NFL Draft 2022: Why QB Malik Willis could be a top-10 pick

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

The quarterback class entering the 2022 NFL Draft comes with more questions than answers, but one thing is undeniable: When it comes to sheer upside with this group, Malik Willis is in a class by himself.

After all, even the biggest critics of the Liberty quarterback are willing to acknowledge that, in comparison to the rest of this year’s QB crop, Willis possesses unrivaled athleticism and arm strength.

Of course, those doubters quickly (and correctly) point out that elite physical traits do not guarantee NFL success at the quarterback position. First-round flameouts such as Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch have certainly proven that much to be true.  

A year ago, a much different quarterback was the most hotly debated QB of his draft class — then-Alabama "game manager" Mac Jones. The widely varied opinions on Jones prior to the draft prompted a deep dive into his game. After watching literally every throw Jones made in guiding Alabama to a national title, his performance at the Senior Bowl, NFL Scouting Combine and the Crimson Tide's pro day, I ultimately concluded that he was, in fact, worthy of a top-10 pick.

Of course, he slipped a little further than that, going No. 15 overall to the New England Patriots. Jones then "surprisingly" won the starting job in camp, prompting the Patriots to release Cam Newton. Drafted fifth at the position, Jones was the only rookie quarterback to lead his team to a playoff berth, completing 67.6% of his passes (second-highest by a rookie in NFL history to Dak Prescott's 67.8). He also led rookies with 22 passing touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

To be clear, this is not to suggest Jones and Willis are similar prospects. Frankly, they could not be much different in style and traits. There is, however, at least one thing they have in common: If drafted into the right systems, both are very much top-10 worthy.

Among the current starting quarterbacks in the NFL, Willis reminds me most of Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts.

However, for those old enough to remember a redshirt sophomore out of Virginia Tech back in 2001 — some guy named Michael Vick — the former No. 1 overall selection actually serves as the cleaner comparison for Willis. The two feature similar frames, velocity, mobility and, unfortunately, early limitations in the passing game.

Vick measured at an even 6-foot, 210 pounds at the 2001 combine. This spring, Willis came in half an inch taller and nine pounds heavier. Before we get to their magical arms, let’s focus on the sheer athletic ability that separates them from at least 99% of the NFL quarterbacks who have preceded them.

Both have the elusiveness normally seen from a running back or wide receiver, shaking defenders in tight spaces with excellent lateral agility, balance and burst. Both accelerate in a flash, ruining pursuit angles and leaving defenders in the dust with exceptional top-end speed for the position. Both are savvy enough to slide or get to the sideline, but they both also possess the compact frame and toughness to simply lower their shoulder and bully when necessary.

Just like with Vick, it is easy to get distracted by Willis' quick feet and by the sheer velocity he generates on the ball. Frankly, both quarterbacks have been robbed of the praise they deserve for underrated accuracy on intermediate and deep passes simply because of the distracting vapor trails left behind by their throws.

Willis can shred zone, delivering strikes between the layers of the defense and consistently throwing pass-catchers open against man coverage, as well, leading receivers away from contact.

He has a quick release, sling-shotting the ball effortlessly and making it extremely difficult for defensive backs to make plays on the ball before it arrives to his intended target. Like most quarterbacks, Willis is most accurate when his feet are set, but his rare arm strength is most impressive when he has to hurl the ball with defenders at his feet, limiting his ability to step toward his target.

On these occasions, Willis’ raw arm strength really stands out, as it does when he is throwing on the run, where he shows not only velocity, but touch and precise ball-placement.

It isn’t fair to just tout Willis’ physical talents, however. I was just as impressed with the poise and leadership he demonstrated on and off the turf at the Senior Bowl, as well as his combine and pro day workouts.

Revisionist history will tell you that Willis dominated the Senior Bowl. In reality, he shook off a worrisome start to finish strong, winning the respect of his teammates and coaches on the American Team along the way.

Understandably eager to show off the strongest arm in this year’s draft class, Willis airmailed a few throws in Tuesday’s practice and contributed to a few drops by receivers because he threw short and intermediate passes with unnecessary velocity.

Willis threw the ball better Wednesday and enjoyed his best performance of the week a day later, in a practice few were allowed to see. Thunder, lightning and tornado warnings required that practice to be moved from Hancock-Whitney Stadium to the University of South Alabama’s covered facility. With no stands or press boxes and limited space on the sidelines, the Senior Bowl had no choice but to reduce the number of attendants, allowing no fans, just a handful of representatives for each team and very few media.

Willis showed greater polish in the red-zone drills during Thursday’s practice, firing several impressive touchdowns. He wrapped up the day by winning an accuracy contest with fellow American quarterbacks Sam Howell (North Carolina) and Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky).

As noted in this post-Senior Bowl breakdown of all six participating quarterbacks, Thursday’s throwing contest required the QBs to lob the ball into a trash can from 30 yards away. Willis was the most accurate of the trio, with his last two (of three) passes rimming off.

On its own, the contest is little more than a trick shot. NFL scouts know that. But winning it says something about Willis’ poise in the spotlight, especially considering that immediately before the quarterbacks threw, acting head coach Duce Staley instructed the American Team players to stand next to the passer they believed would win the competition.

More than half of his teammates immediately shifted toward Willis, with the other half roughly mixed in choosing between Howell, a three-time All-ACC pick, and Zappe, who led the nation with a video game-like 62 touchdowns in 2021.

That is a pretty impressive job of winning over teammates, considering Willis’ inaccuracies just two days earlier.  

Willis surprised some by choosing not to participate in any of the measured drills at the combine, opting only to throw and meet with teams and the media.

Not surprisingly, his velocity stood out at the combine. With greater attention paid to keeping his feet square, Willis threw the ball with impressive accuracy as well.

As good as he was on the turf at Lucas Oil Stadium, however, Willis was even better off of it. He made fans out of critics during the interviews with NFL teams and in the press conference with media. He also showed his heart on the streets of Indianapolis.

Ideally, quarterbacks have natural leadership skills. Willis came off as genuine and comfortable amid the bright spotlight.

That same ease was even more obvious throughout his March 22 pro day, despite the fact representatives of all 32 NFL teams were there. That included four general managers with especially sizable contingents from QB-needy clubs like the Carolina Panthers (owners of the No. 6 overall pick), Seattle Seahawks (No. 9) and Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20).

Willis wasn’t perfect on the day — forcing receivers to wait a few times and overthrowing a deep ball, but he delivered consistently catchable throws, showing good accuracy on the rollout and better touch on short routes. He completed 64 of 69 passes overall, with three drops.

When a teammate lost his concentration and dropped an easy quick out for the first drop, Willis motioned to him to "brush it off" and chuckled before firing his next strike. The drop actually seemed to break the ice in the workout, as Willis wore an even bigger smile the rest of the time, befitting an easy-going workout.

His final throw was arguably the most impressive of the day, a 70-yard dime off of a spin and rollout to his left. The ball nestled into the waiting arms of his receiver just as he crossed the goal line, perfectly in stride.

Willis ran the field to celebrate with his receiver, whooping it up for the crowd and reveling in the moment.  

With Willis, so much is just easy — the athleticism, the velocity.   

Even with all of Willis' impressive traits, projecting his career in the NFL is far from simple.

Ignore for a moment the gulf in the level of competition he faces in jumping from a Liberty schedule that included the likes of Campbell, Old Dominion and North Texas a year ago to the NFL.

The offense he starred in at Liberty under former Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze is a relatively simple one by NFL quarterback standards. Typically, QBs are asked to make half-field reads with a lot of run-pass-options.

In the NFL, Willis will be asked to make twice as many reads in half the time, an adjustment that scouts believe could take a year or more.

And it isn’t just that Willis will need a crash course in reading defenses. When he was hurried at Liberty, he typically resorted to his legs, shifting his eyes from the secondary to the pass rush and becoming a running back.

That approach has yet to consistently work at quarterback in the modern-day NFL, and the only way Willis is likely to master this adjustment is by playing, meaning he might need another year or more to acclimate to the speed of the game.

With perhaps half of his initial four-year rookie contract likely to be spent in the developmental phase, it is easy to understand why NFL teams would be hesitant to invest an early first round pick in Willis.

Any club expecting its prized rookie QB to challenge for meaningful snaps in 2022 will likely rank some of the other, more polished passers of this class higher. Those QBs include Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral and, possibly, Howell.

But raw talents such as Willis do not come around very often. If he is, in fact, able to connect the dots, Willis could be special. In a draft full of quarterbacks who can help their teams win without necessarily being the catalyst, Willis has All-Pro potential.

Which is why no one should be surprised if some bold club invests a top-10 pick in him later this month.     

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.