NFL Hall of Fame Game: How to bet on Cowboys vs. Steelers
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Who’s ready to scratch that football betting itch?
For the first time in over six months, sports bettors can wager on an NFL football game. And you already know that Thursday night’s Hall of Fame Game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers will attract plenty of monetary interest at the betting window.
A lot of people will plunge into the preseason betting pool without much handicapping or homework. So and so likes the Cowboys solely because he loves Dak Prescott (even though Prescott is not playing tonight). Another guy likes the "Over" because the point total is "too low."
"There’s just no way they don’t get to 33 points," you’ll often hear from the bartender slinging your next drink across the counter.
Me? I prefer to pay real close attention to respected money from sharp players. A sharp is somebody who consistently beats the closing line by getting their money in at the best possible time – betting an underdog at +6 early in the week before the market ends up closing +4.5 at kickoff, for example – and is historically a winning bettor.
These players help shape the betting market and help sportsbooks get to the right number.
"NFL preseason is one of the sharpest markets there is," Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told me. "Lots of sharp players get involved. Maybe they get information that this team or that team is going to play its starters three quarters. It’s very information-driven and a very tough market to book. There’s not a lot of tourist dollars."
Murray and his bookmaking buddies tend to get extra aggressive in markets like the NFL preseason or NBA Summer League because there isn’t a whole lot of money wagered from recreational bettors.
But just how much can a sharp bettor move an NFL preseason line?
"It depends on the player," Murray explained. "But some of these groups that bet on the preseason are so good, and they move the market so much. We definitely want to get out ahead of it.
"Say a sharp account bets us Under 38.5; we might move it to 37 off one bet. You have to move pretty aggressively."
Not surprisingly, respected money has shown for the "Under" in tonight’s tilt.
"We took a sharp play Under 33.5 and we immediately moved it to 32.5 based on the history of the player," Murray reported.
The "Under" makes sense given that Dallas left 16 notable players at training camp. Surefire starters like Prescott, Amari Cooper, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence and Malik Hooker didn’t even make the trip to Canton.
Pittsburgh has been a little more tight-lipped with their inactives, but Ben Roethlisberger will be in street clothes, while it sounds like first-round draft pick Najee Harris will play a little bit.
The Steelers did confirm that Mason Rudolph will start at quarterback, Dwayne Haskins will follow and Joshua Dobbs will close.
You can just picture all the offensive fireworks, can’t you?
I’ll roll with the respected money and go "Under" 32.5 in the Hall of Fame Game at FOX Bet. Expect plenty of disjointed plays and punts in a game that could realistically finish with a 17-10 final score.
No pick-sixes, please.
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Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.