NFL divisional round odds: How to bet Jaguars-Chiefs

The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC divisional round matchup.

Jacksonville is coming off an incredible comeback win over the Chargers on Super Wild Card weekend. The Jags rallied from a 27-0 deficit to earn the 31-30 victory over the visiting Bolts. Los Angeles' meltdown made way for Duval to make the third-biggest comeback in NFL postseason history.

While the Jags were making history, the conference's No. 1 seed, the Chiefs, were at home resting.

Which squad gets a tally in the win column to advance to the conference championship round — the comeback kids or the top seed?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Jaguars-Chiefs game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC

Point spread: Chiefs -8.5 (Chiefs favored to win by more than 8.5 points, otherwise Jaguars cover)
Moneyline: Chiefs -455 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.20 total); Jaguars +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 52.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

The Chiefs have been outstanding at moving the ball and scoring points in their first playoff games of each postseason with coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This is a home game for them, and they're facing an opponent that won't be good enough to slow down their offense.

The Chiefs scored 31 points against the Colts in the 2018 season playoffs, then famously scored 51 against the Texans in 2019. In 2020, K.C. scored only 22 points against the Browns, but remember, Mahomes got hurt in the third quarter and the Chiefs did not score after he left the game. Finally, the Chiefs scored 42 against the Steelers last season in the wild-card round.

This season, the Chiefs rank first in offensive DVOA, first in offensive EPA, first in scoring and second in third down conversion rate. Jacksonville’s defense finished the regular season ranked 26th in defensive DVOA and 29th on third down. Additionally, the Jaguars' defense was 24th in red zone touchdown percentage. These teams faced each other in Week 10, and in that matchup, Kansas City only scored 27 points in a B-minus performance. However, I expect the Chiefs to put up a ton of points in this matchup.

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said this week that he understands points need to be scored in this game. This means he will have an aggressive game plan. This also means the Chiefs will have to match that aggressiveness by scoring points of their own.

PICK: Over 52.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Kansas City Chiefs have the NFL’s best offense, and there’s not even a remotely close second.

They gain a first down on 31% of their early-down plays. To lend some perspective, the third most efficient offense in that metric is closer to the league average than to the Chiefs.

The Chiefs also gain +0.10 EPA/play on early downs, which is also first in the NFL. The NFL average is -0.02. There is no other team above +0.04.

It’s also their most efficient offense since 2018.

And to add further context, the Chiefs offense has ranked this well despite facing the NFL’s seventh-toughest schedule of opposing defenses. On the season, the Chiefs have played 10 defenses that rank above average.

They’ve played just four games against teams with bottom-10 defenses. They’re 4-0 in those games, winning by an average final score of 33-20.

Now?

They face the 27th-ranked defense of the Jaguars.

While the Chiefs' offense has earned their No. 1 the hard way, playing the seventh-toughest schedule, the Jaguars' 27th-ranked defense had the good fortune of playing the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

They’ve played just five offenses that ranked above average this year other than Kansas City:

Lost 29-21 to No. 3 Philadelphia
Lost 23-17 to No. 12 NY Giants
Lost 40-14 to No. 6 Detroit
Lost 27-17 to No. 1 Kansas City
Won 40-34 vs. No. 14 Dallas
Won 28-27 vs. No. 10 Baltimore

They trailed the Ravens in the fourth quarter 19-10 and then 27-20 before scoring with 14 seconds left and going for a two-point conversion to win the game.

They trailed the Cowboys 27-10 in the third quarter and 34-31 before scoring on the final play of regulation to tie the game at 34-34, and then returned an interception for a touchdown in overtime to win 40-34.

The bottom line – they allowed 31 points per game (PPG) in these games, they trailed at halftime in five of six by an average of nine PPG, and they trailed entering the fourth quarter in five of six by an average of 7 PPG.

Now that we know what the Chiefs have done vs. bottom-10 defenses (scored 33 PPG, went 4-0, won by 13 PPG) and what the Jaguars have done vs. top-15 offenses (allowed 31 PPG, would have gone 0-6, but for erasing multi-score deficits including scores with less than 15 seconds left in the game to either win or force overtime), let’s look at the matchup in more detail.

Trevor Lawrence has improved dramatically down the season's stretch working with Doug Pederson. This year, Lawrence started off slowly under Pederson. Over the first half of the year, he ranked 23rd in YPA, 14th in EPA/att and 13th in success rate.

But since Week 9, Lawrence ranks in the top 10 in all three metrics, including second in EPA/att, immediately ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

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But one of the areas Lawrence has played so well in has been vs. man coverage. In fact, Lawrence is No. 1 in the NFL vs. man coverage over the second half of the season.

But while the Chiefs do play their share of man, they also play two-high shell at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and the highest rate of any team remaining in the playoffs. And Lawrence ranks No. 19 vs. two-high shell defense. Against non-two-high, he ranks third-best in EPA/att, but drops down to 19th over the second half of the season.

In their first meeting, his splits:

vs. two-high: -0.24 EPA/att, 29% success, 4.7 YPA, 65% completions on 20 dropbacks
vs. non-two-high: +0.35 EPA/att, 50% success, 7.8 YPA, 78% completions on 28 dropbacks

The Chiefs would be wise to reduce their rate of man coverage and lean more into two-high defense in this game.

Lawrence has large splits when he is pressured and the story was similar vs. the Chiefs in Week 10:

Pressured: -0.52 EPA/att, 39% success, 6.8 YPA, 67% completions, 5 sacks on 13 dropbacks
Clean: +0.33 EPA/att, 42% success, 6.4 YPA, 74% completions, 0 sacks on 35 dropbacks

Since that Week 10 game, the Chiefs' defense ranks fourth in pressure rate.

And Lawrence still has issues dealing with pressure. Last week’s wild-card game:

Pressured: -1.19 EPA/att, 17% success, 1.7 YPA, 22% completions, 2 sacks and 2 INTs
Clean: +0.27 EPA/att, 55% success, 7.2 YPA, 68% completions, 0 sacks, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

On the other side of the ball, we’ve mentioned how efficient the Chiefs' offense is in general. But where they should really try to focus on this game is attacking the Jaguars through the air and upping their play-action rate substantially.

The Jaguars are extremely weak vs. play action, ranking 26th in EPA/att and 31st in success rate vs. play action this year, and that’s grown even worse.

Since Week 10, the Jaguars rank dead last in EPA/att and success rate vs. play action on early downs in the game’s first three quarters:

Vs. play action: +0.44 EPA/att (32nd), 64% success (32nd), 9.9 YPA (28th)
No play action: -0.10 EPA/att (eighth), 43% success (13th), 5.4 YPA (fourth)

The Chiefs don’t use high rates of play action (20th in usage rate) because Mahomes doesn’t need it and ranks sixth in EPA/att without it.

But they should absolutely reduce their usage of RB runs and increase their usage of play action in this game. In their prior Week 10 meeting, Mahomes went:

With play action: +0.72 EPA/att, 71% success, 11.7 YPA, 77% completions, 2:0 TD:INT on 14 attempts
No play action: +0.42 EPA/att, 57% success, 8.1 YPA, 73% completions, 2:1 TD:INT on 26 attempts

The reason the Chiefs should reduce running runs is that the Jaguars' run defense ranks 12th while their pass defense ranks 29th. And in their prior meeting in Week 10, Chiefs running back runs averaged -0.46 EPA/att and only 33% success, whereas passes averaged +0.53 EPA/att and 65% success.

I expect the Chiefs to have success scoring. This game will come down to how well the Jags start and if they can keep up, but the Chiefs do look good in a teaser.

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