NFL odds: Why the Cowboys were the best team to bet on in 2021
Handicapping NFL games is a science that takes years to perfect, and many oddsmakers love adjusting their formulas and models to come up with the perfect lines for NFL games. Ideally, the spread should be set so that underdogs and favorites are a toss-up and the games get 50-50 betting action.
However, there are always a couple of outliers every year when it comes to bucking the trend. This season, the Dallas Cowboys crushed the betting game as they went a whopping 13-4 against the spread (ATS) — best in the NFL. If you bet on "America’s Team" ATS every game this season, you would have had roughly a 45% return on your investment. That's the sort of profit Texas oilmen love.
The ‘Boys have come a long way betting-wise as they were the worst team to bet on last season, finishing 5-11 ATS. Quarterback Dak Prescott being healthy this season played a big part in the turnaround as he finished with over 4,400 yards and 37 touchdowns.
The defense also held up their share of the bargain, finishing first in takeaways and seventh in scoring defense. On that side of the ball, linebacker Micah Parsons was a huge addition as he is a lock for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Parsons will also certainly get overall Defensive Player of the Year consideration considering his stellar stats of 84 tackles (20 for a loss) and 13 sacks. Cornerback Trevon Diggs also played a big role in the Cowboys' success, leading the NFL in interceptions with 11.
So will the team's regular-season betting success carry over into the playoffs? The Cowboys are laying 3 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday’s Super Wild Card matchup at AT&T Stadium. If you are big on betting trends, you could do a lot worse than wagering on the ‘Boys.
On the flip side, the worst playoff teams gambling-wise are the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders. All the aforementioned teams went 8-9 ATS this season. Let's take a look at their spreads this weekend and see if we can find some value.
With the Chiefs playing the Steelers this week, something has to give. While the Chiefs are 12-5 straight up (SU) on the season, they were somewhat of a disappointment against the number. Does that mean laying 12.5 against the Steelers is too much regardless of K.C.'s reputation as a high-scoring team? For what it's worth, the Chiefs covered against the Steelers less than a month ago, with the game getting out of hand early.
After squeaking out a non-tie on Sunday, the Raiders look to improve upon their 8-9 ATS record against the Cincinnati Bengals in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card game at Paul Brown Stadium. Las Vegas is getting 5.5 points in this matchup against Cincy.
Las Vegas went 10-7 SU on the season but only 8-9 ATS. Given all the turmoil the Raiders went through this season, it’s a wonder they are even in this position, which is a testament to their coaches and players.
The most intriguing matchup from an ATS perspective features the Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals finished the season 10-7 ATS while the Rams went 8-9 ATS. Los Angeles is a 4-point favorite in this division rival matchup.
The pair split their two regular-season meetings with the Cardinals (+4) covering the first matchup on the road and the Rams (+3) covering as road dogs in the second matchup. This game should be interesting as while win or go home is important for the team, covering the spread is even more important for gamblers.
So there you have it, never miss out on an opportunity to use the trends to your advantage. While ATS records don’t always correlate to wins for the team, they can certainly correlate to wins in your bank account. And if you want in on the action, head over to FOX Bet to place your bets.
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