NFL odds: Chiefs AFC favorites, Lamar Jackson and Ravens on the decline

As the NFL regular season winds down, the playoff picture becomes a little clearer with every passing Sunday. For some teams, their postseason hopes are very much alive, while for others, their playoff destinies are plagued with uncertainty.

Two teams — the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens — have their odds headed in opposite directions.

On the field, Kansas City is hitting its stride, while Baltimore is trending downward.

In the AFC West, Kansas City is peaking at the right time. Their five-game winning streak was punctuated by a 48-9 trouncing of the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. And quarterback Patrick Mahomes made believers out of naysayers. After struggling for several games, Mahomes went 20-of-24 passing for 258 yards and two touchdowns in the dismantling of Las Vegas. "Showtime" proved why he has the fourth-best MVP odds at FOX Bet at +1000.

And it's not just Mahomes who has found a groove during this stretch, it's the entire Chiefs team. Two of the team's past five wins were against the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers, two title contenders led by quarterbacks who are both in the MVP hunt — Aaron Rodgers' MVP odds are +550 at FOX Bet, while Dak Prescott sits at +2000.

The Chiefs' offense ranks eighth in points per game, scoring an average of 27 each contest. And their defense has turned things around in a huge way. That unit ranks sixth in points per game, allowing opponents only 20.6. 

Undoubtedly, Mahomes and 9-4 KC have found their shine when it matters most. FOX Bet lists the Chiefs as the favorites to come out of the AFC and win the Super Bowl, at +550 — a small shift from +500 a week ago.

On the flip side, Baltimore, another hyped title contender, is reeling. The Ravens are on top of the AFC North with an 8-5 record, but the Cleveland Browns are hot on their heels — second in the division with a 7-6 record. 

Even more worrisome than the Browns inching closer to taking over the division is quarterback Lamar Jackson's injury. In the Ravens' 24-22 loss to Cleveland on Sunday, Jackson sustained an ankle injury and was carted off the field during the second quarter.

No surprise here, but the Ravens' offense relies heavily on Jackson. This season, he's racked up 2,882 yards in the air with 16 passing touchdowns and has rushed for 767 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson has the 10th-best MVP odds at FOX Bet at +4000, but to the Ravens, his arm strength combined with his ability to elude defenders makes him their most valuable player. 

Per FOX research, when Jackson starts for the Ravens, they are 27-21-1 against the spread (ATS). Also, since his first start in 2018, the Ravens are 30-21-1 ATS. 

A two-game losing streak and a QB injury are the Ravens' unfortunate current reality. Oddsmakers have little confidence that this squad will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February as they have lengthened the team's Super Bowl futures to +2800 from +1500.

Another perhaps unlucky break for the Ravens is that they face the Packers in a huge game Sunday. Rodgers and the 10-3 Packers come into this game surging. Green Bay has the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +700. Aaron Rodgers and company are a juggernaut on both sides of the ball.

Green Bay's defense allows opponents only 20.9 points per game and the Packers' offense racks up an average of 361.5 yards per matchup.

Is it too early to count out the Ravens when they could have redeeming games against the Steelers and Rams? Is it premature to ride the Kansas City wave when they still have the 8-5 Chargers and the 7-6 Bengals ahead? 

To get an oddsmaker's point of view, we turned to FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor.

"I think this is the exact reason that even at the lowest point of Kansas City's slump, their Super Bowl odds never went too high," he said. "Everyone knows when the Chiefs finally click, they have enough talent that no one will want to play them in January."

The Baltimore situation, on the other hand, is a little more complicated.

"That's a tough one to sort with Lamar's status still up in the air," Blangsted-Barnor said. "We would expect Lamar to at least miss the Packers game, hence the big spread despite Baltimore being at home." 

As for John Harbaugh's "we'll see" comments regarding Jackson's availability for Sunday, FOX Bet has already figured the quarterback's status into the point spread.

"There’s likely still a small amount built-in for the small chance he plays, so expect the spread to potentially move another half point or so if it's confirmed he’s out," Blangsted-Barnor said.

When it comes to the rest of the AFC, the Buffalo Bills are another contender on the ropes. Quarterback Josh Allen and his team pushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the limit in regulation, only to lose 33-27 in overtime Sunday. Buffalo, whose Super Bowl odds sit at +1400, have lost two consecutive games and are "clinging to seventh and final AFC spot."

While the Bills have very winnable games against the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers coming up, they still have to face the New England Patriots, their AFC rivals who lead the division with a 9-4 record.

Which AFC team are you betting your bucks on to make a decent postseason run — the banged-up Ravens? The surging Chiefs? Or another team?

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