NFL draft scenarios: 8 teams have a shot at top-5 draft pick going into Week 18
The NFL has set itself up for a huge final weekend, with 20 teams still in contention for a trip to Super Bowl LVIII. It's the most teams that have remained alive in the final week of the season in 41 years.
That's swell for those who enjoy success. But don't forget about the rest of the NFL — the teams who were good at being bad this season. There's a heck of a race building up in the dark underbelly of the NFL, where eight teams have a shot at a top-five pick in next year's draft.
That's not a bad consolation prize for the NFL's biggest losers, especially considering three quarterbacks have a shot at being taken in that top five.
So you can imagine at least a few GMs will be silently rooting for a loss this weekend — unless, of course, they're about to be fired. The good news for them is that all but one of the non-elite eight will be at home for their finale, where their disgruntled fans can either boo them or not show up at all. And six of them are playing teams still in contention — games they absolutely should lose.
But anything can still happen. Well, almost anything. The Carolina Panthers have locked themselves into the top pick — or at least they would have if they hadn't traded it away to the Chicago Bears in a deal to get Bryce Young last April. But picks two through five are still up in the air.
Here's a look at the race towards the bottom of the barrel, based on the current order of picks:
1. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
(Pick belongs to the Chicago Bears)
This week: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
It's no wonder Panthers owner David Tepper is throwing drinks. His terrible team would have a shot at a franchise-changing quarterback right now if they hadn't dealt their first-round pick to the Chicago Bears last year for the chance to move up from 9 to 1 in the 2023 NFL Draft and — no shade on Bryce Young — pass on C.J. Stroud. The only drama here is wondering what Tepper will throw next, because it's hard to see this terrible team beating the Bucs, who need a win to clinch the NFC South.
Top-five scenarios: They … I mean the Bears … are locked into the No. 1 pick no matter what happens this weekend.
What they'd do with the top pick: The Panthers, of course, won't do anything with it. But the Bears are going to add a new quarterback, arent they? The only questions may be: Which quarterback — USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye or LSU's Jayden Daniels? And what can they get for Justin Fields in a trade?
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2. Washington Commanders (4-12)
This week: vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
If they faced anyone other than the Cowboys, there'd be no question the Ron Rivera Era would end in Washington on an eight-game losing streak. It probably still will since the Cowboys (3-5 on the road) would clinch the NFC East with a win. Also, the only thing left to play for in Washington is pride, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of that left in the Commanders locker room. They look and play like a team that knows big changes are coming — because they are.
Top-five scenarios: Lose and they will almost certainly pick second, which makes this job even more attractive for GM and head coach candidates. They'll still be in the top five with a win, but it could be as low as No. 5.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: It's hard to say without knowing who new owner Josh Harris puts in charge, but Sam Howell hasn't exactly made the case for himself as the franchise quarterback over the last month. The best guess is the new regime will want their own QB and wouldn't pass on Williams, Daniels or Maye.
3. New England Patriots (4-12)
This week: vs. New York Jets (6-10)
What a juicy game for storylines. This could be Bill Belichick's finale in New England. There's no way he wants to go out with a loss to the team he hates the most, right? Plus, he probably has no interest in helping bolster the draft position for the next person to run the Patriots. You can bet he wants to go out in a blaze of glory. That's why it has the makings of a 57-3 Patriots win — though, given the talent he has on the roster, Belichick might have to settle for 7-3.
Top-five scenarios: They'll pick second or third with a loss, depending on what happens in Washington and with their close strength of schedule tie-breaker with the Commanders. A win could drop them as low as fifth.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: Whoever is in charge will likely rush to the podium to take the best available quarterback faster than anyone can say "Bailey Zappe."
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4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
This week: vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
It's nice that Jonathan Gannon enjoyed the win against his old team in Philadelphia last Sunday, because that didn't just screw up the Eagles' season — it might have cost his team at least two spots in the NFL Draft. He had better hope his team isn't energized by that win, because their fall in the draft order could end up being a lot bigger than that.
Top-five scenarios: They still have a shot at the No. 2 pick with a loss, but are more likely to end up fourth. If they win, though, they could fall to seventh because they would lose the strength-of-schedule tie-breaker to any team in the top seven.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: Don't rule out a quarterback, as they could decide to trade Kyler Murray. But if they keep him, Murray and Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. could make a heck of a duo, and potentially give Arizona its best pass-catcher since Larry Fitzgerald Jr.
5. New York Giants (5-11)
This week: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
The Giants have lost five straight to the Eagles, 13 of 15 and 17 of 20. But they did play the Eagles tough in Philly two weeks ago (a 33-25 loss) and nearly beat the playoff-bound L.A. Rams last Sunday. The Giants seem to be fighting until the end and don't look like a team interested in next year's draft. They're also facing an Eagles team that is rolling over, having lost four of their last five. This could be an upset special.
Top-five scenarios: A loss locks the Giants into no lower than the fifth pick, and they could go as high as No. 2 with a little help. With a win, they could fall as low as eighth if things break wrong.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: They say they are committed to Daniel Jones at QB, so they'd probably be more interested in a receiver like Harrison or a top offensive lineman like Notre Dame's Joe Alt. But if they do get as high as 2 or 3, a quarterback will be very tempting.
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6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
This week: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
The Chargers have fought hard the last two weeks under interim coach Giff Smith, but they still look like a team ready to go home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs need some momentum heading into a tough AFC playoff bracket. The Chargers should be a good boost for their ego.
Top-five scenarios: It probably doesn't matter since they're the rare team in this group that doesn't need a quarterback, but a loss could push them as high as fourth. Win and they might end up eighth.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: What they needed most was a new coach, but now that Brandon Staley has been fired, they probably should take the best available defensive player — perhaps Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. Then again, considering their offense is very reliant on Keenan Allen and he turns 32 in April, maybe Harrison Jr. is a better bet. Trading out of the top five to add depth could also be enticing.
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7. Tennessee Titans (5-11)
This week: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
A Mike Vrabel team isn't going to roll over, though their fate probably depends on whether quarterback Will Levis can play for the Titans — and whether quarterback Trevor Lawrencecan suit up for the Jaguars.
Top-five scenarios: They're most likely stuck at No. 7, though a loss could get them as high as No. 4 and a win could drop them to eighth.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: Since Levis looks like he might be a keeper, the Titans need to protect him. They wouldn't hesitate to start the run on offensive linemen in the top five.
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8. New York Jets (6-10)
This week: at New England Patriots (4-12)
The Jets have lost 15 straight to the Patriots dating back to 2015. It would be just like Belichick, though, to let them win this game just to hurt their draft position, wouldn't it? OK, maybe not.
Top-five scenarios: The Jets have the worst strength of schedule among the bottom eight teams, which is a huge advantage. With a loss, they could end up picking fifth (if the Giants, Chargers and Titans all win). With a win, though, they actually could fall to No. 12.
What they'd do with a top-five pick: Whatever Aaron Rodgers wants them to do. So forget a quarterback or defense. He'll want Harrison or the best tackle if they're in the top five — or maybe even advocate for trading the selection to add veteran help.
Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.