickett posted a stat line of 7-of-9, 7.1 YPA and 55% success rate against the biltz.

The point is, the Steelers may have more answers vs. the blitz than we otherwise would suspect. And often, big plays can occur when defenses sell out to get after the quarterback.

The Bucs enter this game getting healthier offensively.

Look at Tom Brady’s splits the last two weeks, with the return of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, vs. the first three weeks of the season:

Weeks 1-3: No. 19 in EPA/att, No. 21 in success rate, No. 12 in completion rate, No. 11 in TD/INT ratio, No. 28 in third down conversion rate
Weeks 4-5: No. 7 in EPA/att, No. 1 in success rate, No. 5 in completion rate, No. 1 in TD/INT ratio, No. 2 in third down conversion rate

Both of these defensive secondaries are dealing with massive cluster injuries, and studying the injury report closer to kickoff will be very telling as to how many of these players can return for this game.

I expect a very focused effort from the Steelers after their terrible performance last week.

And I would lean toward the Steelers and the Over.

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Pittsburgh stinks. The Steelers might be the worst team in football, but I’m going to back them here.

First, Tomlin’s teams are fantastic against the spread at home. Second, this is Kenny Pickett’s first home start and I would expect improvement from the offense after scoring only three points against Buffalo. Pickett only turned the ball over once, and he played better than the box score suggests. The biggest issue for the Steelers' offense on Sunday was their 0-for-4 performance in the red zone. They can’t be worse on Sunday against the Bucs.

I’m always optimistic about a Tom Brady team. He’s the best ever, and no matter how shaky his team might look, he has shown over and over again it might not matter. However, I’m starting to lose my optimism as the Bucs just seem to be stuck in the mud. They lost to the Packers, got blown out by the Chiefs and without a horrendous roughing the passer call against Grady Jarrett, the Falcons would have the ball driving to win on Sunday.

I’m just not sure the Bucs are all that good right now and this is the perfect spot to buy against them. This is a lowly Steelers team that no one believes in, facing a Tampa Bay team that is better on paper than they’ve played.

PICK: Steelers (+8 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

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