NFL odds: 5 underdogs you need to bet on in Week 1

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports betting analyst

We’re a few days away from the opening week of the 2021 NFL season, and it’s shaping up to be a very tight market, with seven games having point spreads of a field goal or less. In fact, there are no double-digit spreads.

Before you race to bet heavy favorites against teams that have no shot at the playoffs, just remember last year’s Week 1 stunner: Jacksonville, more than a touchdown underdog, shocked the Colts. And the Eagles, 5.5-point favorites on the road in Washington, wasted a 17-0 lead and lost by double digits.

An underdog winning at home against a divisional opponent in Week 1? We happen to have one of those this week!

Let’s break down the dogs with fleas (with all odds via FOX Bet).

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Dallas Cowboys +7.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Absolutely nobody is going to bet Dallas here. Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since October. Coach Mike McCarthy opens the season with the second-highest odds to get fired (Vic Fangio is first). The Bucs just became the first Super Bowl champs in the modern era to return all 22 starters on offense and defense. The last time we saw Tampa, it was mauling Patrick Mahomes.

Can the Dallas offensive line protect Prescott? Can the rebuilt Cowboys defense — four new starters and a new coordinator in Dan Quinn — stop Tom Brady?

When it all seems so certain, look the other way. Dallas won’t stop throwing — the Bucs had the No. 1-rated run defense in the league — and even if they’re getting blown out by 14 with two minutes left, the backdoor will remain open. If you get the hook, take it.

PICK: Cowboys (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)

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Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 at Buffalo Bills

The preseason narratives were in full effect for these two: The Steelers are cratering, and Big Ben is washed, while the Bills are Super Bowl contenders, and Josh Allen might win MVP.

Why would anyone back the Steelers here?

For starters, Mike Tomlin is one of the better motivators in the league, and he has a history of delivering as an underdog (38-19-2 in his career). As bad as the Steelers were last year, remember: They started 11-0 – yes, against a favorable schedule – before falling off a cliff late, including a loss in Buffalo in which Roethlisberger looked particularly bad (two INTs, a pick-six, 56% completion percentage, 5.1 yards per attempt).

The Steelers’ glaring weakness is a rebuilt offensive line with four new starters. The Bills' strength isn’t the pass rush. They were eighth in the NFL in blitz percentage last year yet ranked only 23rd in pressure rate. The secondary covered up a lot of front-seven mistakes, as the Bills were sixth in the NFL in missed tackles last season.

Of the five games here, I like the Steelers best. But I’d love to get a full touchdown.

PICK: Steelers (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

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Houston Texans +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Inarguable fact: The Texans have the worst roster in the NFL. Deshaun Watson was the only reason the Texans won four games last season, and he’s sidelined. The defense gave up 30-plus points in eight games last year. They also gave up 5.0 yards per carry, one of the worst figures the NFL has seen in the past decade.

All that said, why are they giving a field goal at home to the one-win Jaguars, who have a first-time NFL coach and a rookie QB? I like the Jags in this game, and I like them this season. But it’s not a long-term losing strategy to back a rookie QB as a favorite on the road. If you can stomach putting your hard-earned, after-tax dollars on a Tyrod Taylor-led team, fire away. The Texans will employ run-heavy sets and try to bully a below-average Jags defense with Mark Ingram, David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay splitting somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 carries.

PICK: Texans (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

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Detroit Lions +7.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Lions have been a punching bag all week. They don’t have a kicker on the roster! Quick, can you name two wide receivers on the Lions? The outlook is bleak, and come November, when they’re hurtling toward the top of the draft, maybe they'll bench Jared Goff to tank for the first pick.

Reality: This is the NFL, and being more than a 7-point road favorite is a tall task in Week 1. Even in 2019, when the 49ers went to the Super Bowl, they were just 1-2 as road favorites. Yes, San Francisco is one of the best teams in the league, and yes, the Lions are going nowhere, fast. Given Dan Campbell and Anthony Lynn calling the shots on offense, they’ll be pounding the run game … into the brick wall that is the 49ers' defense. Even though they were decimated by injuries last year, they still ranked 10th against the run.

There’s a chance the 49ers get more than 80% of the bets in this one. It's a classic Week 1 hold-your-nose-and-bet-the-dog.

PICK: Lions (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

Chicago Bears +7.5 at Los Angeles Rams

The Sunday night game is often referred to as the bail-out game or the chase game. It's your last chance to make some money on the day. Who is going to back Andy Dalton on the road against the team with the third-best Super Bowl futures odds in the NFC? The world will be on the Rams, and it’s going to be difficult to back the Bears, so wait until closer to kickoff and maybe you can get something closer to 10.

Just be aware: The Bears might field the worst offensive line in the NFL, and it’ll face Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd. Chicago’s four cornerbacks on the roster — against Sean McVay’s lethal offense — are second- or third-year players with a combined zero career interceptions.

The intestinal fortitude required to back the Bears in this spot is something few are capable of.

PICK: Bears (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.