NFL Odds: 6 player prop bets to make for the divisional round
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
We know wagering on a side or total for a game can be difficult when there are only four games on the weekend, which is why I've got some player prop bets I like to help us win some wagers!
Here are my best prop bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
This bet is not a wager against Aaron Rodgers playing well on Saturday night but more about the game plan and trends. It's going to be cold on Saturday night, and while cold alone doesn't affect the passing game, it will be windy as well.
The wind always worries you with quarterback totals, and it will be gusty in Green Bay. Rodgers has not fared well against the 49ers in the playoffs, only averaging 253 yards per game against this Niners squad in his three playoffs games. For as well as Rodgers has played this season, he's only averaging 257 yards per game, which makes this total above seem ultra-high.
The Niners have only allowed an opposing quarterback to go over their season average in passing yards three times this year because of their ability to rush the passer on demand. Nick Bosa should be good to play this weekend, significantly benefiting the Niners. Rodgers' passer rating with no pressure is 122.6, but when he faces pressure, that number goes down to 53.9, the biggest drop in the NFL.
Lastly, we know the Packers tend to run the ball when they get a lead, so I expect a hefty dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion to seal this Packers win.
PICK: Aaron Rodgers under 285.5 passing yards at FOX Bet
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
San Francisco will attempt to limit the exposure of Jimmy Garoppolo in this game by rushing the ball. It's how they won in Los Angeles and Dallas. The Packers have the 28th ranked rushing defense and allow 4.7 yards per attempt.
I expect a heavy dose of Elijah Mitchell, who has seen more than 20 carries in six straight games. They won't deviate from their plan even if the Niners get behind, as we saw against the Rams in week 18.
We are going to see the 49ers run, run and more run, so I like the over prop for Mitchell.
PICK: Elijah Mitchell over 92.5 rushing yards at FOX Bet
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
This pick is not the best price on this wager, but heck yes, I'm in for it.
There's no offensive weapon quite like Deebo Samuel in the NFL at the moment. Deebo is No. 1 in the NFL yards after catch per reception and yards after catch over expected. He's also first in the NFL in yards per carry outside the tackles.
He's an explosive machine, and he's scored in eight of their last nine games. I love Deebo to score on Saturday night.
PICK: Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown at FOX Bet
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Byron Pringle has emerged as the No. 2 wide receiving option over the last month of the season as the Chiefs offense has started to play even better. We know Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will be eyed up by the Bills' secondary, so Patrick Mahomes will need another option to get this offense moving with Pringle.
I added Mecole Hardman in the mix because of the Chiefs' usage of the RPO run game and quick passes to the edge, which feature Hardman. The Chiefs know the Bills will have eyeballs on Hill and Kelce, so using these two weapons will be needed for them to move the ball.
PICK: Byron Pringle over 37.5 receiving yards at FOX Bet
PICK: Mecole Hardman over 34.5 receiving yards at FOX Bet
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
We are going back to the well for this one. Matthew Stafford didn't throw an interception last Monday night because he didn't have to throw the ball. The signal-caller only attempted 17 passes, but I don't expect this turnover machine to throw less than 30 times on Sunday.
The Bucs' defensive line is nasty, and Stafford will throw an interception when pressure is in his face on Sunday. He's thrown a pick in 12 of 18 games, including eight of them in the four weeks before the Arizona game.
PICK: Matthew Stafford to throw an interception at FOX Bet
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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