NFL odds: Buccaneers over Eagles is the bet you need to make (and more)

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us! I'm pumped for the big games, so let's just get into my best bets.

Here are my favorite wagers for the weekend, with odds via FOX Bet.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

When wagering, it's essential to follow the market all week to try to get the best possible number. For this matchup, that was when this line opened at Tampa Bay -7. Bettors immediately hammered the Bucs once that number was hung, shooting the line upwards. I still like Tampa below double-digits in this contest between two vastly different teams.

Philadelphia exceeded expectations this season when they made the playoffs as a wild-card team. The Eagles are built in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but the team's strength lies in their offensive line and run game. Their rushing attack, which includes using quarterback Jalen Hurts, is one of the best in the NFL. They use the run game to avoid putting Hurts in obvious throwing situations, which is not his strong suit.

But, on the other side of the ball, their defense ranks 25th in DVOA, which is alarming considering who they've played this season. The Eagles beat zero playoff teams, and, get this, their last six wins were against this amazing group (sarcasm) of quarterbacks: Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Siemian, Zach Wilson, Garrett Gilbert, Mike Glennon and Taylor Heinicke. Big yikes.

On the other hand, Tom Brady and the Bucs have spent their entire season waiting for the playoffs. Everything they did during the regular season was geared for this playoff run, and now they get to start at home.

The Bucs have covered 12 of their last 17 at home, including six of their previous seven. They have the No. 1 ranked offense to pair with the ninth-ranked defense. And Tampa Bay is getting some reinforcements, as Leonard Fournette and Lavonte David are returning to the lineup after three weeks on the injured reserve.

The Eagles do have the trenches that most teams would be jealous of, but the Buccaneers one-up them in that area. Tampa Bay has multiple potential All-Pros across the board, including center Ryan Jensen who sets the tone for this unit. We know the Bucs' defensive line can stop the run and rush the passer, which is why they are extremely tough to play against. While Tampa Bay's pass defense can be had, the Eagles are not built to counter that.

More than anything, experience counts in this matchup. The Bucs are tested and know this feeling, as they are marching on for back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

I like Tampa Bay to roll big in this game.

PICK: Buccaneers (-8 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8 points

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

A rematch of division rivals will happen Saturday night in the chill of Buffalo. Game-time temperatures are expected to be around zero, brrr.

As for the game itself, I'm taking the Patriots and the points. New England won the first matchup in that wild weather game where Patriots quarterback Mac Jones only attempted three passes. A few weeks later, New England lost to Buffalo 33-21, though that game was 20-14 entering the fourth quarter. These two teams know each other well, and I expect this game to be close.

From my playing years, when the weather is this cold, the offensive and defensive lines are significant for who will win. Both of which favorite the Patriots in this case.

We've seen in both matchups that the New England offensive line has an advantage here. The Patriots' offense is predicated on running the football, play-action, short passes and whatever is needed to protect Jones. If New England wants to win, its offensive line needs to play well because moving the ball through the air is difficult against this No. 1 ranked Bills pass defense.

On the flip side, Buffalo has had their issues protecting Josh Allen, which usually forces him out of the pocket. And unlike 2020, the quarterback has not been as good in those situations. However, in the Bills' last win against the Patriots, Allen played out of his mind. He was fantastic, and if he does play like that again, the Bills will win. But, I have my reservations about that.

For starters, Allen has struggled against Bill Belichick. His record is 3-4, although he has won three of the last four. But, in those seven games, he's completing just 57% of passes and has had some of his lowest yards per attempt of his career. 

Lastly, considering Allen plays in Buffalo, he is oddly terrible in cold weather. Allen has played in five games with a temperate under freezing, and he's only completed 50% of passes for 166 yards per game in those outings.

All the signs point to this being a slugfest, so I'll take the Patriots and the points.

PICK: Patriots (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)

This matchup is a fascinating game to start Wild Card Weekend. I immediately grabbed the Raiders at +6 when the line dropped Sunday night. The spread is now down to 5.5 as sharp money moved the Raiders number down.

The Raiders have won four in a row to get into the playoffs and now head to Cincinnati, looking for their first playoff win since 1992. It hasn't been pretty, but Las Vegas has done enough to win. The Raiders' offense behind Derek Carr is completing passes to Hunter Renfrow, and now with Darren Waller back, they should be better this weekend.

The Raiders pass rush has been outstanding over the last month of the season, and I think Maxx Crosby has the potential to hit Joe Burrow early and often in this one. We know the Bengals' offensive line isn't good, so that will be a key matchup to look out for. 

Yes, I'm terrified of Burrow connecting with Ja'Marr Chase for explosive plays, but give the Raiders' pass defense credit. That unit ranks fourth in the NFL at wide receiver yards per game and No. 1 in yards per attempt as a whole.

The Bengals have all the pressure on them, while the Raiders can play free. Give me the points.

PICK: Raiders (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

Two-team, 6.5-point Teaser

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

The Chiefs will kick the Steelers' butts again, but this line is far too big for me to feel comfortable betting on. So I like going the teaser route with the Chiefs. 

Take Tampa Bay and Kansas City in a teaser, and you can move the two big favorites down to more reasonable lines.

Geoff's Teaser

Tampa Bay Buccaneers teased from -8 to -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs teased from -12.5 to -6

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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