NFL odds: Fade Cowboys, other best Week 3 preseason bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The final weekend of NFL preseason games is upon us! Where did the time go? It seems like we were just watching the NFL Draft yesterday. And now here we are, T-minus two weeks until the regular season kicks off.

As excited as we all are, there's still some exhibition football left to play before we can get to the main event. Saturday, especially, will be jampacked with eight contests. I'm focusing on three games from this final preseason week, with picks that will hopefully earn us all some cash.

Let's dive into my wagers for Week 3 of this NFL preseason, with all odds via FOX Bet.

THURSDAY

Packers @ Chiefs (8 p.m. ET, NFLN) 

Both of these teams are going to have trouble scoring Thursday night. The Packers are not playing Aaron Rodgers or any of their starters. Heck, Green Bay might not even play backup quarterback Jordan Love, and he has gotten a majority of the quarterback reps for the team this preseason. 

Kansas City won't play its starters, either. The Chiefs' starting units did perform exceptionally well against the Commanders in a matchup they won 14-0. However, when KC doesn’t play its starters on offense in the preseason, the team doesn't score. 

The Chiefs have only scored a combined 36 second-half points over their past five preseason games. As I’ve stated before, Andy Reid’s primary goal for preseason games is getting his first-team offense ready to play while the backups are just running a generic offense. With the backups, Reid doesn't even attempt to script for maximum success as he does with the starters. 

I expect this one to be low scoring, as the Chiefs won’t score much and the Packers' backups will play all game long.

PICK: Under 36 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

FRIDAY

Seahawks @ Cowboys (8 p.m. ET, NFLN)

I know the Seahawks have been stinky this preseason, but they need this game more than the Cowboys. Seattle is still going through a quarterback battle, and I expect Drew Lock — who did not play in Week 2 because of COVID-19 — to get a lot of the reps for the Seahawks. 

Because of the QB competition, the Seahawks will treat this game with more respect and preparation than their counterparts. Dallas, by the way, is coached by Mike McCarthy, and his preseason record against the spread (ATS) is under 50%. On the other side is Pete Carroll, who — despite not covering the first two games of this preseason — is still 62% ATS in the preseason. 

PICK: Seahawks (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

SATURDAY

Commanders @ Ravens (7 p.m., TV TBA)

The Ravens have won 22 straight preseason games! Better yet, they've covered in 19 of those 22 matchups. I know it seems wild, but there’s an explanation. 

Baltimore's opponents do not prepare for this type of offense in the preseason, and the Ravens are a technically sound team in general. They do not turn the ball over, and they play good defense. Also, Baltimore's backup quarterbacks have crushed the preseason. Tyler Huntley has completed an awesome 29 of 32 passes (91%) and rookie Anthony Brown has gone 20 of 28 (71%). 

The Commanders do not play the Ravens this regular season, so there’s little to gain from spending any real dedicated time preparing a game plan for this final preseason game. It's also worth noting that the Commanders have spent most of the preseason being blah. They needed 15 points in the fourth quarter against Carolina in their first preseason game to finish with a two-point loss. Against Kansas City, they only scored seven points in the second half.  

Ravens are the easy wager here. The streak stays alive!

PICK: Ravens (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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