NFL odds Week 6: How to bet 49ers-Falcons, pick

The San Francisco 49ers (3-2) square off against the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) in a Week 6 matchup.

The 49ers are coming off a dominating 37-15 win against the Carolina Panthers, while the Falcons suffered a 21-15 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Will the 49ers get their fourth win or can the Falcons get back to .500?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Niners-Falcons game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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49ers at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: 49ers -5.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Falcons cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -250 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14 total); Falcons +190 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $29 total)
Total scoring over/under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

One of the keys in this game is the status of the secondary for the 49ers.

Jimmie Ward made his 2022 debut after being activated from the IR, but suffered a broken hand and will undergo surgery.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t the worst injury to hit the 49ers’ secondary as Emmanuel Moseley is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL.

With Jason Verrett still on the PUP list, Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward are the top two corners, although Lenoir has spent most of this season in the slot.

Against most offenses, these could be crippling losses. But against the Atlanta Falcons, that might not be the case.

First, this team does not want to run the ball. They have the fifth-lowest pass rate in the NFL.

Second, the Falcons’ top two pass-catchers are banged up right now. Kyle Pitts was inactive on Sunday due to a hamstring injury and Drake London went down late in the contest with an ankle injury. London avoided the injury report on Wednesday, so he should be ok to play on Sunday, but Pitts is practicing in a limited fashion, and we’ll need to monitor his status closely.

While the Falcons have been a fun team to start the season and are the only team currently undefeated against the spread (5-0), their performances leave something to be desired.

They’ve played two bottom-three defenses (No. 30 Browns, No. 31 Seahawks) and won both of those games.

Against the Rams, they trailed 28-3 and 31-10 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to respectably lose 31-27 and cover thanks to a blocked punt TD and an intentional safety taken by the Rams, which combined bumped the Falcons from 31-17 to 31-27 in the final 5:00 of the game.

Against the Buccaneers, they trailed 21-0 into the fourth quarter. Their offense in the first three quarters produced the following:

Passing: 9-of-18, -0.33 EPA/att, 32% success, 4.7 YPA
RB Rushing: 4.1 YPC, -0.16 EPA/att, 33% success

Then, in the fourth quarter, starting a drive at the Bucs 43-yard line, the Falcons drove for a TD and, after forcing two straight punts on three-and-outs as the Bucs tried to run the clock out, scored their final TD to close the margin to 21-15.

If we are to believe what we’ve seen, this is a Falcons team capable of competing with bad offenses but only able to cover games with large lines when in panic mode late in the fourth quarter.

It’s going to be a strength-on-strength matchup when the Falcons do try to run the ball, as they rank second running the ball and first on first down runs vs the 49ers run defense which ranks first defending the run and second defending first down runs.

Assuming the 49ers strong front-7 can minimize the Falcons run game, this game boils down to how the Falcons defense stops the 49ers offense.

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 on the season but have covered all five football games they’ve played. They are a feisty bunch, and they seem to pick up steam as the game grows longer. They’ve been able to claw back into football games with their diverse rushing attack that ranked second heading into last weekend.

Like most teams whose primary method of offense is running the ball, it takes some game minutes to get comfortable getting into a rhythm with the ground attack. The Falcons have another opportunity this weekend to keep a game close with a larger point spread.

The 49ers easily dispatched the Panthers on Sunday, but that win came at a cost. Their best cornerback, Jimmie Ward, will miss time with a wrist injury and their best pass rusher, Nick Bosa, left the game with a groin injury. The 49ers were already without Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw in Carolina. Without three starting defensive linemen, the Falcons' offense will control the line of scrimmage.

The 49ers' offense should move the ball well enough against this Falcons defense. However, I do like the matchup of Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett against any of the Niners interior linemen. He’s good enough to make things very difficult for Jimmy G.

I do not think the Falcons will win the game, but I’ll take them to cover the 5.5 points

PICK: Falcons (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

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